Raleigh, N.C. – PPP’s newest Virginia Senate poll finds a very steady race, with almost no change since the last survey we did there in the spring. Mark Warner leads Ed Gillespie 48/35, compared to a 49/35 advantage when we looked at the race in April.
Warner has a positive approval rating at 49/40. Meanwhile Gillespie is not proving to be a particularly appealing candidate- only 29% of voters have a favorable opinion of him to 37% who view him negatively. Warner has a double digit advantage because he is winning over 17% of the Republican vote, while just 3% of Democrats are going for Gillespie. Warner is even slightly ahead with white voters at 44/43 and with seniors by a wider margin at 48/41, both groups that Democrats don’t typically perform that well with.
“It’s unusual to poll a race and then wait six months and poll it again and find that nothing has changed,” said Dean Debnam, President of Public Policy Polling. “But Mark Warner’s double digit lead in this race has proven to be very steady.”
The General Assembly and its Republican leadership are pretty unpopular with Virginia voters. The General Assembly overall has just a 28% approval rating, with 46% of voters disapproving of it. Democrats (22/52), independents (26/50), and narrowly even Republicans (36/37) all give the General Assembly poor marks. The Republicans leadership in particular is seen favorably by just 33% of Virginians to 47% with an unfavorable opinion. 72% of Virginians oppose budget cuts to K-12 education and teacher salaries, 64% oppose cuts to workforce development funding, 63% support continued tax relief on car sales, and 62% oppose cuts to higher education.
A couple of hotly debated issues over the last year play to Democrats’ advantage in Virginia. 62% of voters support increasing the minimum wage to $10 an hour, compared to only 30% who are opposed. 90% of Democrats, 56% of independents, and even 37% of Republicans support the minimum wage increase. There’s also 55/35 support for Medicaid expansion with 87% of Democrats supporting it, independents behind it by a 50/36 margin, and 25% of Republicans in favor.
PPP surveyed 625 likely voters on September 22nd and 23rd. The margin of error for the sample is +/-3.9 %. 80% of interviews for the poll were conducted over the phone with 20% interviewed over the internet to reach respondents who don’t have landline telephones.
Topline results are below. Full results, including crosstabs, can be found here.
Q1 Do you approve or disapprove of President
Barack Obama’s job performance?
Approve …………………………………………………. 45%
Disapprove……………………………………………… 50%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 6%
Q2 Do you approve or disapprove of Senator Mark
Warner’s job performance?
Approve …………………………………………………. 49%
Disapprove……………………………………………… 40%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 10%
Q3 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Ed Gillespie?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 29%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 37%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 34%
Q4 The candidates for U.S. Senate are Democrat
Mark Warner, Republican Ed Gillespie, and
Libertarian Robert Sarvis. If the election was
today, who would you vote for?
Mark Warner …………………………………………… 48%
Ed Gillespie…………………………………………….. 35%
Robert Sarvis ………………………………………….. 4%
Undecided………………………………………………. 12%
Q5 Combined horse race, with Sarvis supporters
asked if they lean Warner or Gillespie
Mark Warner …………………………………………… 49%
Ed Gillespie…………………………………………….. 37%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 14%
Q6 Do you approve or disapprove of the job the
Virginia General Assembly is doing?
Approve …………………………………………………. 28%
Disapprove……………………………………………… 46%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 26%
Q7 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of the Republican leadership in the Virginia
General Assembly?
Approve …………………………………………………. 33%
Disapprove……………………………………………… 47%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 19%
Q8 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Republican Speaker Bill Howell?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 27%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 37%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 36%
Q9 I’m going to read you a list of areas that might
be cut in Virginia’s budget. For each, please tell
me whether you strongly support, somewhat
support, somewhat oppose, or strongly oppose
cuts in that area. The first is K-12 education
and teacher salaries.
Strongly support………………………………………. 9%
Somewhat support…………………………………… 15%
Somewhat oppose …………………………………… 25%
Strongly oppose………………………………………. 47%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 5%
Q10 The next is workforce development, including
community colleges and work training
programs.
Strongly support………………………………………. 10%
Somewhat support…………………………………… 20%
Somewhat oppose …………………………………… 30%
Strongly oppose………………………………………. 34%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 6%
Q11 The next is higher education.
Strongly support………………………………………. 15%
Somewhat support…………………………………… 16%
Somewhat oppose …………………………………… 27%
Strongly oppose………………………………………. 35%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 7%
Q12 The last one is continued tax relief on car
sales.
Strongly support………………………………………. 42%
Somewhat support…………………………………… 21%
Somewhat oppose …………………………………… 14%
Strongly oppose………………………………………. 13%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 9%
Q13 Would you support or oppose raising the
minimum wage to $10 an hour?
Support ………………………………………………….. 62%
Oppose ………………………………………………….. 30%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 8%
Q14 Do you support or oppose accepting federal
funding to expand the state’s Medicaid
program to provide health insurance to
400,000 Virginians who do not have health
coverage?
Support ………………………………………………….. 55%
Oppose ………………………………………………….. 35%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 10%
Q15 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Bob McDonnell?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 23%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 47%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 30%
Q16 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Maureen McDonnell?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 7%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 57%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 36%
Q17 Do you agree or disagree with the guilty
verdicts in Bob McDonnell’s recent trial?
Agree …………………………………………………….. 50%
Disagree ………………………………………………… 25%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 25%
Q18 What is your favorite Major League Baseball
team: the Atlanta Braves, Baltimore Orioles,
Boston Red Sox, Chicago Cubs, New York
Mets, New York Yankees, Philadelphia Phillies,
Washington Nationals, or someone else?
Braves …………………………………………………… 16%
Orioles …………………………………………………… 7%
Red Sox…………………………………………………. 10%
Cubs ……………………………………………………… 3%
Mets………………………………………………………. 3%
Yankees …………………………………………………. 10%
Phillies …………………………………………………… 3%
Nationals………………………………………………… 22%
Someone else…………………………………………. 25%
Q19 Is your favorite NFL team the Atlanta Falcons,
Baltimore Ravens, Carolina Panthers, Dallas
Cowboys, Green Bay Packers, Philadelphia
Eagles, Pittsburgh Steelers, Washington
Redskins, or someone else?
Falcons ………………………………………………….. 4%
Ravens…………………………………………………… 2%
Panthers ………………………………………………… 3%
Cowboys………………………………………………… 12%
Packers………………………………………………….. 4%
Eagles……………………………………………………. 3%
Steelers………………………………………………….. 8%
Redskins………………………………………………… 32%
Someone else / No favorite……………………….. 32%
Q20 Do you think the Washington Redskins should
change their name, or not?
Think they should…………………………………….. 21%
Think they should not……………………………….. 71%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 8%
Q21 In the last presidential election, did you vote for
Barack Obama or Mitt Romney?
Barack Obama………………………………………… 50%
Mitt Romney……………………………………………. 45%
Someone else / Don’t remember ……………….. 5%
Q22 Would you describe yourself as very liberal,
somewhat liberal, moderate, somewhat
conservative, or very conservative?
Very liberal ……………………………………………… 11%
Somewhat liberal …………………………………….. 16%
Moderate………………………………………………… 29%
Somewhat conservative……………………………. 26%
Very conservative ……………………………………. 18%
Q23 If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2.
Woman ………………………………………………….. 53%
Man……………………………………………………….. 47%
Q24 If you are a Democrat, press 1. If a Republican,
press 2. If you are an independent or identify
with another party, press 3.
Democrat ……………………………………………….. 36%
Republican……………………………………………… 34%
Independent / Other…………………………………. 31%
Q25 If you are white, press 1. If African-American,
press 2. If other, press 3.
White …………………………………………………….. 74%
African-American …………………………………….. 19%
Other……………………………………………………… 7%
Q26 If you are 18 to 29 years old, press 1. If 30 to
45, press 2. If 46 to 65, press 3. If you are
older than 65, press 4.
18 to 29………………………………………………….. 10%
30 to 45………………………………………………….. 24%
46 to 65………………………………………………….. 44%
Older than 65………………………………………….. 22%
Q27 Mode
Phone ……………………………………………………. 80%
Internet ………………………………………………….. 20%
