Raleigh, N.C. – It was probably never on any Democrat’s list of targets for next year, but the Mississippi Senate race looks out of reach for whichever Democrat agrees to be their sacrificial lamb against freshman Roger Wicker. 56% approve and 23% disapprove of Wicker’s performance, up from 51-23 when PPP last polled the state in March. That ties him for the seventh most popular of 87 sitting senators on which PPP has polled. While Wicker does not match that +33 approval margin in the re-election horse races, he leads any Democrat thrown at him by 13 to 26 points, up from 10 to 18.
Wicker’s closest matchup at this point would be against Attorney General Jim Hood, who was overwhelmingly re-elected yesterday. Wicker tops him by 13 points (52-39), making Hood the only of the five tested opponents who does even a point better than he did in March. Against the others, Wicker has gained. He tops former A.G. Mike Moore by 14 points (53-39), up four from March. Wicker leads former Rep. Gene Taylor by 21 (55-34), up nine. He also leads his 2008 opponent, former Gov. Ronnie Musgrove, by 25 (58-33), up eight from March and 14 or 15 from three years ago. Finally, Wicker leads Rep. Travis Childers by 26 (56-30), up eight.
Wicker fails to match his approval margin because while 26% of Democrats approve of his work (which is actually down from 33% in March), only eight to 16% of them are voting for him. The Democrats actually do a better job at converting GOP disapproval into votes than he does Democratic approval into votes. Only 7% of Wicker’s party dislikes what he is doing in office, but 6-13% of them are pledging for the opposition. Wicker leads with independents by margins of 12 to a whopping 42 points.
“Even if Democrats recruited a first-tier candidate into this race, they’d still start out behind by double digits,” said Dean Debnam, President of Public Policy Polling. “Mississippi just isn’t going to provide a lot of opportunities for the party at the federal level any time soon.”
PPP surveyed 796 likely Mississippi voters from November 4th to 6th. The margin of error for the survey is +/-3.5%. This poll was not paid for or authorized by any campaign or political organization. PPP surveys are conducted through automated telephone interviews. PPP is a Democratic polling company, but polling expert Nate Silver of the New York Times found that its surveys in 2010 actually exhibited a slight bias toward Republican candidates.
Topline results are below. Full results, including crosstabs, can be found here.
Q1 Do you approve or disapprove of Senator Thad
Cochran’s job performance?
Approve …………….. .57%
Disapprove…………. .22%
Not sure …………….. .21%
Q2 Do you approve or disapprove of Senator
Roger Wicker’s job performance?
Approve …………….. .56%
Disapprove…………. .23%
Not sure …………….. .21%
Q3 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Travis Childers?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 22%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 23%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 54%
Q4 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Mike Moore?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 29%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 25%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 46%
Q5 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Ronnie Musgrove?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 37%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 38%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 24%
Q6 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Gene Taylor?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 33%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 27%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 41%
Q7 If the candidates for Senate next year were
Democrat Travis Childers and Republican
Roger Wicker, who would you vote for?
Travis Childers ………………………………………… 30%
Roger Wicker ………………………………………….. 56%
Undecided………………………………………………. 13%
Q8 If the candidates for Senate next year were
Democrat Jim Hood and Republican Roger
Wicker, who would you vote for?
Jim Hood………………………………………………… 39%
Roger Wicker ………………………………………….. 52%
Undecided………………………………………………. 9%
Q9 If the candidates for Senate next year were
Democrat Mike Moore and Republican Roger
Wicker, who would you vote for?
Mike Moore…………………………………………….. 39%
Roger Wicker ………………………………………….. 53%
Undecided………………………………………………. 8%
Q10 If the candidates for Senate next year were
Democrat Ronnie Musgrove and Republican
Roger Wicker, who would you vote for?
Ronnie Musgrove…………………………………….. 33%
Roger Wicker ………………………………………….. 58%
Undecided………………………………………………. 9%
Q11 If the candidates for Senate next year were
Democrat Gene Taylor and Republican Roger
Wicker, who would you vote for?
Gene Taylor ……………………………………………. 34%
Roger Wicker ………………………………………….. 55%
Undecided………………………………………………. 11%
Q12 Who did you vote for President in 2008?
John McCain…………………………………………… 54%
Barack Obama………………………………………… 40%
Someone else/Don’t remember …………………. 6%
Q13 Would you describe yourself as very liberal,
somewhat liberal, moderate, somewhat
conservative, or very conservative?
Very liberal ……………………………………………… 12%
Somewhat liberal …………………………………….. 10%
Moderate………………………………………………… 21%
Somewhat conservative……………………………. 25%
Very conservative ……………………………………. 32%
Q14 If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2.
Woman ………………………………………………….. 54%
Man……………………………………………………….. 46%
Q15 If you are a Democrat, press 1. If a Republican,
press 2. If you are an independent or identify
with another party, press 3.
Democrat ……………………………………………….. 39%
Republican……………………………………………… 47%
Independent/Other…………………………………… 14%
Q16 If you are white, press 1. If African-American,
press 2. If other, press 3.
White …………………………………………………….. 66%
African-American …………………………………….. 30%
Other……………………………………………………… 3%
Q17 If you are 18 to 29 years old, press 1. If 30 to
45, press 2. If 46 to 65, press 3. If you are
older than 65, press 4.
18 to 29………………………………………………….. 16%
30 to 45………………………………………………….. 22%
46 to 65………………………………………………….. 37%
Older than 65………………………………………….. 25%
