Raleigh, N.C. – Things have just generally soured for Democrats in Iowa over the last two months. PPP showed President Obama in a considerably worse position last week than the last time the state was polled in May. Now Senator Tom Harkin has seen his approval rating slip, and Republicans have taken a lead in the generic state legislative ballot.
Voters break even on Harkin. 42% approve and 41% disapprove of his job performance. Those figures are not as bad as a lot of politicians are facing in this political climate, but they are down five points on the margin from 45-39 in the previous survey. His decline has come with voters of both parties and with independents. Senior colleague Chuck Grassley remains in an almost identical position as last month (50-34).
44% now favor the unnamed Republican legislative candidate in their district, with 42% opting for the Democrat. This is a close margin, but Democrats were preferred by five points (44-39) in May. Democrats have slipped a few points with their own party’s voters, but most of the switch has come from Republicans taking 13 points of previously undecided independents.
Voters are split on whether the state should comply with the one major aspect of Obamacare which was partially struck down by the Supreme Court. There is less pressure for states to expand their Medicaid rolls now because Congress cannot penalize previously promised matching funds. 42% of Iowans think their legislature should go forward with the expansion, while the same amount think they should not. Predictably, Democrats and Republicans are polarized. Independents prefer by a 45-38 margin that the state not expand Medicaid because of cost concerns.
Iowa is not a particularly urban place, but Hawkeye voters generally love all their cities. The only exception is Waterloo, which was seen favorably by 31% and unfavorably by 32%. The most popular of nine PPP asked about was Ames (64-10). That is followed by Des Moines (61-12), Iowa City (63-16), Dubuque (54-11), Cedar Rapids (51-17), Davenport (40-16), Council Bluffs (36-16), and Sioux City (35-16).
PPP surveyed 1,131 Iowa voters from July 12th to 15th. The margin of error for the survey is +/-2.9%. This poll was not paid for or authorized by any campaign or political organization. PPP surveys are conducted through automated telephone interviews.
Topline results are below. Full results, including crosstabs, can be found here.
Q1 Do you approve or disapprove of Senator
Charles Grassley’s job performance?
Approve …………….. .50%
Disapprove…………. .34%
Not sure …………….. .16%
Q2 Do you approve or disapprove of Senator Tom
Harkin’s job performance?
Approve …………….. .42%
Disapprove…………. .41%
Not sure …………….. .17%
Q3 If there was an election for the state legislature
today, would you vote Democratic or
Republican?
Democratic……………………………………………… 42%
Republican……………………………………………… 44%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 15%
Q4 Which of the following statements do you agree
with more: “Iowa should expand Medicaid to
cover approximately 150,000 more people who
otherwise would go without health insurance,”
or “Iowa should reject the Medicaid expansion
because we can’t rely on the federal
government to keep its promise to cover almost
all the cost.”
Iowa should expand Medicaid……………………. 42%
Iowa should reject the Medicaid expansion …. 42%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 16%
Q5 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of the city of Des Moines?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 61%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 12%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 26%
Q6 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of the city of Cedar Rapids?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 51%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 17%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 32%
Q7 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of the city of Davenport?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 40%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 16%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 45%
Q8 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of the city of Sioux City?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 35%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 16%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 49%
Q9 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of the city of Waterloo?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 31%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 32%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 38%
Q10 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of the city of Iowa City?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 63%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 16%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 21%
Q11 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of the city of Council Bluffs?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 36%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 16%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 48%
Q12 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of the city of Ames?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 64%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 10%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 26%
Q13 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of the city of Dubuque?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 54%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 11%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 35%
Q14 Who did you vote for President in 2008?
John McCain…………………………………………… 39%
Barack Obama………………………………………… 48%
Someone else/Don’t remember …………………. 13%
Q15 Would you describe yourself as very liberal,
somewhat liberal, moderate, somewhat
conservative, or very conservative?
Very liberal ……………………………………………… 7%
Somewhat liberal …………………………………….. 18%
Moderate………………………………………………… 33%
Somewhat conservative……………………………. 24%
Very conservative ……………………………………. 18%
Q16 If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2.
Woman ………………………………………………….. 49%
Man……………………………………………………….. 51%
Q17 If you are a Democrat, press 1. If a Republican,
press 2. If you are an independent or identify
with another party, press 3.
Democrat ……………………………………………….. 35%
Republican……………………………………………… 34%
Independent/Other…………………………………… 30%
Q18 If you are white, press 1. If other, press 2.
White …………………………………………………….. 90%
Other……………………………………………………… 10%
Q19 If you are 18 to 29 years old, press 1. If 30 to
45, press 2. If 46 to 65, press 3. If you are
older than 65, press 4.
18 to 29………………………………………………….. 15%
30 to 45………………………………………………….. 22%
46 to 65………………………………………………….. 43%
Older than 65………………………………………….. 20%
