Raleigh, N.C. – Things have been
going Elizabeth Warren’s way in the Massachusetts Senate race over the last
month. She’s gained 7 points and now leads Scott Brown 48-46 after trailing him
by a 49-44 margin on our last poll.
Warren’s gaining because Democratic voters are coming back into the fold.
Last month she led only 73-20 with Democrats. Now she’s up 81-13. That explains
basically the entire difference between the two polls. There are plenty of
Democrats who like Scott Brown- 29% approve of him- but fewer are now willing
to vote for him. That’s probably because of another finding on our poll- 53% of
voters want Democrats to have control of the Senate compared to only 36% who
want Republicans in charge. More and more Democrats who may like Brown are
shifting to Warren because they don’t like the prospect of a GOP controlled
Senate.
Brown’s approval numbers have actually improved since our poll last month.
55% of voters approve of him to 34% who disapprove. He continues to dominate
the race with independents, leading 56-35, and he’s taking 94% of the
Republican vote. 56% of voters think he’s ideologically ‘about right’ to only
29% who think he’s too conservative. And 49% consider him to be more an
‘independent voice for Massachusetts’ than the 40% who think he’s more a
‘partisan voice for the national Republican Party.’ Brown continues to be one
of the more popular Senators in the country and he’s doing what he needs to do
in this campaign, but his party label may end up being more than he can
overcome.
Warren’s image has seen some improvement in the last month. She has a +8 net
favorability at 51/43, up 5 points from last month when she was at 46/43. That
reverses the trend of her numbers falling in every poll we’d done this year up
until now. Again the difference is Democrats becoming more enthusiastic about
her. She’s gone from a 75/16 spread with them last month now up to an 81/12
one.
“The Massachusetts Senate race remains a toss up,” said Dean Debnam,
President of Public Policy Polling. “But the momentum is clearly on Elizabeth
Warren’s side now.”
PPP surveyed 876 likely Massachusetts voters from
September 13th to 16th. The margin of error for the overall survey
is +/-3.3%. This poll was not paid for
or authorized by any campaign or political organization. PPP surveys are
conducted through automated telephone interviews.
Topline results are below. Full results, including crosstabs, can be found here.
Q1 Do you approve or disapprove of Senator Scott
Brown’s job performance?
Approve …………………………………………………. 55%
Disapprove……………………………………………… 34%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 12%
Q2 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Ellizabeth Warren?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 51%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 43%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 6%
Q3 The candidates for Senate this fall are
Democrat Elizabeth Warren and Republican
Scott Brown. If the election was today, who
would you vote for?
Elizabeth Warren …………………………………….. 48%
Scott Brown ……………………………………………. 46%
Undecided………………………………………………. 6%
Q4 Do you think that Scott Brown is too liberal, too
conservative, or about right?
Too liberal ………………………………………………. 7%
Too conservative……………………………………… 29%
About right ……………………………………………… 56%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 8%
Q5 Do you think that Elizabeth Warren is too
liberal, too conservative, or about right?
Too liberal ………………………………………………. 44%
Too conservative……………………………………… 2%
About right ……………………………………………… 49%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 5%
Q6 Do you think the Republican Party in general is
too liberal, too conservative, or about right?
Too liberal ………………………………………………. 11%
Too conservative……………………………………… 56%
About right ……………………………………………… 26%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 8%
Q7 Do you think the Democratic Party in general is
too liberal, too conservative, or about right?
Too liberal ………………………………………………. 45%
Too conservative……………………………………… 7%
About right ……………………………………………… 43%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 4%
Q8 Do you think Scott Brown has been more an
independent voice for Massachusetts or a
partisan voice for the national Republican
Party?
An independent voice for Massachusetts ……. 49%
A partisan voice for the national Republican
Party ………………………………………………………40%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 12%
Q9 Do you have a higher opinion of Scott Brown or
John Kerry?
Scott Brown ……………………………………………. 46%
John Kerry ……………………………………………… 44%
Like both equally……………………………………… 6%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 4%
Q10 Would you rather that Democrats or
Republicans had control of the US Senate?
Democrats ……………………………………………… 53%
Republicans ……………………………………………. 37%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 10%
Q11 Would you describe yourself as very liberal,
somewhat liberal, moderate, somewhat
conservative, or very conservative?
Very liberal ……………………………………………… 13%
Somewhat liberal …………………………………….. 21%
Moderate………………………………………………… 35%
Somewhat conservative……………………………. 23%
Very conservative ……………………………………. 8%
Q12 If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2.
Woman ………………………………………………….. 50%
Man……………………………………………………….. 50%
Q13 If you are a Democrat, press 1. If a Republican,
press 2. If you are an independent or identify
with another party, press 3.
Democrat ……………………………………………….. 38%
Republican……………………………………………… 17%
Independent/Other…………………………………… 45%
Q14 If you are white, press 1. If other, press 2.
White …………………………………………………….. 84%
Other……………………………………………………… 16%
Q15 If you are 18 to 29 years old, press 1. If 30 to
45, press 2. If 46 to 65, press 3. If you are
older than 65, press 4.
18 to 29………………………………………………….. 9%
30 to 45………………………………………………….. 21%
46 to 65………………………………………………….. 48%
Older than 65………………………………………….. 22%