Raleigh, N.C. – Few in the media and pundit class are taking Donald Trump seriously as a presidential contender, but evidently New Hampshire Republicans are. Neighboring Massachusetts’ Mitt Romney leads in every variation of the potential GOP field, but his grip on the state is slimmest with Trump in the mix.
Overall, Romney is about where he was when he finished second to John McCain in 2008, with 32% of the vote then and 31% now. But that is a far cry from the 40% he earned when PPP last polled the race just before last November’s election. Behind him are Mike Huckabee (15%), Newt Gingrich (13%), Sarah Palin and Ron Paul (10%), Tim Pawlenty and Michele Bachmann (4%), and Haley Barbour (2%), with 12% undecided.
That 2:1 margin would severely narrow if Trump makes good on his flirtation. Romney would still lead but with only 27% to Trump’s 21%, Gingrich and Huckabee each at 12%, and the others in single digits. Trump’s flogging of the birther conspiracy theory of late has gotten him a lot of traction. PPP recently found that 51% of GOP voters nationwide doubt Obama’s citizenship. While that number is only 42% here, Trump actually leads Romney 22-21 with birthers, while no other candidate comes nearly that close in the other variations.
Romney may already have been dragged down by “Romneycare,” but he has likely not yet reached his floor. Romney dominates with those who say they would vote for a candidate who supported a health insurance mandate at the state level, but they make up only 14% of the electorate. 61% are against a mandate. While they still give him more support than they do the other candidates in almost every permutation, that fact suggests that as more of these voters are reminded by Romney’s opponents of his past actions on health care, the lower he will fall.
“Mitt Romney’s looked like the runaway favorite in all of our New Hampshire polling to date,” said Dean Debnam, President of Public Policy Polling. “Donald Trump’s the first person to hold him to a single digit lead. He really could prove to be a serious candidate if he gets into the race.”
PPP surveyed 384 usual New Hampshire Republican primary voters from March 31st to April 3rd. The survey’s margin of error is +/-5.0%. Other factors, such as refusal to be interviewed and weighting, may introduce additional error that is more difficult to quantify.
Topline results are below. Full results, including crosstabs, can be found here.
Q1 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Newt Gingrich?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 45%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 36%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 19%
Q2 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Mike Huckabee?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 48%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 36%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 16%
Q3 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Sarah Palin?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 51%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 39%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 10%
Q4 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Mitt Romney?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 68%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 19%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 13%
Q5 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Donald Trump?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 41%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 43%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 16%
Q6 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Michele Bachmann?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 38%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 18%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 44%
Q7 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Haley Barbour?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 24%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 16%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 60%
Q8 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Ron Paul?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 53%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 21%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 26%
Q9 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Tim Pawlenty?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 34%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 14%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 51%
Q10 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Rick Santorum?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 30%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 17%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 53%
Q11 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Herman Cain?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 9%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 13%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 78%
Q12 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Rudy Giuliani?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 62%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 22%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 15%
Q13 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Mitch Daniels?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 14%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 11%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 75%
Q14 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Jon Huntsman?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 8%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 13%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 79%
Q15 If the Republican candidates for President next
year were Michele Bachmann, Haley Barbour,
Newt Gingrich, Mike Huckabee, Sarah Palin,
Ron Paul, Tim Pawlenty, and Mitt Romney who
would you vote for?
Michele Bachmann ………………………………….. 4%
Haley Barbour…………………………………………. 2%
Newt Gingrich …………………………………………. 13%
Mike Huckabee ……………………………………….. 15%
Sarah Palin …………………………………………….. 10%
Ron Paul ………………………………………………… 10%
Tim Pawlenty ………………………………………….. 4%
Mitt Romney……………………………………………. 31%
Someone else/Undecided…………………………. 12%
Q16 Let’s say that Mike Huckabee didn’t run for
President next year and the candidates were
just Michele Bachmann, Haley Barbour, Newt
Gingrich, Sarah Palin, Ron Paul, Tim Pawlenty,
and Mitt Romney. Who would you vote for?
Michele Bachmann ………………………………….. 4%
Haley Barbour…………………………………………. 2%
Newt Gingrich …………………………………………. 14%
Sarah Palin …………………………………………….. 14%
Ron Paul ………………………………………………… 13%
Tim Pawlenty ………………………………………….. 5%
Mitt Romney……………………………………………. 37%
Someone else/Undecided…………………………. 11%
Q17 Now let’s say that Mike Huckabee did run for
President next year but that Sarah Palin did not
and the candidates were Michele Bachmann,
Haley Barbour, Newt Gingrich, Mike Huckabee,
Ron Paul, Tim Pawlenty, and Mitt Romney.
Who would you vote for?
Michele Bachmann ………………………………….. 7%
Haley Barbour…………………………………………. 2%
Newt Gingrich …………………………………………. 13%
Mike Huckabee ……………………………………….. 14%
Ron Paul ………………………………………………… 13%
Tim Pawlenty ………………………………………….. 6%
Mitt Romney……………………………………………. 35%
Someone else/Undecided…………………………. 10%
Q18 Now let’s say that neither Mike Huckabee nor
Sarah Palin ran for President next year and the
candidates were Michele Bachmann, Haley
Barbour, Newt Gingrich, Ron Paul, Tim
Pawlenty, and Mitt Romney. Who would you
vote for?
Michele Bachmann ………………………………….. 8%
Haley Barbour…………………………………………. 3%
Newt Gingrich …………………………………………. 17%
Ron Paul ………………………………………………… 18%
Tim Pawlenty ………………………………………….. 5%
Mitt Romney……………………………………………. 40%
Someone else/Undecided…………………………. 10%
Q19 What if Rudy Giuliani ran for President and the
candidates were Michele Bachmann, Newt
Gingrich, Rudy Giuliani, Mike Huckabee, Sarah
Palin, Ron Paul, Tim Pawlenty, and Mitt
Romney. Who would you vote for?
Michele Bachmann ………………………………….. 5%
Newt Gingrich …………………………………………. 11%
Rudy Giuliani ………………………………………….. 17%
Mike Huckabee ……………………………………….. 12%
Sarah Palin …………………………………………….. 6%
Ron Paul ………………………………………………… 9%
Tim Pawlenty ………………………………………….. 5%
Mitt Romney……………………………………………. 29%
Someone else/Undecided…………………………. 7%
Q20 Here’s one last scenario: what if Donald Trump
ran for President and the candidates were
Michele Bachmann, Newt Gingrich, Mike
Huckabee, Sarah Palin, Ron Paul, Tim
Pawlenty, Mitt Romney, and Donald Trump.
Who would you vote for?
Michele Bachmann ………………………………….. 3%
Newt Gingrich …………………………………………. 12%
Mike Huckabee ……………………………………….. 12%
Sarah Palin …………………………………………….. 7%
Ron Paul ………………………………………………… 9%
Tim Pawlenty ………………………………………….. 4%
Mitt Romney……………………………………………. 27%
Donald Trump …………………………………………. 21%
Someone else/Undecided…………………………. 7%
Q21 Do you consider yourself to be a member of
the Tea Party?
Yes………………………………………………………… 30%
No …………………………………………………………. 51%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 19%
Q22 Do you think Barack Obama was born in the
United States?
Yes………………………………………………………… 35%
No …………………………………………………………. 42%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 23%
Q23 Would you be willing to vote for someone who
supported a bill at the state level mandating
that voters have health insurance for
President?
Would be willing………………………………………. 14%
Would not be willing…………………………………. 61%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 25%
Q24 Would you describe yourself as very liberal,
somewhat liberal, moderate, somewhat
conservative, or very conservative?
Very liberal ……………………………………………… 1%
Somewhat liberal …………………………………….. 3%
Moderate………………………………………………… 22%
Somewhat conservative……………………………. 43%
Very conservative ……………………………………. 31%
Q25 If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2.
Woman ………………………………………………….. 50%
Man……………………………………………………….. 50%
Q26 If you are a Democrat, press 1. If a
Republican, press 2. If you are an independent
or identify with another party, press 3.
Democrat ……………………………………………….. 2%
Republican……………………………………………… 67%
Independent/Other…………………………………… 32%
Q27 If you are 18 to 29 years old, press 1. If 30 to
45, press 2. If 46 to 65, press 3. If you are
older than 65, press 4.
18 to 29………………………………………………….. 4%
30 to 45………………………………………………….. 28%
46 to 65………………………………………………….. 44%
Older than 65………………………………………….. 24%
