Raleigh, N.C. –
PPP’s newest Massachusetts poll finds two races going in opposite directions-
Mitt Romney’s cut Barack Obama’s lead to its smallest level in the state all
year. But at the same time Elizabeth Warren’s built her advantage out to the
widest margin we’ve ever found.
Warren leads Scott Brown 50-44. The big change over the last month is that
Brown’s image is finally starting to take a hit. His approval rating is now a
+7 spread at 49/42, down a net 14 points from mid-September when he was at
55/34.
The biggest thing that continues to make it very hard for Brown to win this
race is that 52% of voters in the state want Democrats to have control of the
US Senate to 35% who want the Republicans in control. Warren is now winning the
Democratic vote 82/13, erasing most of the crossover support that Brown had
earlier in the year.
In the Presidential race Barack Obama’s seeing the same kind of decline in
Massachusetts that he is nationally. He leads Mitt Romney by 14 points, 55-41.
That’s down from an 18 point lead last month, and it’s the smallest advantage
we’ve found for him in the state all year. The big shift over the last month in
Massachusetts has been among independent voters. They now support Romney 53-40,
after giving Obama a 47-44 edge last month.
Obama’s approval numbers are pretty consistent with where they were last
month, at 55/43 compared to 56/41 last time. But as we’ve seen other places,
Romney’s favorability rating is on the rise. He’s now seen positively by 42% of
voters to 54% who have a negative opinion. That’s not good but it’s up a net 7
points from a month ago when he was at 39/58.
“Barack Obama’s lead is declining in Massachusetts,” said Dean Debnam,
President of Public Policy Polling. “But that’s not rubbing off on Elizabeth
Warren. Her lead has increased by 4 points in the last month even as Obama’s
has declined by 4.”
PPP surveyed 1,051
likely Massachusetts voters from October 9th to 11th. The margin of
error for the survey is +/-3.0%. This poll was not
paid for or authorized by any campaign or political organization. PPP surveys
are conducted through automated telephone interviews.
Topline results are below. Full results, including crosstabs, can be found here.
Q1 Do you approve or disapprove of President
Barack Obama’s job performance?
Approve …………………………………………………. 55%
Disapprove……………………………………………… 43%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 2%
Q2 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Mitt Romney?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 42%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 54%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 4%
Q3 The candidates for President are Democrat
Barack Obama and Republican Mitt Romney. If
the election was today, who would you vote
for?
Barack Obama………………………………………… 55%
Mitt Romney……………………………………………. 41%
Undecided………………………………………………. 4%
Q4 Do you approve or disapprove of Senator Scott
Brown’s job performance?
Approve …………………………………………………. 49%
Disapprove……………………………………………… 42%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 9%
Q5 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Ellizabeth Warren?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 49%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 45%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 6%
Q6 The candidates for Senate this fall are
Democrat Elizabeth Warren and Republican
Scott Brown. If the election was today, who
would you vote for?
Elizabeth Warren …………………………………….. 50%
Scott Brown ……………………………………………. 44%
Undecided………………………………………………. 6%
Q7 Question 2 would allow a physician licensed in
Massachusetts to prescribe medication, at the
request of a terminally ill patient meeting
certain conditions, to end that person’s life. If
the election was today, would you vote yes or
no on Question 2?
Yes………………………………………………………… 56%
No …………………………………………………………. 30%
Undecided………………………………………………. 14%
Q8 Question 3 would eliminate state criminal and
civil penalties for the medical use of marijuana
by qualifying patients. If the election was today,
would you vote yes or no on Question 3?
Yes………………………………………………………… 57%
No …………………………………………………………. 31%
Undecided………………………………………………. 12%
Q9 Do you approve or disapprove of Governor
Deval Patrick’s job performance?
Approve …………………………………………………. 48%
Disapprove……………………………………………… 38%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 13%
Q10 Do you approve or disapprove of Senator John
Kerry’s job performance?
Approve …………………………………………………. 49%
Disapprove……………………………………………… 36%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 15%
Q11 Generally speaking, if there was an election for
Senate today, would you vote for Democrat
John Kerry or his Republican opponent?
John Kerry ……………………………………………… 53%
Republican opponent ……………………………….. 32%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 15%
Q12 Regardless of how you feel about him now, do
you approve or disapprove of the work Mitt
Romney did while he was Governor of
Massachusetts?
Approve …………………………………………………. 45%
Disapprove……………………………………………… 42%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 13%
Q13 Do you consider Mitt Romney to be a Bay
Stater, or not?
He is ……………………………………………………… 25%
He is not…………………………………………………. 58%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 18%
Q14 Do you think that Scott Brown is too liberal, too
conservative, or about right?
Too liberal ………………………………………………. 8%
Too conservative……………………………………… 33%
About right ……………………………………………… 51%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 8%
Q15 Do you think that Elizabeth Warren is too
liberal, too conservative, or about right?
Too liberal ………………………………………………. 42%
Too conservative……………………………………… 3%
About right ……………………………………………… 49%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 7%
Q16 Do you think the Republican Party in general is
too liberal, too conservative, or about right?
Too liberal ………………………………………………. 8%
Too conservative……………………………………… 55%
About right ……………………………………………… 29%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 8%
Q17 Do you think the Democratic Party in general is
too liberal, too conservative, or about right?
Too liberal ………………………………………………. 46%
Too conservative……………………………………… 8%
About right ……………………………………………… 42%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 4%
Q18 Do you think Scott Brown has been more an
independent voice for Massachusetts or a
partisan voice for the national Republican
Party?
An independent voice for Massachusetts ……. 44%
A partisan voice for the national Republican
Party ………………………………………………………45%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 11%
Q19 Do you have a higher opinion of Scott Brown or
John Kerry?
Scott Brown ……………………………………………. 45%
John Kerry ……………………………………………… 45%
Like both equally……………………………………… 5%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 5%
Q20 Would you rather that Democrats or
Republicans had control of the US Senate?
Democrats ……………………………………………… 52%
Republicans ……………………………………………. 35%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 12%
Q21 Who do you think was a better Governor of
Massachusetts: Mitt Romney or Deval Patrick?
Mitt Romney……………………………………………. 41%
Deval Patrick…………………………………………… 50%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 8%
Q22 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of college professors?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 57%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 19%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 24%
Q23 Would you describe yourself as very liberal,
somewhat liberal, moderate, somewhat
conservative, or very conservative?
Very liberal ……………………………………………… 13%
Somewhat liberal …………………………………….. 24%
Moderate………………………………………………… 35%
Somewhat conservative……………………………. 20%
Very conservative ……………………………………. 7%
Q24 If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2.
Woman ………………………………………………….. 55%
Man……………………………………………………….. 45%
Q25 If you are a Democrat, press 1. If a Republican,
press 2. If you are an independent or identify
with another party, press 3.
Democrat ……………………………………………….. 41%
Republican……………………………………………… 16%
Independent/Other…………………………………… 43%
Q26 If you are white, press 1. If other, press 2.
White …………………………………………………….. 84%
Other……………………………………………………… 16%
Q27 If you are 18 to 29 years old, press 1. If 30 to
45, press 2. If 46 to 65, press 3. If you are
older than 65, press 4.
18 to 29………………………………………………….. 12%
30 to 45………………………………………………….. 25%
46 to 65………………………………………………….. 42%
Older than 65………………………………………….. 21%
