Raleigh, N.C. – The frenzied political atmosphere in Wisconsin for most of the year and the failure of the Democrats to take control of the State Senate in last Tuesday’s recall elections appear to have dampened voters’ desire to recall Governor Scott Walker. When PPP last polled the question in May, Wisconsinites narrowly favored booting Walker from office before his current term is up, with 50% for it and 47% against it. Now that margin has reversed (47-50). Republicans, already almost unanimously against a recall, are now even more so (8% in favor and 89% opposed three months ago, and 6-94 now). On top of that, those in the middle of the fray, independents, have moved from 50-47 for a recall, just like the overall electorate, to 46-50 against.
On top of that, voters are not particularly upset with last week’s recall election results. 43% are happy with the outcomes, and 39% are unhappy. Since they took two seats but were unable to win a third for the majority, 17% of Democrats are happy, but 64% unhappy, and 19% not sure what to feel. Republicans are more unilaterally elated (73-13), and indepenedents split at 41-38.
Despite their narrow opposition now to the prospect of a Walker recall, if activists succeed in petitioning for one, the governor would likely fall, though by narrower margins than when PPP last tested potential matchups in May. Against his best-known and best-liked potential Democratic opponent, Russ Feingold, Walker would lose, 52-45, up from 52-42 previously. He would also trail the Democrat he beat by almost six points last fall, Tom Barrett, 48-47, an improvement on his 50-43 deficit in May. Matched with two lesser-known figures, former Rep. David Obey and current Rep. Ron Kind, Walker would prevail by three points based mostly on name recognition.
“A Scott Walker recall is still in the realm of possibility,” said Dean Debnam, President of Public Policy Polling. “But Democrats really might need Russ Feingold to run if they want to knock off Walker.”
PPP surveyed 830 Wisconsin voters from August 12th to 14th. The margin of error for the survey is +/- 3.4%. This poll was not paid for or authorized by any campaign or political organization. PPP surveys are conducted through automated telephone interviews. PPP is a Democratic polling company, but polling expert Nate Silver of the New York Times found that its surveys in 2010 actually exhibited a slight bias toward Republican candidates.
Topline results are below. Full results, including crosstabs, can be found here.
Q1 Do you approve or disapprove of Governor
Scott Walker’s job performance?
Approve…………….. 45%
Disapprove………… 53%
Not sure ……………. 2%
Q2 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Russ Feingold?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 49%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 43%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 8%
Q3 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Tom Barrett?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 39%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 37%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 24%
Q4 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of David Obey?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 24%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 33%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 43%
Q5 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Ron Kind?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 18%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 26%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 56%
Q6 Would you support or oppose recalling Scott
Walker from office before his term is up?
Support ………………………………………………….. 47%
Oppose ………………………………………………….. 50%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 2%
Q7 If there was a recall election between
Republican Scott Walker and Democrat Russ
Feingold, who would you vote for?
Scott Walker …………………………………………… 45%
Russ Feingold…………………………………………. 52%
Undecided………………………………………………. 2%
Q8 If there was a recall election between
Republican Scott Walker and Democrat Tom
Barrett, who would you vote for?
Scott Walker …………………………………………… 47%
Tom Barrett …………………………………………….. 48%
Undecided………………………………………………. 6%
Q9 If there was a recall election between
Republican Scott Walker and Democrat David
Obey, who would you vote for?
Scott Walker …………………………………………… 47%
David Obey …………………………………………….. 44%
Undecided………………………………………………. 10%
Q10 If there was a recall election between
Republican Scott Walker and Democrat Ron
Kind, who would you vote for?
Scott Walker …………………………………………… 46%
Ron Kind………………………………………………… 43%
Undecided………………………………………………. 11%
Q11 Were you happy or unhappy with the results of
Tuesday’s State Senate recall elections?
Happy ……………………………………………………. 43%
Unhappy ………………………………………………… 39%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 18%
Q12 Who did you vote for President in 2008?
John McCain…………………………………………… 41%
Barack Obama………………………………………… 51%
Someone else/Don’t remember …………………. 8%
Q13 Would you describe yourself as very liberal,
somewhat liberal, moderate, somewhat
conservative, or very conservative?
Very liberal ……………………………………………… 11%
Somewhat liberal …………………………………….. 22%
Moderate………………………………………………… 29%
Somewhat conservative……………………………. 21%
Very conservative ……………………………………. 17%
Q14 If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2.
Woman ………………………………………………….. 55%
Man……………………………………………………….. 45%
Q15 If you are a Democrat, press 1. If a Republican,
press 2. If you are an independent or identify
with another party, press 3.
Democrat ……………………………………………….. 37%
Republican……………………………………………… 34%
Independent/Other…………………………………… 29%
Q16 If you are white, press 1. If other, press 2.
White …………………………………………………….. 89%
Other……………………………………………………… 11%
Q17 If you are 18 to 29 years old, press 1. If 30 to
45, press 2. If 46 to 65, press 3. If you are
older than 65, press 4.
18 to 29………………………………………………….. 12%
30 to 45………………………………………………….. 26%
46 to 65………………………………………………….. 42%
Older than 65………………………………………….. 20%
