Raleigh, N.C. – John Kitzhaber and Jeff Merkley will both be on the ballot in two years, and both are in tenuous position with voters right now, and would struggle to win re-election over at least one little-known but well-liked Republican in this Democratic-leaning state.
Even though he leads by margins of up to 15 points, Gov. Kitzhaber cannot do better than 46% of the vote, similar to his 45% raw approval rating. He leads the best-known and most popular of the bunch, Congressman Greg Walden, by only one point (42-41). That rises to ten against state GOP chairman Allen Alley (46-36), 13 versus State House Co-Speaker Bruce Hanna (46-33), and 15 against State Sen. Jason Atkinson (45-30).
But the latter three potential Republican opponents are known quantities to no more than 32% of the electorate, and Walden can only muster 43% name recognition. With voters who have an opinion on both Kitzhaber and one of the Republicans right now, that Republican leads by margins of three to 12 points.
Merkley improves on his 37% approval rating, pulling 40-43% of the overall vote, but is in worse shape than Kitzhaber. He trails Walden by two points (40-42), and leads Alley by six (43-37), Hanna by eight (43-35), and Atkinson by nine (43-34). With voters familiar with both Merkley and one of his possible challengers, that challenger leads by double-digit margins. Those leads would not likely materialize in reality, but neither Kitzhaber nor Merkley is as safe as his raw leads look. Rising name ID for whoever the GOP nominates would close the gap.
The reason Walden is so formidable, aside from his name identification, is that he is actually liked by Democrats (26-15), Republicans (33-19), and independents (23-13) alike.
“Oregon is not competitive at the presidential level, but it has had some very tight contests down the ballot in recent years, and it looks like 2014 could produce two more nailbiters,” said Dean Debnam, President of Public Policy Polling.
PPP surveyed 686 Oregon voters from June 21st to 24th. The margin of error for the survey is +/-3.7%. This poll was not paid for or authorized by any campaign or political organization. PPP surveys are conducted through automated telephone interviews.
Topline results are below. Full results, including crosstabs, can be found here.
Q1 Do you approve or disapprove of Governor
John Kitzhaber’s job performance?
Approve …………………………………………………. 45%
Disapprove……………………………………………… 39%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 16%
Q2 Do you approve or disapprove of Senator Ron
Wyden’s job performance?
Approve …………………………………………………. 54%
Disapprove……………………………………………… 27%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 19%
Q3 Do you approve or disapprove of Senator Jeff
Merkley’s job performance?
Approve …………………………………………………. 37%
Disapprove……………………………………………… 34%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 29%
Q4 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Greg Walden?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 27%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 16%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 57%
Q5 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Allen Alley?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 18%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 15%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 68%
Q6 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Bruce Hanna?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 9%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 11%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 80%
Q7 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Jason Atkinson?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 8%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 9%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 83%
Q8 If the candidates for Governor in 2014 were
Democrat John Kitzhaber and Republican
Greg Walden, who would you vote for?
John Kitzhaber ………………………………………… 42%
Greg Walden…………………………………………… 41%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 17%
Q9 If the candidates for Governor in 2014 were
Democrat John Kitzhaber and Republican Allen
Alley, who would you vote for?
John Kitzhaber ………………………………………… 46%
Allen Alley ………………………………………………. 36%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 18%
Q10 If the candidates for Governor in 2014 were
Democrat John Kitzhaber and Republican
Bruce Hanna, who would you vote for?
John Kitzhaber ………………………………………… 46%
Bruce Hanna…………………………………………… 33%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 21%
Q11 If the candidates for Governor in 2014 were
Democrat John Kitzhaber and Republican
Jason Atkinson, who would you vote for?
John Kitzhaber ………………………………………… 45%
Jason Atkinson………………………………………… 30%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 24%
Q12 If the candidates for Senate in 2014 were
Democrat Jeff Merkley and Republican Greg
Walden, who would you vote for?
Jeff Merkley ……………………………………………. 40%
Greg Walden…………………………………………… 42%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 18%
Q13 If the candidates for Senate in 2014 were
Democrat Jeff Merkley and Republican Allen
Alley, who would you vote for?
Jeff Merkley ……………………………………………. 43%
Allen Alley ………………………………………………. 37%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 20%
Q14 If the candidates for Senate in 2014 were
Democrat Jeff Merkley and Republican Bruce
Hanna, who would you vote for?
Jeff Merkley ……………………………………………. 43%
Bruce Hanna…………………………………………… 35%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 23%
Q15 If the candidates for Senate in 2014 were
Democrat Jeff Merkley and Republican Jason
Atkinson, who would you vote for?
Jeff Merkley ……………………………………………. 43%
Jason Atkinson………………………………………… 34%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 23%
Q16 Who did you vote for President in 2008?
John McCain…………………………………………… 40%
Barack Obama………………………………………… 51%
Someone else/Don’t remember …………………. 9%
Q17 Would you describe yourself as very liberal,
somewhat liberal, moderate, somewhat
conservative, or very conservative?
Very liberal ……………………………………………… 15%
Somewhat liberal …………………………………….. 21%
Moderate………………………………………………… 27%
Somewhat conservative……………………………. 22%
Very conservative ……………………………………. 15%
Q18 If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2.
Woman ………………………………………………….. 52%
Man……………………………………………………….. 48%
Q19 If you are a Democrat, press 1. If a Republican,
press 2. If you are an independent or identify
with another party, press 3.
Democrat ……………………………………………….. 46%
Republican……………………………………………… 30%
Independent/Other…………………………………… 25%
Q20 If you are white, press 1. If other, press 2.
White …………………………………………………….. 91%
Other……………………………………………………… 9%
Q21 If you are 18 to 29 years old, press 1. If 30 to
45, press 2. If 46 to 65, press 3. If you are
older than 65, press 4.
18 to 29………………………………………………….. 12%
30 to 45………………………………………………….. 22%
46 to 65………………………………………………….. 44%
Older than 65………………………………………….. 22%
