Raleigh, N.C. – Republican Bob Turner is poised to pull a huge upset in the race to replace Anthony Weiner as the Congressman from New York’s 9th Congressional District. He leads Democrat David Weprin 47-41 with Socialist Workers candidate Christopher Hoeppner at 4% and 7% of voters remaining undecided.
Turner’s winning in a heavily Democratic district for two reasons: a huge lead with independents and a large amount of crossover support. He’s ahead by 32 points at 58-26 with voters unaffiliated with either major party. And he’s winning 29% of the Democratic vote, holding Weprin under 60% with voters of his own party, while losing just 10% of Republican partisans.
If Turner wins on Tuesday it will be largely due to the incredible unpopularity of Barack Obama dragging his party down in the district. Obama won 55% there in 2008 but now has a staggeringly bad 31% approval rating, with 56% of voters disapproving of him. It’sa given that Republicans don’t like him but more shocking are his 16% approval rating with independents and the fact that he’s below 50% even with Democrats at 46% approving and 38% disapproving.
Beyond Obama’s weakness, Turner has actually proven to be a pretty strong candidate. 45% of voters rate him favorably to 30% with a negative opinion. Independents give him good marks by a 56/17 spread and he has better than normal numbers across party lines with 29% of Democrats expressing a positive view of him to just 43% with an unfavorable one. Weprin has been much maligned as a candidate but he actually has positive favorability numbers too with 39% of voters rating him positively and 36%
negatively.
“If Republicans win this race on Tuesday it’s real world evidence of how unpopular Barack Obama is right now,” said Dean Debnam, President of Public Policy Polling. “Approval polls are one thing but for the GOP to win in a heavily Democratic district like this would send a strong message about how unhappy voters are.”
PPP surveyed 664 likely New York 9th Congressional District voters from from September 8th to 11th and the margin of error for the poll is +/-3.8. This poll was not paid for or authorized by any campaign or political organization. PPP surveys are conducted through automated telephone interviews. PPP is a Democratic polling company, but polling expert Nate Silver of the New York Times found that its surveys in 2010 actually exhibited a slight bias toward Republican candidates.
Topline results are below. Full results, including crosstabs, can be found here.
Q1 The candidates in the special election for
Congress are Republican Bob Turner,
Democrat David Weprin, and Socialist Workers
Party candidate Christopher Hoeppner. If the
election was today, who would you vote for?
Bob Turner ……………………………………………… 47%
David Weprin ………………………………………….. 41%
Christopher Hoeppner………………………………. 4%
Undecided………………………………………………. 7%
Q2 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Bob Turner?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 45%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 30%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 24%
Q3 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of David Weprin?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 39%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 36%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 24%
Q4 Do you approve or disapprove of President
Barack Obama’s job performance?
Approve …………………………………………………. 31%
Disapprove……………………………………………… 56%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 13%
Q5 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Rick Perry?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 26%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 35%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 39%
Q6 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Mitt Romney?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 33%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 33%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 34%
Q7 If the candidates for President next year were
Democrat Barack Obama and Republican Rick
Perry, who would you vote for?
Barack Obama………………………………………… 44%
Rick Perry ………………………………………………. 43%
Undecided………………………………………………. 13%
Q8 If the candidates for President next year were
Democrat Barack Obama and Republican Mitt
Romney, who would you vote for?
Barack Obama………………………………………… 42%
MItt Romney …………………………………………… 46%
Undecided………………………………………………. 12%
Q9 Do you approve or disapprove of Barack
Obama’s leadership on Israel?
Approve …………………………………………………. 30%
Disapprove……………………………………………… 54%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 16%
Q10 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Anthony Weiner?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 29%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 53%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 18%
Q11 How important was the issue of Israel in
deciding who to vote for Congress: very
important, somewhat important, or not all that
important?
Very important…………………………………………. 37%
Somewhat important ………………………………… 32%
Not all that important………………………………… 29%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 3%
Q12 Do you think same-sex marriage should be
legal or illegal?
Legal……………………………………………………… 41%
Illegal …………………………………………………….. 45%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 14%
Q13 How important was the issue of same-sex
marriage in deciding who to vote for Congress:
very important, somewhat important, or not all
that important?
Very important…………………………………………. 29%
Somewhat important ………………………………… 26%
Not all that important………………………………… 44%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 1%
Q14 Do you approve or disapprove of the job
Congressional Republicans are doing?
Approve …………………………………………………. 31%
Disapprove……………………………………………… 50%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 19%
Q15 Do you have more faith in Barack Obama or
Congressional Republicans to lead the country
in the right direction?
Barack Obama………………………………………… 42%
Congressional Republicans ………………………. 44%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 14%
Q16 Would you rather that Democrats or
Republicans had control of the US House?
Democrats ……………………………………………… 44%
Republicans ……………………………………………. 45%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 11%
Q17 Do you approve or disapprove of Governor
Andrew Cuomo’s job performance?
Approve …………………………………………………. 59%
Disapprove……………………………………………… 16%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 25%
Q18 Do you approve or disapprove of Mayor
Michael Bloomberg’s job performance?
Approve …………………………………………………. 44%
Disapprove……………………………………………… 43%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 13%
Q19 Do you approve or disapprove of Senator
Kirsten Gillibrand’s job performance?
Approve …………………………………………………. 35%
Disapprove……………………………………………… 28%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 37%
Q20 Do you approve or disapprove of Senator
Chuck Schumer’s job performance?
Approve …………………………………………………. 51%
Disapprove……………………………………………… 35%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 14%
Q21 Who did you vote for President in 2008?
John McCain…………………………………………… 34%
Barack Obama………………………………………… 55%
Someone else/Don’t remember …………………. 10%
Q22 Would you describe yourself as very liberal,
somewhat liberal, moderate, somewhat
conservative, or very conservative?
Very liberal ……………………………………………… 14%
Somewhat liberal …………………………………….. 21%
Moderate………………………………………………… 30%
Somewhat conservative……………………………. 22%
Very conservative ……………………………………. 13%
Q23 If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2.
Woman ………………………………………………….. 53%
Man……………………………………………………….. 47%
Q24 If you are a Democrat, press 1. If a
Republican, press 2. If you are an independent
or a member of another party, press 3.
Democrat ……………………………………………….. 59%
Republican……………………………………………… 25%
Independent/Other…………………………………… 15%
Q25 If you are Hispanic, press 1. If white, press 2.
If Asian, press 3. If other, press 4.
Hispanic…………………………………………………. 18%
White …………………………………………………….. 65%
Asian……………………………………………………… 9%
Other……………………………………………………… 8%
Q26 If you are 18 to 29 years old, press 1. If 30 to
45, press 2. If 46 to 65, press 3. If you are
older than 65, press 4.
18 to 29………………………………………………….. 14%
30 to 45………………………………………………….. 26%
46 to 65………………………………………………….. 37%
Older than 65………………………………………….. 23%
Q27 Are you Jewish, Catholic, some other type of
Christian, another religion, or no religion at all?
Jewish……………………………………………………. 36%
Catholic………………………………………………….. 31%
Some other type of Christian …………………….. 10%
Another religion……………………………………….. 9%
No religion at all ………………………………………. 8%
Don’t care to say……………………………………… 5%
