Raleigh, N.C. – In his overwhelming 2008 victory, President Obama turned Virginia blue for the first time since Lyndon Johnson’s landslide in 1964. Some speculate that that was a temporary trend due to be reversed in 2012, but PPP’s first look at the state almost two years from the election suggests otherwise. Just three weeks following the low point of his presidency, Obama leads all four current Republican frontrunners by healthy margins, and has a positive job approval rating in the Old Dominion.
PPP’s final 2008 poll of the state which nailed the actual 53-46 result reflected an electorate in which Democrats outnumbered Republicans by five points. This electorate, at D +1, is more evenly split, but still gives the president a 50-45 job performance mark, better than PPP has measured him almost anywhere in 2010.
Obama posts his strongest leads against Sarah Palin (52-41) and Newt Gingrich (51-40), with smaller advantages over Mike Huckabee (49-44) and Mitt Romney (48-43). The president has at least 91% of his party’s votes against any of the Republicans, with no more than 5% defecting. At 85%, Huckabee gets the most Republican support, and Gingrich, at 79%, the least. A Palin candidacy would be most welcome to the president’s team, as he leads her 53-36 with independents, a far larger margin than he sports against Gingrich (49-41), Huckabee (45-43), or Romney (a 42-42 tie). The flip side is that Obama would get the least Republican support (7%) against Palin than the others (10% against Gingrich and 9% versus the other two).
With a putrid 35-58 favorability rating, Palin, as nationally, is the best known but least liked overall because while the Republican base loves her (though here not quite as much as Huckabee), she is by far the most reviled by Democrats and, close behind Gingrich, the second least liked by independents. Romney does best with unaffiliated voters, at 37-38, narrowly ahead of Huckabee’s 39-43, but his 57-28 with the GOP is far behind third-place Gingrich’s 67-20.
“It’s clearly far too early to write Virginia off the list of swing states for 2012, with Obama looking about as good now as he did in 2008,” said Dean Debnam, President of Public Policy Polling.
PPP surveyed 551 Virginia voters from November 10th to 13th. The margin of error for the survey is +/- 4.2%. Other factors, such as refusal to be interviewed and weighting, may introduce additional error that is more difficult to quantify.
Topline results are below. Full results, including crosstabs, can be found here.
Q1 Do you approve or disapprove of Barack
Obama’s job performance?
Approve …………………………………………………. 50%
Disapprove……………………………………………… 45%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 5%
Q2 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Newt Gingrich?
Favorable ………….. 32%
Unfavorable……….. 53%
Not sure ……………. 15%
Q3 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Mike Huckabee?
Favorable ………….. 40%
Unfavorable……….. 40%
Not sure ……………. 20%
Q4 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Sarah Palin?
Favorable ………….. 35%
Unfavorable……….. 58%
Not sure ……………. 7%
Q5 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Mitt Romney?
Favorable ………….. 33%
Unfavorable……….. 46%
Not sure ……………. 21%
Q6 If the candidates for President in 2012 were
Democrat Barack Obama and Republican
Newt Gingrich, who would you vote for?
Barack Obama………………………………………… 52%
Newt Gingrich …………………………………………. 41%
Undecided………………………………………………. 8%
Q7 If the candidates for President in 2012 were
Democrat Barack Obama and Republican Mike
Huckabee, who would you vote for?
Barack Obama………………………………………… 49%
Mike Huckabee ……………………………………….. 44%
Undecided………………………………………………. 7%
Q8 If the candidates for President in 2012 were
Democrat Barack Obama and Republican
Sarah Palin, who would you vote for?
Barack Obama………………………………………… 51%
Sarah Palin …………………………………………….. 40%
Undecided………………………………………………. 8%
Q9 If the candidates for President in 2012 were
Democrat Barack Obama and Republican Mitt
Romney, who would you vote for?
Barack Obama………………………………………… 48%
Mitt Romney……………………………………………. 43%
Undecided………………………………………………. 9%
Q10 Who did you vote for President in 2008?
John McCain…………………………………………… 44%
Barack Obama………………………………………… 49%
Someone else/Don’t remember …………………. 7%
Q11 If you are a liberal, press 1. If a moderate,
press 2. If a conservative, press 3.
Liberal ……………………………………………………. 19%
Moderate………………………………………………… 44%
Conservative…………………………………………… 37%
Q12 If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2.
Woman ………………………………………………….. 55%
Man……………………………………………………….. 45%
Q13 If you are a Democrat, press 1. If a Republican,
press 2. If you are an independent or identify
with another party, press 3.
Democrat ……………………………………………….. 36%
Republican……………………………………………… 35%
Independent/Other…………………………………… 30%
Q14 If you are white, press 1. If African-American,
press 2. If other, press 3.
White …………………………………………………….. 78%
African-American …………………………………….. 18%
Other……………………………………………………… 4%
Q15 If you are 18 to 29 years old, press 1. If 30 to
45, press 2. If 46 to 65, press 3. If you are
older than 65, press 4.
18 to 29………………………………………………….. 8%
30 to 45………………………………………………….. 30%
46 to 65………………………………………………….. 45%
Older than 65………………………………………….. 18%
