Raleigh, N.C. – Every time PPP has polled the Washington Senate race this year it’s found the race to be within 2 or 3 points and our final poll there is no exception. But there is one twist- for the first time we find Dino Rossi leading Patty Murray, by a 50-48 margin.
Neither candidate has much in the way of support across party lines- Rossi’s winning 93% of Republicans and Murray’s winning 91% of Democrats. That means independents, as they are in so many races across the country, are making the difference for the GOP here. Rossi leads Murray with them by a 54-42 margin.
The most worrisome number for Murray within the poll, beyond her small overall disadvantage, is that among voters who say they’ve already returned their ballots Rossi’s advantage is wider at 52-47. Murray’s ability to keep the race close is predicated on the 24% of respondents who have not yet done so returning their ballots. That group supports her by a 51-45 margin.
Washington has one of the more severe enthusiasm gaps in the country. Barack Obama won the state by 17 points in 2008 but those planning to vote this year supported him by only a 7 point margin. If Democrats in the state vote at a higher rate than response to our poll suggested over the weekend that would likely be enough to put Murray over the top.
Murray’s approval rating has fallen to 44%, with 51% of voters disapproving of her. Rossi’s not real popular either with 45% of voters seeing him favorably to 46% with an unfavorable opinion. Like many races across the country this year the Washington Senate contest is shaping up for voters as a choice between two candidates they’re not particularly enamored with and for the most part the GOP is winning out in situations where that’s the case.
“A lot of the time in a wave election all of the close elections end up tilting away from the party in power at the end,” said Dean Debnam, President of Public Policy Polling. “If that proves to be the case this year Patty Murray could be one of the victims of it. This is going to be a very close race that we may not know the outcome of for several days.”
PPP surveyed 2,055 likely Washington voters from October 29th to 31st. The margin of error for the survey is +/- 2.2%. Other factors, such as refusal to be interviewed and weighting, may introduce additional error that is more difficult to quantify.
Topline results are below. Full results, including crosstabs, can be found here.
Q1 The candidates for US Senate are Democrat
Patty Murray and Republican Dino Rossi. If
the election was today, who would you vote
for?
Patty Murray …………………………………………… 48%
Dino Rossi ……………………………………………… 50%
Undecided………………………………………………. 2%
Q2 Do you approve or disapprove of Senator Patty
Murray’s job performance?
Approve …………………………………………………. 44%
Disapprove……………………………………………… 51%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 5%
Q3 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Dino Rossi?
Favorable ………….. 45%
Unfavorable……….. 46%
Not sure ……………. 10%
Q4 Do you approve or disapprove of President
Barack Obama’s job performance?
Approve …………………………………………………. 42%
Disapprove……………………………………………… 53%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 6%
Q5 Do you approve or disapprove of Senator
Maria Cantwell’s job performance?
Approve …………………………………………………. 41%
Disapprove……………………………………………… 43%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 16%
Q6 Do you approve or disapprove of Governor
Christine Gregoire’s job performance?
Approve …………………………………………………. 36%
Disapprove……………………………………………… 55%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 9%
Q7 Who did you vote for President in 2008?
John McCain…………………………………………… 44%
Barack Obama………………………………………… 51%
Someone else/Don’t remember …………………. 5%
Q8 Do you identify yourself as a liberal, moderate,
or conservative?
Liberal ……………………………………………………. 23%
Moderate………………………………………………… 41%
Conservative…………………………………………… 36%
Q9 If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2.
Woman ………………………………………………….. 53%
Man……………………………………………………….. 47%
Q10 If you are a Democrat, press 1. If a
Republican, press 2. If you are an independent
or identify with another party, press 3.
Democrat ……………………………………………….. 35%
Republican……………………………………………… 32%
Independent/Other…………………………………… 33%
Q11 If you are white, press 1. If other, press 2.
White …………………………………………………….. 88%
Other……………………………………………………… 12%
Q12 If you are 18 to 29 years old, press 1. If 30 to
45, press 2. If 46 to 65, press 3. If you are
older than 65, press 4.
18 to 29………………………………………………….. 10%
30 to 45………………………………………………….. 24%
46 to 65………………………………………………….. 39%
Older than 65………………………………………….. 27%
Q13 Have you already cast your ballot for this
year’s election?
Yes………………………………………………………… 76%
No …………………………………………………………. 24%
