Raleigh, N.C. – There is no question who Virginia’s Republicans want to represent them in the 2012 U.S. Senate campaign. George Allen should get enough support to clear the field in a bid to return to the office he vacated only four years ago, with 46% of his party’s faithful currently preferring him to anyone else. Eric Cantor, extremely unlikely to be in the running after rising to Majority Leader in the U.S. House come January, is way behind at 18%, with Ken Cuccinelli, maybe cashing in on his quick rise in socially conservative circles, at 16%. No one else gets more than 4%.
The field for President, however, is much more wide-open. Mike Huckabee now prevails with 21%, but Newt Gingrich, the currently leader also in southern neighbor North Carolina, is right on his heels at 20%, with Sarah Palin’s 17% and Mitt Romney’s 15% also within the margin of error of the lead. Way behind are Ron Paul at 7%, Tim Pawlenty at 5%, Mitch Daniels at 3%, and John Thune at 2%. 11% are undecided or prefer someone not named.
Gingrich does so well based on his strength with the conservative supermajority, and Huckabee with women. Conservatives are 72% of the electorate, and Gingrich has a narrow 22-21 lead with them over Huckabee, with Palin at 17% and Romney at 13%. But with the 26% share of moderates, Huckabee and Palin are tied at 20% to Romney’s 18% and Gingrich at only 14%. With men, Huckabee is in third at 17% to Gingrich’s 20%, Palin’s 19%, and Romney’s 14%, but he leads with 24% among women to Gingrich’s 20%, Romney’s 16%, and Palin’s 15%. All four are very well liked, with anywhere from almost 3:1 to exactly 4:1 favorability margins.
“Virginia Republicans clearly want George Allen as their nominee,” said Dean Debnam, President of Public Policy Polling. “With these kinds of numbers if he gets into the race he’s probably a field clearer.”
PPP surveyed 400 usual Virginia Republican primary voters from November 10th to 13th. The margin of error for the survey is +/- 4.9%. Other factors, such as refusal to be interviewed and weighting, may introduce additional error that is more difficult to quantify.
Topline results are below. Full results, including crosstabs, can be found here.
Q1 Between George Allen, Bill Bolling, Eric Cantor,
Ken Cuccinelli, Tom Davis, and Bob Marshall
who would you most like to see as the
Republican Senate nominee in 2012?
George Allen…………………………………………… 46%
Bill Bolling ………………………………………………. 4%
Eric Cantor……………………………………………… 18%
Ken Cuccinelli …………………………………………. 16%
Tom Davis………………………………………………. 4%
Bob Marshall…………………………………………… 2%
Someone else…………………………………………. 1%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 8%
Q2 If the Republican candidates for President in
2012 were Mitch Daniels, Newt Gingrich, Mike
Huckabee, Sarah Palin, Ron Paul, Tim
Pawlenty, Mitt Romney, and John Thune who
would you vote for?
Mitch Daniels ………………………………………….. 3%
Newt Gingrich …………………………………………. 20%
Mike Huckabee ……………………………………….. 21%
Sarah Palin …………………………………………….. 17%
Ron Paul ………………………………………………… 7%
Tim Pawlenty ………………………………………….. 5%
Mitt Romney……………………………………………. 15%
John Thune…………………………………………….. 2%
Someone else/Undecided…………………………. 11%
Q3 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Newt Gingrich?
Favorable ………….. 64%
Unfavorable……….. 20%
Not sure ……………. 16%
Q4 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Mike Huckabee?
Favorable ………….. 72%
Unfavorable……….. 18%
Not sure ……………. 11%
Q5 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Sarah Palin?
Favorable ………….. 70%
Unfavorable……….. 24%
Not sure ……………. 6%
Q6 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Mitt Romney?
Favorable ………….. 63%
Unfavorable……….. 22%
Not sure ……………. 15%
Q7 If you are a liberal, press 1. If a moderate,
press 2. If a conservative, press 3.
Liberal ……………………………………………………. 2%
Moderate………………………………………………… 26%
Conservative…………………………………………… 72%
Q8 If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2.
Woman ………………………………………………….. 49%
Man……………………………………………………….. 51%
Q9 If you are 18 to 29 years old, press 1. If 30 to
45, press 2. If 46 to 65, press 3. If you are
older than 65, press 4.
18 to 29………………………………………………….. 8%
30 to 45………………………………………………….. 28%
46 to 65………………………………………………….. 40%
Older than 65………………………………………….. 24%
