Raleigh, N.C. – It is not only Patty Murray and Harry Reid and President Obama urging current DNC Chairman and former Virginia Governor Tim Kaine to jump into the void left by Jim Webb’s retirement. His home state’s party faithful want him to be their Senate nominee by enormous margins over anyone else.
In a field of eight Virginia Democrats who could potentially take the plunge, Kaine comes away with the support of 53% of usual Democratic primary voters. 9% favor an unnamed option or are not sure, and the rest of the offered candidates are bunched in single digits. Former congressmen Rick Boucher and Tom Perriello and current Rep. Bobby Scott are each the preference of 9%, with former Governor Doug Wilder at 8%, Rep. Gerry Connolly at 3%, and former Rep. Glenn Nye at only 1%.
If the field is narrowed to only Kaine, Boucher, and Perriello, Kaine is further strengthened to 65%, followed by Perriello’s 15% and Boucher’s 11%. 9% are also not sure in this variation.
Kaine has a superb 75-10 favorability margin with his base, better than his possible general-election opponent George Allen’s 68-15 with Republicans. Kaine also easily bests the other two in popularity. Perriello bosts a decent 34-15, but Boucher is actually disliked, 16-22. Neither of the recently defeated congressmen is known to a majority of these voters, so both have room to improve either against Kaine or if Kaine declines a bid.
“Tim Kaine is the heavy-hitter who would be the strongest candidate against George Allen or any of the other Republicans,” said Dean Debnam, President of Public Policy Polling. “We’re showing Kaine and Allen neck-and-neck, but right now, Allen has healthy leads over the other two little-known Democrats, Boucher and Perriello.”
The Democrats in Virginia are, at least by their own self-definition, not as extreme as their Republican counterparts. As Thursday’s release showed, over three-quarters of Republican primary voters say they are either very or somewhat conservative, but only half of Democrats think themselves either very (19%) or somewhat (31%) liberal, while a 38% plurality call themselves moderates. There are also more conservatives among Democrats (13%) than there are liberals in the GOP (5%).
PPP surveyed 400 usual Virginia Democratic primary voters from February 24th to 27th. The survey’s margin of error is +/-4.9%. Other factors, such as refusal to be interviewed and weighting, may introduce additional error that is more difficult to quantify.
Topline results are below. Full results, including crosstabs, can be found here.
Q1 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Rick Boucher?
Favorable ………….. 16%
Unfavorable……….. 22%
Not sure ……………. 61%
Q2 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Tim Kaine?
Favorable ………….. 75%
Unfavorable……….. 10%
Not sure ……………. 14%
Q3 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Tom Perriello?
Favorable ………….. 34%
Unfavorable……….. 15%
Not sure ……………. 52%
Q4 Between Rick Boucher, Gerry Connolly, Tim
Kaine, Glenn Nye, Tom Perriello, Bobby Scott,
and Doug Wilder who would you most like to
see as the Democratic candidate for Senate
next year?
Rick Boucher ………………………………………….. 9%
Gerry Connolly………………………………………… 3%
Tim Kaine……………………………………………….. 53%
Glenn Nye………………………………………………. 1%
Tom Perriello…………………………………………… 9%
Bobby Scott ……………………………………………. 9%
Doug Wilder ……………………………………………. 8%
Someone else/Not sure ……………………………. 9%
Q5 If the choices were just Rick Boucher, Tim
Kaine, and Tom Perriello who would you most
like to see as the Democratic candidate for
Senate next year?
Rick Boucher ………………………………………….. 11%
Tim Kaine……………………………………………….. 65%
Tom Perriello…………………………………………… 15%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 9%
Q6 Would you describe yourself as very liberal,
somewhat liberal, moderate, somewhat
conservative, or very conservative?
Very liberal ……………………………………………… 19%
Somewhat liberal …………………………………….. 31%
Moderate………………………………………………… 38%
Somewhat conservative……………………………. 9%
Very conservative ……………………………………. 4%
Q7 If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2.
Woman ………………………………………………….. 57%
Man……………………………………………………….. 43%
Q8 If you are white, press 1. If African-American,
press 2. If other, press 3.
White …………………………………………………….. 62%
African-American …………………………………….. 34%
Other……………………………………………………… 4%
Q9 If you are 18 to 29 years old, press 1. If 30 to
45, press 2. If 46 to 65, press 3. If you are
older than 65, press 4.
18 to 29………………………………………………….. 5%
30 to 45………………………………………………….. 21%
46 to 65………………………………………………….. 46%
Older than 65………………………………………….. 28%
