Raleigh, N.C. — All three match ups tested in PPP’s February poll of the Wisconsin Senate race have tightened, according to the latest poll in the state. Meanwhile, businessman Eric Hovde, who was not included in the last PPP poll, has taken the lead in the Republican primary with a lead of 31% to 29% over former Governor Tommy Thompson, and leads Rep. Tammy Baldwin in a potential general election matchup, 45% to 44%.

Baldwin’s general election lead dropped from 8 to 4 points against Jeff Fitzgerald, 6 to 4 points against Mark Neumann, and she is now tied against Thompson after leading him by 1 in the last PPP poll. Baldwin has seen her net favorability rating stay relatively constant, despite a decline in Independent voters from +7 to even.

Thompson’s has dropped from -1 to -7 since February. This decline is due to turnarounds of net -17% among Republicans, -11% among voters describing themselves as somewhat conservative, and -20% among very conservative voters. Hovde is the only candidate with a net positive approval rating, at +4, but also has the lowest name recognition, with 42% of respondents unable to form an opinion of him.

The Republican primary has become a two man race, with both Jeff Fitzgerald and Mark Neumann seeing significant drops in support of 13% and 6% respectively. Hovde’s lead comes from an 18 point advantage over Thompson with voters who identified with the Tea Party and a 14 point lead with Independents. Hovde seems to have gathered much of his support from the 50% of GOP voters who would prefer a candidate more conservative than Thompson.

“Tommy Thompson is looking very endangered in the Wisconsin Senate race,” said Dean Debnam, President of Public Policy Polling. “Eric Hovde has a very good chance at pulling an upset in the primary. Whether the eventual Republican standard bearer is Thompson or Hovde, this is a race that looks like it will be close in the fall.”

PPP surveyed 1,057 Wisconsin voters, as well as an oversample of 564 usual Republican primary voters, from July 5th to 8th. The margin of error for the survey is +/-3%, and +/-4.1% for the primary sample.  This poll was not paid for or authorized by any campaign or political organization. PPP surveys are conducted through automated telephone interviews.

Topline results are below.  Full results, including crosstabs, can be found here.

Republican Primary Toplines

Q1 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Jeff Fitzgerald?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 42%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 12%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 46%

Q2 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Eric Hovde?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 50%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 9%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 41%

Q3 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Mark Neumann?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 43%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 21%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 36%

Q4 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Tommy Thompson?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 56%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 28%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 16%

Q5 The Republican candidates for Senate are Jeff
Fitzgerald, Eric Hovde, Mark Neumann, and
Tommy Thompson. If the election was today,
who would you vote for?
Jeff Fitzgerald …………………………………………. 9%
Eric Hovde ……………………………………………… 31%
Mark Neumann ……………………………………….. 15%
Tommy Thompson …………………………………… 29%
Undecided………………………………………………. 16%

Q6 If the Republican candidates for Senate were
just Eric Hovde, Mark Neumann, and Tommy
Thompson, who would you vote for?
Eric Hovde ……………………………………………… 35%
Mark Neumann ……………………………………….. 18%
Tommy Thompson …………………………………… 34%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 14%

Q7 If the Republican candidates for Senate were
just Eric Hovde and Tommy Thompson, who
would you vote for?
Eric Hovde ……………………………………………… 46%
Tommy Thompson …………………………………… 39%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 15%

Q8 If the Republican candidates for Senate were
just Mark Neumann and Tommy Thompson,
who would you vote for?
Mark Neumann ……………………………………….. 38%
Tommy Thompson …………………………………… 46%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 16%

Q9 Generally speaking, would you prefer that the
Republican Senate nominee next year was
Tommy Thompson or someone more
conservative?
Tommy Thompson …………………………………… 34%
Someone more conservative …………………….. 50%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 17%

Q10 Do you consider yourself to be a member of
the Tea Party?
Yes………………………………………………………… 25%
No …………………………………………………………. 58%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 17%

Q11 Would you describe yourself as very liberal,
somewhat liberal, moderate, somewhat
conservative, or very conservative?
Very liberal ……………………………………………… 1%
Somewhat liberal …………………………………….. 3%
Moderate………………………………………………… 15%
Somewhat conservative……………………………. 44%
Very conservative ……………………………………. 37%

Q12 If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2.
Woman ………………………………………………….. 51%
Man……………………………………………………….. 49%

Q13 If you are a Democrat, press 1. If a Republican,
press 2. If you are an independent or identify
with another party, press 3.
Democrat ……………………………………………….. 2%
Republican……………………………………………… 65%
Independent/Other…………………………………… 33%

Q14 If you are 18 to 45 years old, press 1. If 46 to
65, press 2. If you are older than 65, press 3.
18 to 45………………………………………………….. 32%
46 to 65………………………………………………….. 39%
Older than 65………………………………………….. 29%

General Election Toplines

Q1 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Tammy Baldwin?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 37%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 39%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 24%

Q2 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Jeff Fitzgerald?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 25%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 38%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 37%

Q3 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Eric Hovde?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 31%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 27%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 42%

Q4 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Mark Neumann?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 28%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 34%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 38%

Q5 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Tommy Thompson?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 40%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 47%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 13%

Q6 If the candidates for US Senate this fall were
Democrat Tammy Baldwin and Republican Jeff
Fitzgerald, who would you vote for?
Tammy Baldwin……………………………………….. 46%
Jeff Fitzgerald …………………………………………. 42%
Undecided………………………………………………. 11%

Q7 If the candidates for US Senate this fall were
Democrat Tammy Baldwin and Republican Eric
Hovde, who would you vote for?
Tammy Baldwin……………………………………….. 44%
Eric Hovde ……………………………………………… 45%
Undecided………………………………………………. 11%

Q8 If the candidates for US Senate this fall were
Democrat Tammy Baldwin and Republican
Mark Neumann, who would you vote for?
Tammy Baldwin……………………………………….. 45%
Mark Neumann ……………………………………….. 41%
Undecided………………………………………………. 13%

Q9 If the candidates for US Senate this fall were
Democrat Tammy Baldwin and Republican
Tommy Thompson, who would you vote for?
Tammy Baldwin……………………………………….. 45%
Tommy Thompson …………………………………… 45%
Undecided………………………………………………. 11%

Q10 Who did you vote for President in 2008?
John McCain…………………………………………… 46%
Barack Obama………………………………………… 46%
Someone else/Don’t remember …………………. 8%

Q11 Would you describe yourself as very liberal,
somewhat liberal, moderate, somewhat
conservative, or very conservative?
Very liberal ……………………………………………… 10%
Somewhat liberal …………………………………….. 18%
Moderate………………………………………………… 28%
Somewhat conservative……………………………. 26%
Very conservative ……………………………………. 18%

Q12 If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2.
Woman ………………………………………………….. 51%
Man……………………………………………………….. 49%

Q13 If you are a Democrat, press 1. If a Republican,
press 2. If you are an independent or identify
with another party, press 3.
Democrat ……………………………………………….. 30%
Republican……………………………………………… 32%
Independent/Other…………………………………… 38%

Q14 If you are white, press 1. If other, press 2.
White …………………………………………………….. 90%
Other……………………………………………………… 10%

Q15 If you are 18 to 29 years old, press 1. If 30 to
45, press 2. If 46 to 65, press 3. If you are
older than 65, press 4.
18 to 29………………………………………………….. 12%
30 to 45………………………………………………….. 24%
46 to 65………………………………………………….. 44%
Older than 65………………………………………….. 20%