Raleigh, N.C. – The margin has
tightened a bit in the last month and a half, but President Obama maintains his
usual lead in PPP polling of Virginia.
He tops Mitt Romney by five points (50-45) in the latest survey, the
first among likely voters in this fall’s election. In the last one, in early July, Obama was up
eight points (50-42). Romney has made up
ground by bumping his lead among the GOP faithful from 86-9 to 92-5, essentially
matching the president’s 93-5 dominance with his own party’s voters. Romney has also flipped a 36-47 disadvantage
with independents to a nominal 46-43 lead.
The key to the emergence of Virginia as a blue-leaning swing state in recent
cycles is that it is no longer the Old Dominion—about half of the likely
electorate was born in another state, making it a considerably more non-native state
than its southern neighbor North Carolina (38%). And unlike the Tar Heel State, where Romney
enjoys a double-digit advantage with those born there, Obama leads by an
identical margin with both natives and immigrants to Virginia. Like in N.C., however, Obama has two-thirds
of the vote with the 12% who have moved to Virginia in the last decade, and a
56-38 lead with the 49% who moved here within the last 30 years.
As in most states, there is a huge age gap, with Obama up 63-35 with those
under 30 and 52-40 among those aged 30 to 45, but Romney leading 54-41 with
seniors. Obama is also bolstered by
strong leads with his other most important voting blocs—women (55-41), African
Americans (88-11), and other minorities (56-32).
Obama’s lead rises to eight points (50-42) if Constitution Party nominee
Virgil Goode is mentioned as a candidate.
Goode will be on the ballot in his home state, and at the moment pulls
4% of the vote. Goode does not touch
Obama’s support with Democrats or either candidate’s support with independents,
but he pulls Romney’s GOP backing down eight points.
“President Obama has consistently led by five or more points in Virginia,
and it may prove to be his firewall,” said Dean Debnam, President of Public Policy Polling. “Romney essentially cannot win without it.”
PPP surveyed 855 likely Virginia voters from August
16th to 19th. The margin of error for the survey is +/-3.4%.
This poll was not paid for or authorized by any campaign or political
organization. PPP surveys are conducted through automated telephone interviews.
Topline results are below. Full results, including crosstabs, can be found here.
Q1 Do you approve or disapprove of President
Barack Obama’s job performance?
Approve …………………………………………………. 49%
Disapprove……………………………………………… 46%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 5%
Q2 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Mitt Romney?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 46%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 49%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 5%
Q3 If the candidates for President this year were
Democrat Barack Obama and Republican Mitt
Romney, who would you vote for?
Barack Obama………………………………………… 50%
Mitt Romney……………………………………………. 45%
Undecided………………………………………………. 5%
Q4 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Virgil Goode?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 13%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 27%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 60%
Q5 If the candidates for President this fall were
Democrat Barack Obama, Republican Mitt
Romney, and Constitution Party candidate
Virgil Goode, who would you vote for?
Barack Obama………………………………………… 50%
Mitt Romney……………………………………………. 42%
Virgil Goode ……………………………………………. 4%
Undecided………………………………………………. 4%
Q6 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Joe Biden?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 46%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 47%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 7%
Q7 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Paul Ryan?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 47%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 41%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 12%
Q8 If you were allowed to vote directly for Vice
President, would you choose Democrat Joe
Biden or Republican Paul Ryan?
Joe Biden……………………………………………….. 49%
Paul Ryan ………………………………………………. 46%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 5%
Q9 Do you support or oppose Paul Ryan’s
proposal for reforming Medicare?
Support ………………………………………………….. 38%
Oppose ………………………………………………….. 46%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 16%
Q10 Who did you vote for President in 2008?
John McCain…………………………………………… 44%
Barack Obama………………………………………… 51%
Someone else/Don’t remember …………………. 5%
Q11 Would you describe yourself as very liberal,
somewhat liberal, moderate, somewhat
conservative, or very conservative?
Very liberal ……………………………………………… 12%
Somewhat liberal …………………………………….. 16%
Moderate………………………………………………… 32%
Somewhat conservative……………………………. 25%
Very conservative ……………………………………. 15%
Q12 If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2.
Woman ………………………………………………….. 53%
Man……………………………………………………….. 47%
Q13 If you are a Democrat, press 1. If a Republican,
press 2. If you are an independent or identify
with another party, press 3.
Democrat ……………………………………………….. 37%
Republican……………………………………………… 30%
Independent/Other…………………………………… 33%
Q14 If you are white, press 1. If African-American,
press 2. If other, press 3.
White …………………………………………………….. 70%
African-American …………………………………….. 17%
Other……………………………………………………… 12%
Q15 If you are 18 to 29 years old, press 1. If 30 to
45, press 2. If 46 to 65, press 3. If you are
older than 65, press 4.
18 to 29………………………………………………….. 15%
30 to 45………………………………………………….. 28%
46 to 65………………………………………………….. 37%
Older than 65………………………………………….. 20%
Q16 Were you born in Virginia or in another state?
Virginia…………………………………………………… 49%
Another state ………………………………………….. 51%
Q17 How long have you lived in Virginia: 10 years
or less, 11 to 20 years, 21 to 30 years, 31 to 40
years, or more than 40 years?
10 years or less ………………………………………. 12%
11 to 20 years …………………………………………. 19%
21 to 30 years …………………………………………. 18%
31 to 40 years …………………………………………. 19%
More than 40 years………………………………….. 31%
