Raleigh, N.C. – Republicans have an eight-point advantage in partisan identification in Montana, and the essentially unknown Republican candidates for Denny Rehberg’s soon-to-be-abandoned at-large U.S. House seat unsurprisingly have a four- to ten-point edge over the equally faceless potential Democratic nominees at this nascent stage in the race.
At most 21% of Big Sky voters have an idea who any of the four tested candidates for the seat are, and that is Steve Daines, the GOP establishment’s choice. As the lieutenant governor nominee just three years ago, he is the only one to have run statewide, yet most have forgotten about him. The only other announced Republican is John Abarr, whose claim to fame is that he is an unabashed Ku Klux Klan member. Yet while Abarr is the least-known and least-liked of the four candidates (3% favorable, 10% unfavorable), there is hardly a difference between his favorability rating and any of the others.
Daines leads Democrats Kim Gillan, 35-27, and Franke Wilmer, 35-25. But Abarr would start out ahead too, based on partisan cues. He leads Gillan, 30-26, and Wilmer, 33-25. With 38-44% undecided—more than favor any one of the candidates—and the names so unfamiliar, this is little more than a baseline generic ballot test.
In all but one matchup, Republicans are slightly more unified behind their theoretical nominee than the Democrats around theirs, and independents seem to be leaning Republican in this contest, as in the presidential race. With little to go on but party labels, respondents not belonging to either party choose the GOP candidate by margins of five to 11 points. As the race shapes up and the candidates become better known, there is potential for Democrats to pick up some independent votes; a previous release showed Jon Tester leading Rehberg by 15 points in his Senate re-election race.
“With none of the candidates having any sort of name recognition at this point it’s hard to say how the race will unfold,” said Dean Debnam, President of Public Policy Polling.
PPP surveyed 819 Montana voters from June 16th to 19th. The margin of error for the survey is +/-3.4%. This poll was not paid for or authorized by any campaign or political organization. PPP surveys are conducted through automated telephone interviews. PPP is a Democratic polling company, but polling expert Nate Silver of the New York Times found that its surveys in 2010 actually exhibited a slight bias toward Republican candidates.
Topline results are below. Full results, including crosstabs, can be found here.
Q1 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of John Abarr?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 3%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 10%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 86%
Q2 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Steve Daines?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 9%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 12%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 79%
Q3 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Kim Gillan?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 7%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 9%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 84%
Q4 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Franke Wilmer?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 5%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 10%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 86%
Q5 If the candidates for House next year were
Republican John Abarr and Democrat Kim
Gillan, who would you vote for?
John Abarr ……………………………………………… 30%
Kim Gillan ………………………………………………. 26%
Undecided………………………………………………. 44%
Q6 If the candidates for House next year were
Republican John Abarr and Democrat Franke
Wilmer, who would you vote for?
John Abarr ……………………………………………… 33%
Franke Wilmer ………………………………………… 25%
Undecided………………………………………………. 42%
Q7 If the candidates for House next year were
Republican Steve Daines and Democrat Kim
Gillan, who would you vote for?
Steve Daines ………………………………………….. 35%
Kim Gillan ………………………………………………. 27%
Undecided………………………………………………. 38%
Q8 If the candidates for House next year were
Republican Steve Daines and Democrat
Franke Wilmer, who would you vote for?
Steve Daines ………………………………………….. 35%
Franke Wilmer ………………………………………… 25%
Undecided………………………………………………. 40%
Q9 Would you describe yourself as very liberal,
somewhat liberal, moderate, somewhat
conservative, or very conservative?
Very liberal ……………………………………………… 9%
Somewhat liberal …………………………………….. 19%
Moderate………………………………………………… 27%
Somewhat conservative……………………………. 25%
Very conservative ……………………………………. 21%
Q10 If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2.
Woman ………………………………………………….. 54%
Man……………………………………………………….. 46%
Q11 If you are a Democrat, press 1. If a Republican,
press 2. If you are an independent or identify
with another party, press 3.
Democrat ……………………………………………….. 31%
Republican……………………………………………… 39%
Independent/Other…………………………………… 30%
Q12 If you are white, press 1. If other, press 2.
White …………………………………………………….. 93%
Other……………………………………………………… 7%
Q13 If you are 18 to 29 years old, press 1. If 30 to
45, press 2. If 46 to 65, press 3. If you are
older than 65, press 4.
18 to 29………………………………………………….. 12%
30 to 45………………………………………………….. 28%
46 to 65………………………………………………….. 40%
Older than 65………………………………………….. 20%
