Polls

WA-Gov a toss up, Obama and gay marriage well ahead

| Tom Jensen


Header-poll-results
Raleigh, N.C. –

PPP’s final Washington poll finds a very close race for Governor, with Democrat
Jay Inslee leading Republican Rob McKenna 50-48. Although the margins have been
close, Inslee has led all 4 polls we’ve conducted in Washington since Labor
Day.

If Inslee does indeed emerge as the winner on Tuesday it will be because he
was able to unify the Democratic base strongly around him. McKenna actually has
a 53-42 lead with independents. But for a Republican to win in a blue state
like Washington requires a healthy amount of crossover support as well and
McKenna’s not getting that- Inslee leads 92/6 with Democratic voters.

Barack Obama leads Mitt Romney 53-46 in the state. Although Obama’s not at
any real risk of losing it this is the 5th blue state along with Connecticut,
Massachusetts, Michigan, and Oregon  where we’ve found him doing 10 points
worse or more than he did in 2008.

Washington appears likely to approve gay marriage on Tuesday. 52% of voters
say they plan to vote to approve Senate Bill 6239, while 42% are inclined to
reject it. We have found that undecided voters on these marriage questions
generally end up voting anti-equality but even given that it looks like a
favorite for passage. Every age group supports legalizing gay marriage except
for seniors, who oppose it 43/51. Washington voters are also likely to legalize
marijuana on Tuesday. 53% of voters support Initiative 502 to 44% who are opposed.

Maria Cantwell is headed for an easy reelection against Republican opponent
Michael Baumgartner, leading him 57/39. In addition to having 95% of Democrats
lined up around her she’s taking 16% of the Republican vote and winning
independents 54/40.

“The Washington Governor’s race looks like a toss up,” said Dean Debnam,
President of Public Policy Polling. “Beyond that it doesn’t look like there
will be much suspense about the major statewide contests.”

PPP surveyed 932
likely voters from November 1st to 3rd. The margin of error for the
survey is +/-3.2%.  This poll was not paid for
or authorized by any campaign or political organization. PPP surveys are
conducted through automated telephone interviews.

Topline results are below.  Full results, including crosstabs, can be found here.

Q1 The candidates for President are Democrat
Barack Obama and Republican Mitt Romney.
If the election was today, who would you vote
for?
Barack Obama………………………………………… 53%
Mitt Romney……………………………………………. 46%
Undecided………………………………………………. 1%

Q2 The candidates for Governor are Democrat Jay
Inslee and Republican Rob McKenna. If the
election was today, who would you vote for?
Jay Inslee……………………………………………….. 50%
Rob McKenna …………………………………………. 48%
Undecided………………………………………………. 2%

Q3 Referendum Measure No. 74 deals with
Senate Bill 6239, which would allow same-sex
couples to marry, preserve domestic
partnerships only for seniors, and preserve the
right of clergy or religious organizations to
refuse to perform, recognize, or accommodate
any marriage ceremony. Do you think this bill
should be approved or rejected?
Approved ……………………………………………….. 52%
Rejected…………………………………………………. 42%
Undecided………………………………………………. 6%

Q4 Initiative Measure No. 502 would license and
regulate marijuana production, distribution, and
possession for persons over 21; remove state
law criminal and civil penalties for activities that
it authorizes; tax marijuana sales; and earmark
marijuana-related revenues. If the election was
today, would you vote ‘yes’ or ‘no’ on Initiative
502?
Yes………………………………………………………… 53%
No …………………………………………………………. 44%
Undecided………………………………………………. 3%

Q5 The candidates for Senate are Democrat Maria
Cantwell and Republican Michael
Baumgartner. If the election was today, who
would you vote for?
Maria Cantwell ………………………………………… 57%
Michael Baumgartner……………………………….. 39%
Undecided………………………………………………. 4%

Q6 Do you think same-sex marriage should be
legal or illegal?
Legal …………………. .54%
Illegal ………………… .40%
Not sure …………….. . 5%

Q7 In general, do you think marijuana usage
should be legal or illegal?
Legal …………………. .54%
Illegal ………………… .42%
Not sure …………….. . 4%

Q8 Do you approve or disapprove of President
Barack Obama’s job performance?
Approve …………………………………………………. 48%
Disapprove……………………………………………… 46%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 6%

Q9 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Mitt Romney?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 43%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 52%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 5%

Q10 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Jay Inslee?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 41%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 44%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 15%

Q11 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Rob McKenna?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 48%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 40%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 12%

Q12 Do you approve or disapprove of Senator
Maria Cantwell’s job performance?
Approve …………….. .53%
Disapprove…………. .35%
Not sure …………….. .12%

Q13 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Michael Baumgartner?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 28%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 23%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 49%

Q14 Would you describe yourself as very liberal,
somewhat liberal, moderate, somewhat
conservative, or very conservative?
Very liberal ……………………………………………… 12%
Somewhat liberal …………………………………….. 20%
Moderate………………………………………………… 32%
Somewhat conservative……………………………. 24%
Very conservative ……………………………………. 13%

Q15 If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2.
Woman ………………………………………………….. 54%
Man……………………………………………………….. 46%

Q16 If you are a Democrat, press 1. If a Republican,
press 2. If you are an independent or identify
with another party, press 3.
Democrat ……………………………………………….. 36%
Republican……………………………………………… 32%
Independent/Other…………………………………… 33%

Q17 If you are white, press 1. If other, press 2.
White …………………………………………………….. 81%
Other……………………………………………………… 19%

Q18 If you are 18 to 29 years old, press 1. If 30 to
45, press 2. If 46 to 65, press 3. If you are
older than 65, press 4.
18 to 29………………………………………………….. 12%
30 to 45………………………………………………….. 26%
46 to 65………………………………………………….. 41%
Older than 65………………………………………….. 21%

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