Raleigh, N.C.– PPP’s newest Alaska poll finds toss up races for both the US Senate and Governor. Dan Sullivan leads Mark Begich 43/41 for the Senate, with minor candidates combining for 5%. Bill Walker leads incumbent Sean Parnell 42/41 for Governor, with minor candidates combining for 5% in that race as well.
Sullivan has gained 6 points since our last poll in early August, while Begich has dropped 2. Sullivan’s gain has come largely due to consolidating his support among Republican leaning voters since winning the primary last month. He now leads 75/9 among folks who voted for Mitt Romney in 2012, compared to 70/11 on the last survey. Sullivan’s seen significant improvement in his image as conservative voters have rallied around him too- his net favorability is up 10 points from -8 at 35/43 last month to now +2 at 44/42. Begich’s approval is a 42/51 spread.
Making life more difficult for Begich is Barack Obama’s continued unpopularity in the state- only 40% of voters approve of the job he’s doing to 56% who disapprove. Nevertheless the contest remains very much in the toss up zone.
In the race for Governor the fusion ticket of independent Bill Walker and Democrat Byron Mallott has made it a race. Incumbent Sean Parnell is slightly unpopular, with 42% of voters approving of the job he’s doing to 46% who disapprove. Meanwhile Walker is well liked among voters who are familiar with him- 40% have a favorable opinion to 23% with an unfavorable one. Walker leads 44/33 with independents, and he is getting 22% of the Republican vote to Parnell’s 14% of the Democratic vote. Supporters of the minor candidates in the race say they would choose Walker over Parnell 68/19 if they had to choose between the two, and when you reallocate their support Walker’s advantage grows to 45/41.
“Alaska’s going to keep political watchers up late on election night,” said Dean Debnam, President of Public Policy Polling. “It looks like there will be a lot of intrigue in both of the state’s key races.”
PPP surveyed 880 likely voters from September 18th to 21st. The margin of error is +/-. 80% of interviews for the poll were conducted over the phone with 20% interviewed over the internet to reach respondents who don’t have landline telephones.
Topline results are below. Full results, including crosstabs, can be found here.
Q1 Do you approve or disapprove of President
Barack Obama’s job performance?
Approve …………………………………………………. 40%
Disapprove……………………………………………… 56%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 4%
Q2 Do you approve or disapprove of Senator Mark
Begich’s job performance?
Approve …………………………………………………. 42%
Disapprove……………………………………………… 51%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 7%
Q3 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Dan Sullivan?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 44%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 42%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 14%
Q4 The candidates for U.S. Senate are Democrat
Mark Begich, Republican Dan Sullivan,
Libertarian Mark Fish, and non-affiliated
candidate Ted Gianoutsos. If the election was
today, who would you vote for?
Mark Begich……………………………………………. 41%
Dan Sullivan……………………………………………. 43%
Mark Fish……………………………………………….. 3%
Ted Gianoutsos……………………………………….. 2%
Undecided………………………………………………. 11%
Q5 Combined horse race, with third-party
supporters asked if they lean Begich or
Sullivan
Mark Begich……………………………………………. 42%
Dan Sullivan……………………………………………. 45%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 13%
Q6 Do you approve or disapprove of Governor
Sean Parnell’s job performance?
Approve …………………………………………………. 42%
Disapprove……………………………………………… 46%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 12%
Q7 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Bill Walker?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 40%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 23%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 37%
Q8 The candidates for Governor this fall are
Republican Sean Parnell, non-affiliated
candidate Bill Walker, Libertarian Carolyn Clift,
and Alaska Constitution Party Candidate J.R.
Myers. If the election was today, who would
you vote for?
Sean Parnell …………………………………………… 41%
Bill Walker………………………………………………. 42%
Carolyn Clift ……………………………………………. 3%
J.R. Myers………………………………………………. 2%
Undecided………………………………………………. 13%
Q9 Combined horse race, with third-party
supporters asked if they lean Parnell or Walker
Sean Parnell …………………………………………… 41%
Bill Walker………………………………………………. 45%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 14%
Q10 Do you approve or disapprove of
Congressman Don Young’s job performance?
Approve …………………………………………………. 49%
Disapprove……………………………………………… 40%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 11%
Q11 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Forrest Dunbar?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 23%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 17%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 60%
Q12 The candidates for U.S. House this fall are
Republican Don Young, Democrat Forrest
Dunbar, and Libertarian Jim McDermott. If the
election was today, who would you vote for?
Don Young ……………………………………………… 48%
Forrest Dunbar………………………………………… 33%
Jim McDermott………………………………………… 9%
Undecided………………………………………………. 11%
Q13 Ballot Measure 3 is an act to increase Alaska’s
minimum wage. It would raise Alaska’s
minimum wage from $7.75 per hour to $8.75
per hour in 2015 and $9.75 per hour in 2016.
After that, the minimum wage would be
adjusted each year for inflation, with Alaska’s
minimum wage always remaining one dollar
over the federal minimum. If the election was
today, would you vote ‘yes’ or ‘no’ on this
measure?
Yes………………………………………………………… 61%
No …………………………………………………………. 33%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 5%
Q14 Do you approve or disapprove of Senator Lisa
Murkowski’s job performance?
Approve …………………………………………………. 46%
Disapprove……………………………………………… 39%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 15%
Q15 If the candidates for President next time were
Democrat Hillary Clinton and Republican Jeb
Bush, who would you vote for?
Hillary Clinton………………………………………….. 39%
Jeb Bush………………………………………………… 44%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 17%
Q16 If the candidates for President next time were
Democrat Hillary Clinton and Republican Chris
Christie, who would you vote for?
Hillary Clinton………………………………………….. 36%
Chris Christie ………………………………………….. 46%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 18%
Q17 If the candidates for President next time were
Democrat Hillary Clinton and Republican Ted
Cruz, who would you vote for?
Hillary Clinton………………………………………….. 39%
Ted Cruz ………………………………………………… 46%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 15%
Q18 If the candidates for President next time were
Democrat Hillary Clinton and Republican Mike
Huckabee, who would you vote for?
Hillary Clinton………………………………………….. 40%
Mike Huckabee ……………………………………….. 44%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 17%
Q19 If the candidates for President next time were
Democrat Hillary Clinton and Republican Sarah
Palin, who would you vote for?
Hillary Clinton………………………………………….. 44%
Sarah Palin …………………………………………….. 38%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 19%
Q20 If the candidates for President next time were
Democrat Hillary Clinton and Republican Rand
Paul, who would you vote for?
Hillary Clinton………………………………………….. 40%
Rand Paul ………………………………………………. 45%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 15%
Q21 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Sarah Palin?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 32%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 54%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 14%
Q22 Do you think Sarah Palin should run for
President in 2016, or not?
Think she should run………………………………… 18%
Think she should not………………………………… 75%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 7%
Q23 Who do you think were the instigators of the
brawl between the Palins and another family at
a recent party: the Palins or the other parties
involved?
The Palins………………………………………………. 30%
The other parties involved…………………………. 18%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 52%
Q24 In the last presidential election, did you vote for
Barack Obama or Mitt Romney?
Barack Obama………………………………………… 40%
Mitt Romney……………………………………………. 51%
Someone else / Don’t remember ……………….. 9%
Q25 Would you describe yourself as very liberal,
somewhat liberal, moderate, somewhat
conservative, or very conservative?
Very liberal ……………………………………………… 7%
Somewhat liberal …………………………………….. 15%
Moderate………………………………………………… 33%
Somewhat conservative……………………………. 28%
Very conservative ……………………………………. 17%
Q26 If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2.
Woman ………………………………………………….. 50%
Man……………………………………………………….. 50%
Q27 If you are a Democrat, press 1. If a Republican,
press 2. If you are an independent or identify
with another party, press 3.
Democrat ……………………………………………….. 16%
Republican……………………………………………… 28%
Independent / Other…………………………………. 56%
Q28 If you are white, press 1. If other, press 2.
White …………………………………………………….. 79%
Other……………………………………………………… 21%
Q29 If you are 18 to 45 years old, press 1. If 46 to
65, press 2. If you are older than 65, press 3.
18 to 45………………………………………………….. 36%
46 to 65………………………………………………….. 44%
Older than 65………………………………………….. 20%
Q30 Mode
Phone ……………………………………………………. 80%
Internet ………………………………………………….. 20%
