Polls

Undecided Leads GOP and Dem. Races for MI Governor

| Tom Jensen

Header-poll-resultsRaleigh, N.C.Just over two months from the August 3rd primary, the candidates are running neck-and-neck in the Democratic and Republican races to determine who will face off to succeed Governor Jennifer Granholm.

In the GOP battle, four candidates are within the margin of error of the lead.  Venture capitalist Rick Snyder tops Congressman Pete Hoekstra, 20% to 19%, with Attorney General Mike Cox at 17%, Oakland County Sheriff Mike Bouchard at 15%, and State Senator Tom George at 9%.  As many voters, 20%, are undecided as support the leader.  Hoekstra leads at 21% among the 71% conservative majority, with the other candidates close behind and a few points between each.  Snyder gets 28% among the 21% moderate minority, with the other three leading contenders at 18%.

Hoekstra is the most popular of the Republicans, with a 43-17 favorability mark, to Snyder’s 34-10, Cox’s 41-24, Bouchard’s 31-15, and George’s 7-10.  Still, anywhere from 36 to 83% of the most attuned GOP voters have no opinion of each.

In the Democratic contest, Lansing Mayor Virg Bernero edges State House Speaker Andy Dillon, 26-23, with almost twice as many, 51%, undecided as support Bernero.  Bernero is favored by the 32% liberal minority, 38-15, while Dillon leads among the 49% moderate plurality and 19% conservative minority, 29-27 and 20-5, respectively.

Two-thirds to three-quarters of the most informed Democrats are not aware of these two candidates, and neither has a positive favorability grade.  Bernero is a little less known but slightly more popular, with a 13-14 to Dillon’s 14-19.

“Voters really aren’t tuned into the Governor’s race yet,” said Dean Debnam, President of PPP  “The numbers could change a lot as the candidates become better known.”

PPP surveyed 377 likely Michigan Republican primary voters, with a margin of error of +/-5.1%, and 314 likely Democratic primary voters, with a margin of error of +/-5.5%, from May 25th to 27th.  Other factors, such as refusal to be interviewed and weighting, may introduce additional error that is more difficult to quantify.

If you would like an interview regarding this release, please contact Dean Debnam at (888) 621-6988 or 919-880-4888.

Topline results are below. Full results, including crosstabs, can be found here.

Q1 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Mike Bouchard?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 31%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 15%
Not Sure…………………………………………………. 54%

Q2 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Mike Cox?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 41%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 24%
Not Sure…………………………………………………. 36%

Q3 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Tom George?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 7%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 10%
Not Sure…………………………………………………. 83%

Q4 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Pete Hoekstra?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 43%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 17%
Not Sure…………………………………………………. 41%

Q5 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Rick Snyder?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 34%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 10%
Not Sure…………………………………………………. 56%

Q6 If the Republican candidates for governor were
Mike Bouchard, Mike Cox, Tom George, Pete
Hoekstra, and Rick Snyder, who would you
vote for?
Mike Bouchard………………………………………… 15%
Mike Cox………………………………………………… 17%
Tom George……………………………………………. 9%
Pete Hoekstra…………………………………………. 19%
Rick Snyder ……………………………………………. 20%
Undecided………………………………………………. 20%

Q7 Would you describe yourself as a liberal,
moderate, or conservative?
Liberal ……………………………………………………. 5%
Moderate………………………………………………… 24%
Conservative…………………………………………… 71%

Q8 If you are a woman, press 1, if a man, press 2.
Woman ………………………………………………….. 47%
Man……………………………………………………….. 53%

Q9 If you are a Democrat, press 1. If you are a
Republican, press 2. If you are an independent
or identify with another party, press 3.
Democrat ……………………………………………….. 6%
Republican……………………………………………… 74%
Independent/Other…………………………………… 21%

Q10 If you are 18 to 29 years old, press 1 now. If
you are 30 to 45, press 2. If you are 46 to 65,
press 3. If older, press 4.
18 to 29………………………………………………….. 6%
30 to 45………………………………………………….. 28%
46 to 65………………………………………………….. 43%
Older than 65………………………………………….. 23%

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