Polls

TX GOP prefers Perry for president, Dewhurst for senate

| Tom Jensen

Header-poll-results

President_Primary_Perry_Graph Raleigh, N.C. – When PPP polled the Texas Republican Presidential field in January, Rick Perry was stuck in sixth place with only 9% of the vote. Now, with renewed speculation over a Perry bid, Perry leads with 31%. Perry more than doubles Mitt Romney’s 15%. Romney is followed by Michele Bachmann with 11%, Ron Paul and Sarah Palin with 9%, Newt Gingrich with 8%, Herman Cain with 6%, and Tim Pawlenty with 2%. Perry is strong with very conservative voters, taking 34%, but trails Paul and Romney with moderates; however, moderates make up only 15% of GOP voters.

President_Primary_Graph If Perry doesn’t throw his hat into the ring, Romney and Bachmann are neck and neck. Romney takes 17% to Bachmann’s 16%, Palin’s 14%, Gingrich’s 11%, Cain’s 8%, Pawlenty’s 6%, and Huntsman’s 5%. In a variation from the norm, if Palin does not run in Texas, Romney remains just as strong taking 21% while Bachmann takes 19%, Gingrich takes 13%, Paul takes 12%, Cain takes 10%, Pawlenty takes 7%, and Huntsman takes 5%. Since Bachmann and Perry both show strength with very conservative voters, a Perry run could end up weakening Bachmann’s position considerably.

Senate_Republican_Primary_Graph If David Dewhurst chooses to run for the Senate seat Hutchison is vacating, he starts with a considerable leg up in the primary. Dewhurst leads with 40% followed by Ted Cruz and Dan Patrick with 11%, Tom Leppert with 5%, Elizabeth Ames Jones with 3%, Glenn Addison and Roger Williams (who announced last week he will instead run for the House) with 2%, and Lela Pittenger with 0%. The contest may narrow as over 70% of voters have not yet formed an opinion of either Cruz or Leppert. Nevertheless, Dewhurst has the advantage.

The contest is a whole different ballgame if Dewhurst chooses not to enter the fray. In this case, undecided rules the day. Its 40% more than doubles the support of the strongest candidate. Cruz has a narrow lead with 16% to 13% for Patrick, 12% for Leppert, 11% for Jones, 4% for Addison, 3% for Williams, and again 0% for Pittenger.

PPP surveyed 400 usual Texas Republican primary voters from June 25th to 27th. The margin of error for the survey is +/-4.9%. This poll was not paid for or authorized by any campaign or political organization. PPP surveys are conducted through automated telephone interviews. PPP is a Democratic polling company, but polling expert Nate Silver of the New York Times found that its surveys in 2010 actually exhibited a slight bias toward Republican candidates.

Topline results are below. Full results, including crosstabs, can be found here.

Q1 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Michele Bachmann?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 51%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 27%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 22%

Q2 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Herman Cain?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 41%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 23%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 37%

Q3 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Sarah Palin?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 62%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 31%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 7%

Q4 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Tim Pawlenty?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 36%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 25%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 39%

Q5 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Mitt Romney?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 49%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 34%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 17%

Q6 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Ron Paul?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 37%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 45%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 18%

Q7 Do you approve or disapprove of Governor
Rick Perry’s job performance?
Approve …………………………………………………. 64%
Disapprove……………………………………………… 29%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 6%

Q8 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Ted Cruz?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 7%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 13%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 79%

Q9 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of David Dewhurst?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 42%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 17%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 41%

Q10 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Tom Leppert?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 10%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 16%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 74%

Q11 Given the choices of Glenn Addison, Ted Cruz,
David Dewhurst, Elizabeth Ames Jones, Tom
Leppert, Dan Patrick, Lela Pittenger, and
Roger Williams, who would you most like to
see as the Republican Senate candidate next
year?
Glenn Addison ………………………………………… 2%
Ted Cruz ………………………………………………… 11%
David Dewhurst ………………………………………. 40%
Elizabeth Ames Jones………………………………. 3%
Tom Leppert……………………………………………. 5%
Dan Patrick …………………………………………….. 11%
Lela Pittenger………………………………………….. 0%
Roger Williams………………………………………… 2%
Someone else/Not sure ……………………………. 26%

Q12 If David Dewhurst didn’t run for Senate, and
the choices were just Glenn Addison, Ted Cruz,
Elizabeth Ames Jones, Tom Leppert, Dan
Patrick, Lela Pittenger, and Roger Williams,
who would you most like to see as the
Republican Senate candidate next year?
Glenn Addison ………………………………………… 4%
Ted Cruz ………………………………………………… 16%
Elizabeth Ames Jones………………………………. 11%
Tom Leppert……………………………………………. 12%
Dan Patrick …………………………………………….. 13%
Lela Pittenger………………………………………….. 0%
Roger Williams………………………………………… 3%
Someone else/Not sure ……………………………. 40%

Q13 Given the choices of Michele Bachmann,
Herman Cain, Newt Gingrich, Jon Huntsman,
Sarah Palin, Ron Paul, Tim Pawlenty, and Mitt
Romney, who would you most like to see as
the Republican candidate for President next
year?
Michele Bachmann ………………………………….. 16%
Herman Cain…………………………………………… 8%
Newt Gingrich …………………………………………. 11%
Jon Huntsman…………………………………………. 5%
Sarah Palin …………………………………………….. 14%
Ron Paul ………………………………………………… 10%
Tim Pawlenty ………………………………………….. 6%
Mitt Romney……………………………………………. 17%
Someone else/Not sure ……………………………. 13%

Q14 If Sarah Palin didn’t run, and the choices were
just Michele Bachmann, Herman Cain, Newt
Gingrich, Jon Huntsman, Ron Paul, Tim
Pawlenty, and Mitt Romney, who would you
most like to see as the nominee?
Michele Bachmann ………………………………….. 19%
Herman Cain…………………………………………… 10%
Newt Gingrich …………………………………………. 13%
Jon Huntsman…………………………………………. 5%
Ron Paul ………………………………………………… 12%
Tim Pawlenty ………………………………………….. 7%
Mitt Romney……………………………………………. 21%
Someone else/Not sure ……………………………. 13%

Q15 If Rick Perry ran for president, and the choices
were Michele Bachmann, Herman Cain, Newt
Gingrich, Sarah Palin, Ron Paul, Tim Pawlenty,
Rick Perry, and Mitt Romney, who would you
most like to see as the nominee?
Michele Bachmann ………………………………….. 11%
Herman Cain…………………………………………… 6%
Newt Gingrich …………………………………………. 8%
Sarah Palin …………………………………………….. 9%
Ron Paul ………………………………………………… 9%
Tim Pawlenty ………………………………………….. 2%
Rick Perry ………………………………………………. 31%
Mitt Romney……………………………………………. 15%
Someone else/Not sure ……………………………. 9%

Q16 Do you think Texas should secede from the
United States, or not?
Texas should secede ……………………………….. 26%
It should not ……………………………………………. 62%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 12%

Q17 Would you describe yourself as very liberal,
somewhat liberal, moderate, somewhat
conservative, or very conservative?
Very liberal ……………………………………………… 3%
Somewhat liberal …………………………………….. 5%
Moderate………………………………………………… 15%
Somewhat conservative……………………………. 34%
Very conservative ……………………………………. 43%

Q18 If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2.
Woman ………………………………………………….. 45%
Man……………………………………………………….. 55%

Q19 If you are 18 to 29 years old, press 1. If 30 to
45, press 2. If 46 to 65, press 3. If you are
older than 65, press 4.
18 to 29………………………………………………….. 5%
30 to 45………………………………………………….. 20%
46 to 65………………………………………………….. 43%
Older than 65………………………………………….. 32%

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