Raleigh, N.C. – Roger Wicker won the special election to complete Trent Lott’s fourth term in the Senate in 2008 by ten points over former Governor Ronnie Musgrove. If Wicker’s bid for a full term next fall were today, Musgrove would not come nearly that close, and no other Democrat would get within single digits. Musgrove trails by 17 points, 52-35. The only Democrat to match Musgrove’s defeat margin from three years ago is former Attorney General Mike Moore, who trails Wicker 48-38. Recently ousted Rep. Gene Taylor lags, 48-36. Current Attorney General Jim Hood is down 50-36. And another defeated Congressman, Travis Childers, is behind by the widest margin, 51-33.
Wicker is very well liked, particularly for such a new senator. Though over a quarter have no opinion of the job he is doing in D.C., his 51-23 spread among those who do ties him with Maine’s Olympia Snowe for the eighth most popular of 83 senators on which PPP has polled in the last year. Even the state’s pretty conservative Democrats like him, albeit narrowly, 33-29, to go along with 73% of his own party and a 46-36 spread with independents.
That extraordinary favor with the opposite party does not quite carry over to the horseraces, but Wicker does still win 13-18% of the Democrats’ votes, while they can only muster 6-11% of the GOP. Independents do stick with Wicker and then some, favoring him over the Democrats by margins of 17 (against Childers) to 28 points (versus Hood).
Hood and Moore are the only two Democrats with significant favor. Hood’s 43-26 favorability spread and Moore’s 39-23 are very good for Democrats in this state. They are just barely disliked across the aisle and roughly break even with independents. But voters still prefer to elect a Republican. Musgrove and Childers are narrowly disliked, 37-40 and 22-26, respectively. Taylor has a 27-26 spread; his problem is that he does better with Republicans (29-25) than his own party (24-24).
“If Democrats were going to pick up this Senate seat 2008 was probably their chance,” said Dean Debnam, President of Public Policy Polling. “Wicker appears to have himself firmly entrenched now.”
PPP surveyed 817 Mississippi voters from March 24th to 27th. The survey’s margin of error is +/-3.4%. Other factors, such as refusal to be interviewed and weighting, may introduce additional error that is more difficult to quantify.
Topline results are below. Full results, including crosstabs, can be found here.
Q1 Do you approve or disapprove of Senator
Roger Wicker’s job performance?
Approve …………………………………………………. 51%
Disapprove……………………………………………… 23%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 26%
Q2 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Travis Childers?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 22%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 26%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 52%
Q3 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Jim Hood?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 43%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 26%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 31%
Q4 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Mike Moore?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 39%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 23%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 39%
Q5 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Ronnie Musgrove?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 37%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 40%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 22%
Q6 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Gene Taylor?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 27%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 26%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 47%
Q7 If the candidates for US Senate next year were
Republican Roger Wicker and Democrat Travis
Childers, who would you vote for?
Roger Wicker ………………………………………….. 51%
Travis Childers ………………………………………… 33%
Undecided………………………………………………. 15%
Q8 If the candidates for US Senate next year were
Republican Roger Wicker and Democrat Jim
Hood, who would you vote for?
Roger Wicker ………………………………………….. 50%
Jim Hood………………………………………………… 36%
Undecided………………………………………………. 14%
Q9 If the candidates for US Senate next year were
Republican Roger Wicker and Democrat Mike
Moore, who would you vote for?
Roger Wicker ………………………………………….. 48%
Mike Moore…………………………………………….. 38%
Undecided………………………………………………. 14%
Q10 If the candidates for US Senate next year were
Republican Roger Wicker and Democrat
Ronnie Musgrove, who would you vote for?
Roger Wicker ………………………………………….. 52%
Ronnie Musgrove…………………………………….. 35%
Undecided………………………………………………. 13%
Q11 If the candidates for US Senate next year were
Republican Roger Wicker and Democrat Gene
Taylor, who would you vote for?
Roger Wicker ………………………………………….. 48%
Gene Taylor ……………………………………………. 36%
Undecided………………………………………………. 17%
Q12 Who did you vote for President in 2008?
John McCain…………………………………………… 54%
Barack Obama………………………………………… 40%
Someone Else/Don’t Remember………………… 7%
Q13 Would you describe yourself as very liberal,
somewhat liberal, moderate, somewhat
conservative, or very conservative?
Very liberal ……………………………………………… 11%
Somewhat liberal …………………………………….. 11%
Moderate………………………………………………… 28%
Somewhat conservative……………………………. 24%
Very conservative ……………………………………. 26%
Q14 If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2.
Woman ………………………………………………….. 56%
Man……………………………………………………….. 44%
Q15 If you are a Democrat, press 1. If a
Republican, press 2. If you are an independent
or identify with another party, press 3.
Democrat ……………………………………………….. 40%
Republican……………………………………………… 40%
Independent/Other…………………………………… 20%
Q16 If you are white, press 1. If African-American,
press 2. If other, press 3.
White …………………………………………………….. 63%
African-American …………………………………….. 33%
Other……………………………………………………… 4%
Q17 If you are 18 to 29 years old, press 1. If 30 to
45, press 2. If 46 to 65, press 3. If you are
older than 65, press 4.
18 to 29………………………………………………….. 12%
30 to 45………………………………………………….. 26%
46 to 65………………………………………………….. 43%
Older than 65………………………………………….. 19%
