Raleigh, N.C. – The race for Governor of West Virginia is looking more and more like a toss up, with Democrat Earl Ray Tomblin now leading Republican Bill Maloney only 47-46. Tomblin’s lead was 46-40 on a poll conducted at the beginning of September and he had led by as large a margin as 33 points earlier in the year.
A lot of money has been spent on attacking Tomblin in the closing weeks of the campaign and that appears to be taking its toll on the Governor’s image. His net approval has dropped 13 points in the last four weeks from +25 (50/25) to just +12 (44/32). Attempts to saddle Tomblin with the burden of Barack Obama might be having an impact as well- the President’s approval in the state is just 28%, with 63% of voters disapproving of him.
When we polled West Virginia a month ago Maloney led by 65 points with Republicans and 5 points with independents. He currently leads by 65 points with Republicans and 4 points with independents. So there’s basically been no change with those voting groups. The shift that’s occurred has been with Democrats. Maloney’s share of their vote has increased from 17% to 24%, while Tomblin has remained in place at 69%. Maloney has particularly made in roads with conservative Democrats- they now support Tomblin by only a 49-43 margin.
Maloney has proven to be a pretty appealing candidate. 44% of voters have a favorable opinion of him to 33% with a negative one. This race is pretty unusual for the current political climate in that the electorate has a positive opinion of both candidates. But the momentum has been exclusively on Maloney’s side over the course of the last 5 months.
“Bill Maloney’s biggest enemy at this point is time,” said Dean Debnam, President of Public Policy Polling. “With the way this race has been headed you have to think Maloney would win if he had another month. But since he only has another day Tomblin may be able to narrowly hold on.”
PPP surveyed 932 likely voters from September 30th to October 2nd.. The margin of error for the survey is +/-3.2%. This poll was not paid for or authorized by any campaign or political organization. PPP surveys are conducted through automated telephone interviews. PPP is a Democratic polling company, but polling expert Nate Silver of the New York Times found that its surveys in 2010 actually exhibited a slight bias toward Republican candidates.
Topline results are below. Full results, including crosstabs, can be found here.
Q1 The candidates for Governor are Republican
Bill Maloney and Democrat Earl Ray Tomblin.
If the election was today, who would you vote
for?
Bill Maloney……….. 46%
Earl Ray Tomblin… 47%
Undecided…………. 7%
Q2 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Bill Maloney?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 44%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 33%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 23%
Q3 Do you approve or disapprove of Governor Earl
Ray Tomblin’s job performance?
Approve…………….. 44%
Disapprove………… 32%
Not sure ……………. 23%
Q4 Do you approve or disapprove of President
Barack Obama’s job performance?
Approve …………………………………………………. 28%
Disapprove……………………………………………… 63%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 9%
Q5 Do you approve or disapprove of Senator Joe
Manchin’s job performance?
Approve …………….. .61%
Disapprove…………. .23%
Not sure …………….. .15%
Q6 If the candidates for Senate next year were
Democrat Joe Manchin and Republican Bill
Maloney, who would you vote for?
Joe Manchin………. 60%
Bill Maloney……….. 29%
Undecided…………. 11%
Q7 Who did you vote for President in 2008?
John McCain…………………………………………… 51%
Barack Obama………………………………………… 36%
Someone else/Don’t remember …………………. 13%
Q8 Would you describe yourself as very liberal,
somewhat liberal, moderate, somewhat
conservative, or very conservative?
Very liberal ……………………………………………… 11%
Somewhat liberal …………………………………….. 14%
Moderate………………………………………………… 25%
Somewhat conservative……………………………. 26%
Very conservative ……………………………………. 23%
Q9 If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2.
Woman ………………………………………………….. 52%
Man……………………………………………………….. 48%
Q10 If you are a Democrat, press 1. If a Republican,
press 2. If you are an independent or identify
with another party, press 3.
Democrat ……………………………………………….. 55%
Republican……………………………………………… 35%
Independent/Other…………………………………… 9%
Q11 If you are white, press 1. If other, press 2.
White …………………………………………………….. 94%
Other……………………………………………………… 6%
Q12 If you are 18 to 29 years old, press 1. If 30 to
45, press 2. If 46 to 65, press 3. If you are
older than 65, press 4.
18 to 29………………………………………………….. 16%
30 to 45………………………………………………….. 18%
46 to 65………………………………………………….. 38%
Older than 65………………………………………….. 28%
