Raleigh, N.C. – Wisconsinites are closely divided on whether they would support recalling Gov. Scott Walker. Half support putting Walker before the voters before 2014, and 47% oppose it, up slightly from a 48-48 deadlock when PPP last polled the state near the beginning of the union controversy in February. But while the proposition of a recall sharply divides voters, there is no question that if he were to be recalled, voters would be squarely behind his Democratic challenger, whether it is Russ Feingold (52-42) or Walker’s 2010 opponent Tom Barrett (50-43). That mirrors the 52-45 spread when PPP asked voters three months ago who they would vote for if they could do last fall’s gubernatorial election over again.
The main difference between the Feingold and Barrett matchups is that the former senator is better known than the Milwaukee mayor, so Feingold attracts slightly more support across the board, while Barrett leaves more voters undecided. Regardless, Walker earns 10% of Democrats, 80% or 82% of the GOP, and 40% or 41% of independents. Not bad, except both the Democrats perform better with their own partisans and beat the incumbent with independents by either seven or 11 points. The resurgent Democratic enthusiasm which Walker engendered has not waned over the last few months, but has, if anything, strengthened—a good sign for the party heading into the 2012 cycle after an abysmal turnout last November.
Voters have soured even further on Walker’s job performance. 43% approve, and 54% disapprove, down from 46-52 in the previous poll. Still more Republicans disapprove than Democrats approve, and independents have moved from 45-53 to 40-56.
“The enthusiasm for recalling Scott Walker is still there three months after the height of the protests in Wisconsin,” said Dean Debnam, President of Public Policy Polling. “He’d be done if the vote was today, it’s just a question of whether that desire to put him out can continue to be sustained in the coming months.”
PPP surveyed 1,636 Wisconsin voters from May 19th to 22nd. The margin of error for the survey is +/-2.4%. This poll was not paid for or authorized by any campaign or political organization. PPP surveys are conducted through automated telephone interviews. PPP is a Democratic polling company, but polling expert Nate Silver of the New York Times found that its surveys in 2010 actually exhibited a slight bias toward Republican candidates.
Topline results are below. Full results, including crosstabs, can be found here.
Q1 Do you approve or disapprove of Governor
Scott Walker’s job performance?
Approve …………………………………………………. 43%
Disapprove……………………………………………… 54%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 3%
Q2 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Russ Feingold?
Favorable ………….. 51%
Unfavorable……….. 38%
Not sure ……………. 11%
Q3 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Tom Barrett?
Favorable ………….. 41%
Unfavorable……….. 34%
Not sure ……………. 25%
Q4 Would you support or oppose recalling Scott
Walker from office before his term is up?
Support …………….. 50%
Oppose …………….. 47%
Not sure ……………. 3%
Q5 If there was a recall election between
Republican Scott Walker and Democrat Russ
Feingold, who would you vote for?
Scott Walker …………………………………………… 42%
Russ Feingold…………………………………………. 52%
Undecided………………………………………………. 6%
Q6 If there was a recall election between
Republican Scott Walker and Democrat Tom
Barrett, who would you vote for?
Scott Walker …………………………………………… 43%
Tom Barrett …………………………………………….. 50%
Undecided………………………………………………. 8%
Q7 Would you rather that Democrats or
Republicans had control of the State Senate?
Democrats ……………………………………………… 50%
Republicans ……………………………………………. 42%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 8%
Q8 Who did you vote for President in 2008?
John McCain…………………………………………… 42%
Barack Obama………………………………………… 51%
Someone else/Don’t remember …………………. 7%
Q9 Would you describe yourself as very liberal,
somewhat liberal, moderate, somewhat
conservative, or very conservative?
Very liberal ……………………………………………… 10%
Somewhat liberal …………………………………….. 20%
Moderate………………………………………………… 30%
Somewhat conservative……………………………. 23%
Very conservative ……………………………………. 17%
Q10 If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2.
Woman ………………………………………………….. 54%
Man……………………………………………………….. 46%
Q11 If you are a Democrat, press 1. If a Republican,
press 2. If you are an independent or identify
with another party, press 3.
Democrat ……………………………………………….. 37%
Republican……………………………………………… 32%
Independent/Other…………………………………… 31%
Q12 If you are white, press 1. If something else,
press 2.
White …………………………………………………….. 93%
Other……………………………………………………… 7%
Q13 If you are 18 to 29 years old, press 1. If 30 to
45, press 2. If 46 to 65, press 3. If you are
older than 65, press 4.
18 to 29………………………………………………….. 12%
30 to 45………………………………………………….. 30%
46 to 65………………………………………………….. 38%
Older than 65………………………………………….. 20%
