Raleigh, N.C. – Rhode Island has one of the country’s most overwhelming Democratic-to-Republican voter ratios, at 41-14 in PPP’s latest poll of the state. Self-identified independents make up an unusually large 45% plurality in a state with a Republican-turned-independent governor. It is therefore no surprise that not only is freshman Democratic Senator Sheldon Whitehouse a solid bet for re-election, but that a majority of the state supports gay marriage, which is a matter before the state legislature this session.
50% favor legal marriage rights for gay and lesbian couples, and 41% oppose them. Almost two-thirds of Democrats (65%) are for equal rights, but the 73% opposition from the small Republican contingent and only a narrow 47-45 margin of support from unaffiliated voters keep overall positive sentiment at a bare majority.
In the Senate race, Whitehouse’s closest lead is over Warwick Mayor Scott Avedisian, who is pretty popular, with a 36-17 favorability margin. The incumbent leads him, 47-37. He also tops 2010 gubernatorial loser John Robitaille, 49-38. Robitaille is also pretty well-liked, at 40-25. But against ex-governor Don Carcieri, Whitehouse prevails, 54-37. Carcieri is the least-liked candidate, at 41-49. Whitehouse also beats State Rep. John Loughlin, 51-34. Loughlin is only narrowly liked, 26-22. Whitehouse himself has a decent 49-38 approval rating, but independents fall 40-50 in disapproval. In most of these horseraces, he narrowly loses their vote and sees more of his party go to the GOP candidate than he persuades Republicans to his side.
It is independent former Republican Buddy Cianci who makes things interesting. If he runs on his former party’s ticket head-to-head with Whitehouse, he loses, 51-35. But if he launches a third-party bid, he makes the race between Whitehouse and Carcieri a little closer, 43-31 (with Cianci taking 22%), by pulling more Democrats than Republicans and earning a quarter of independents. But if Cianci is the third wheel with Whitehouse and Robitaille, he takes slightly more of the GOP than the other party and pulls more of Robitaille’s independents than Whitehouse’s. In that matchup, Cianci would get 24%, and Whitehouse would expand his lead to 44-28.
“Sheldon Whitehouse looks pretty safe, regardless of his opponent,” said Dean Debnam, President of Public Policy Polling. “And if the state legislature listens to public opinion, it will soon join the rest of New England in granting equality to its gay citizens.”
PPP surveyed 544 Rhode Island voters from February 16th to 22nd. The survey’s margin of error is +/-4.2%. Other factors, such as refusal to be interviewed and weighting, may introduce additional error that is more difficult to quantify.
Topline results are below. Full results, including crosstabs, can be found here.
Q1 Do you approve or disapprove of Democratic
Senator Sheldon Whitehouse’s job
performance?
Approve ……………… 49%
Disapprove………….. 38%
Not sure ……………… 13%
Q2 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Scott Avedisian?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 36%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 17%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 47%
Q3 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Don Carcieri?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 41%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 49%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 10%
Q4 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Buddy Cianci?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 44%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 45%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 11%
Q5 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of John Loughlin?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 26%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 22%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 53%
Q6 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of John Robitaille?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 40%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 25%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 35%
Q7 If the candidates for Senate next year were
Democrat Sheldon Whitehouse and
Republican Scott Avedisian, who would you
vote for?
Sheldon Whitehouse………………………………… 47%
Scott Avedisian ……………………………………….. 37%
Undecided………………………………………………. 16%
Q8 If the candidates for Senate next year were
Democrat Sheldon Whitehouse and
Republican Don Carcieri, who would you vote
for?
Sheldon Whitehouse………………………………… 54%
Don Carcieri……………………………………………. 37%
Undecided………………………………………………. 8%
Q9 If the candidates for Senate next year were
Democrat Sheldon Whitehouse, Republican
Don Carcieri, and independent Buddy Cianci
who would you vote for?
Sheldon Whitehouse………………………………… 43%
Don Carcieri……………………………………………. 31%
Buddy Cianci…………………………………………… 22%
Undecided………………………………………………. 4%
Q10 If the candidates for Senate next year were
Democrat Sheldon Whitehouse and Buddy
Cianci running as a Republican, who would
you vote for?
Sheldon Whitehouse………………………………… 51%
Buddy Cianci…………………………………………… 35%
Undecided………………………………………………. 14%
Q11 If the candidates for Senate next year were
Democrat Sheldon Whitehouse and
Republican John Loughlin, who would you vote
for?
Sheldon Whitehouse………………………………… 51%
John Loughlin …………………………………………. 34%
Undecided………………………………………………. 15%
Q12 If the candidates for Senate next year were
Democrat Sheldon Whitehouse and
Republican John Robitaille, who would you
vote for?
Sheldon Whitehouse………………………………… 49%
John Robitaille ………………………………………… 38%
Undecided………………………………………………. 13%
Q13 If the candidates for Senate next year were
Democrat Sheldon Whitehouse, Republican
John Robitaille, and independent Buddy Cianci
who would you vote for?
Sheldon Whitehouse………………………………… 44%
John Robitaille ………………………………………… 28%
Buddy Cianci…………………………………………… 24%
Undecided………………………………………………. 4%
Q14 Do you favor or oppose allowing gay and
lesbian couples to marry legally?
Favor …………………………………………………….. 50%
Oppose ………………………………………………….. 41%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 9%
Q15 Who did you vote for President in 2008?
John McCain…………………………………………… 31%
Barack Obama………………………………………… 58%
Someone else/Don’t remember …………………. 12%
Q16 If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2.
Woman ………………………………………………….. 55%
Man……………………………………………………….. 45%
Q17 If you are a Democrat, press 1. If a Republican,
press 2. If you are an independent or identify
with another party, press 3.
Democrat ……………………………………………….. 41%
Republican……………………………………………… 14%
Independent/Other…………………………………… 45%
Q18 If you are white, press 1. If other, press 2.
White …………………………………………………….. 86%
Other……………………………………………………… 14%
Q19 If you are 18 to 29 years old, press 1. If 30 to
45, press 2. If 46 to 65, press 3. If you are
older than 65, press 4.
18 to 29………………………………………………….. 12%
30 to 45………………………………………………….. 30%
46 to 65………………………………………………….. 40%
Older than 65………………………………………….. 18%
