Raleigh, N.C. – It looks like the race to watch in Mississippi on Tuesday night will be the state’s proposed ‘Personhood Amendment,’ which would make the state’s laws regarding abortion and birth control the strictest of any state in the country. Right now it looks like it could go either way, with 45% of voters supporting the amendment and 44% opposed.
Men (48-42), whites (54-37), and Republicans (65-28) support the proposal. But women (42-46), African Americans (26-59), Democrats (23-61), and independents (35-51) oppose it. The good news for those opposed to the amendment is that 11% of voters are undecided and their demographics are 58% women, 54% Democratic, and 42% black- those still on the fence disproportionately belong to voter groups that oppose the amendment. That suggests when those folks make up their minds the proposal could be narrowly defeated.
“The groups trying to defeat the proposed Personhood amendment in Mississippi have had momentum on their side over the last few weeks,” said Dean Debnam, President of Public Policy Polling. “There is a very real chance now that the proposal will be defeated.”
There should be less suspense in the Gubernatorial race. Republican Phil Bryant leads his Democratic opponent Johnny DuPree by 14 points, 54-40. The race is incredibly polarized along racial lines with Bryant up 74-20 with whites, while DuPree has an 80-11 advantage with African Americans. It’s an unusual contest for this highly negative political climate in that voters have a positive opinion of both candidates: Bryant’s favorability is 54/25 and DuPree’s is 46/27. We don’t see that very often.
The decisive factor in this race may be Haley Barbour. His 60/29 approval rating represents the best numbers we’ve found for any Governor in the country this year.
PPP surveyed 796 likely voters from November 4th to 6th. The margin of error for the survey is +/-3.5%. This poll was not paid for or authorized by any campaign or political organization. PPP surveys are conducted through automated telephone interviews. PPP is a Democratic polling company, but polling expert Nate Silver of the New York Times found that its surveys in 2010 actually exhibited a slight bias toward Republican candidates.
Topline results are below. Full results, including crosstabs, can be found here.
Q1 The candidates for Governor are Republican
Phil Bryant and Democrat Johnny DuPree. If
the election was today, who would you vote
for?
Phil Bryant ……………………………………………… 54%
Johnny DuPree ……………………………………….. 40%
Undecided………………………………………………. 6%
Q2 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Phil Bryant?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 54%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 25%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 21%
Q3 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Johnny DuPree?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 46%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 27%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 27%
Q4 Do you approve or disapprove of Governor
Haley Barbour’s job performance?
Approve…………….. 60%
Disapprove………… 29%
Not sure ……………. 11%
Q5 The candidates for Attorney General are
Democrat Jim Hood and Republican Steve
Simpson. If the election was today, who would
you vote for?
Democrat Jim Hood …………………………………. 52%
Republican Steve Simpson……………………….. 39%
Undecided………………………………………………. 9%
Q6 The candidates for State Treasurer are
Republican Lynn Fitch, Democrat Connie
Moran, and Reform Party candidate Shawn
O’Hara. If the election was today, who would
you vote for?
Republican Lynn Fitch ……………………………… 54%
Democrat Connie Moran…………………………… 35%
Reform Party candidate Shawn O’Hara ………. 4%
Undecided………………………………………………. 6%
Q7 Initiative 26 would define the term “person” to
include every human being from the moment of
fertilization, cloning, or the equivalent thereof. If
the election was today, would you vote yes or
no on Initiative 26?
Yes………………………………………………………… 45%
No …………………………………………………………. 44%
Undecided………………………………………………. 11%
Q8 Initiative 27 would amend the Mississippi
constitution to require a person to submit
government-issued photo identification in order
to vote. If the election was today, would you
vote yes or no on Initiative 27?
Yes………………………………………………………… 64%
No …………………………………………………………. 29%
Undecided………………………………………………. 7%
Q9 Initiative 28 would prohibit the government from
taking private property by eminent domain and
transferring it to other person. If the election
was today, would you vote yes or no on
Initiative 28?
Yes………………………………………………………… 51%
No …………………………………………………………. 39%
Undecided………………………………………………. 10%
Q10 Generally speaking, are you planning to vote
for Democratic or Republican candidates for
the Legislature on Tuesday?
Democrats ……………………………………………… 38%
Republicans ……………………………………………. 49%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 13%
Q11 If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2.
Woman ………………………………………………….. 54%
Man……………………………………………………….. 46%
Q12 If you are white, press 1. If African-American,
press 2. If other, press 3.
White …………………………………………………….. 66%
African-American …………………………………….. 30%
Other……………………………………………………… 3%
Q13 If you are 18 to 29 years old, press 1. If 30 to
45, press 2. If 46 to 65, press 3. If you are
older than 65, press 4.
18 to 29………………………………………………….. 16%
30 to 45………………………………………………….. 22%
46 to 65………………………………………………….. 37%
Older than 65………………………………………….. 25%
Q14 If you are a Democrat, press 1. If a Republican,
press 2. If you are an independent or identify
with another party, press 3.
Democrat ……………………………………………….. 39%
Republican……………………………………………… 47%
Independent/Other…………………………………… 14%
Q15 Who did you vote for President in 2008?
John McCain…………………………………………… 54%
Barack Obama………………………………………… 40%
Someone else/Don’t remember …………………. 6%
Q16 Would you describe yourself as very liberal,
somewhat liberal, moderate, somewhat
conservative, or very conservative?
Very liberal ……………………………………………… 12%
Somewhat liberal …………………………………….. 10%
Moderate………………………………………………… 21%
Somewhat conservative……………………………. 25%
Very conservative ……………………………………. 32%