Raleigh, N.C. – Presumed Wisconsin Democratic Senate nominee, Rep. Tammy Baldwin, has made up ground against her potential opponents since PPP last polled the race last October. She is now pretty much running even with Republican frontrunner Tommy Thompson.
Baldwin has improved three points against Thompson, from trailing 44-46 in the previous poll to leading 46-45 now; five points against former Rep. Mark Neumann, from a 44-43 lead to 47-41; and four points versus State House Speaker Jeff Fitzgerald, from a 44-40 lead to a 47-39 one. The two parties are polarized in all three match-ups, but Baldwin trumps by taking six- to 18-point leads with the huge 36% plurality who say they are independents. This is a reversal from the previous poll, when the three Republicans led by one to 13 points with unaffiliated voters.
Thompson still has by far the highest name identification. Only 16% have no opinion of their former governor, and those who do break down roughly evenly—41% favorably and 42% unfavorably, almost unchanged from October (42-42). Baldwin is the next best known, and has slightly upped her image from 28-30 to 31-31, putting her on par personally with Thompson, though 38% are not yet sure how they feel about her.
By a 47-37 margin, the state’s Republican faithful would still prefer someone more conservative than Thompson as their standard-bearer, but his name recognition at this point dictates that he still leads a three-way match-up 39-22-22 over Fitzgerald and Neumann, and tops them each head-to-head by nine or ten points.
“The Wisconsin Senate race looks like a toss up,” said Dean Debnam, President of Public Policy Polling. “Democrats are united behind Tammy Baldwin and Republicans are united behind Tommy Thompson, making this one of those contests that really will be determined by independents.”
PPP surveyed 900 Wisconsin voters, as well as an oversample of 556 usual Republican primary voters, from February 23rd to 26th. The margin of error for the entire survey is +/-3.3%, and +/-4.2% for the primary sample. This poll was not paid for or authorized by any campaign or political organization. PPP surveys are conducted through automated telephone interviews. PPP is a Democratic polling company, but polling expert Nate Silver of the New York Times found that its surveys in 2010 actually exhibited a slight bias toward Republican candidates.
Topline results are below. Full results, including crosstabs, can be found here.
Q1 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Tammy Baldwin?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 31%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 31%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 38%
Q2 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Jeff Fitzgerald?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 19%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 38%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 42%
Q3 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Mark Neumann?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 23%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 34%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 43%
Q4 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Tommy Thompson?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 41%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 42%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 16%
Q5 If the candidates for US Senate this fall were
Democrat Tammy Baldwin and Republican Jeff
Fitzgerald, who would you vote for?
Tammy Baldwin……………………………………….. 47%
Jeff Fitzgerald …………………………………………. 39%
Undecided………………………………………………. 14%
Q6 If the candidates for US Senate this fall were
Democrat Tammy Baldwin and Republican
Mark Neumann, who would you vote for?
Tammy Baldwin……………………………………….. 47%
Mark Neumann ……………………………………….. 41%
Undecided………………………………………………. 12%
Q7 If the candidates for US Senate this fall were
Democrat Tammy Baldwin and Republican
Tommy Thompson, who would you vote for?
Tammy Baldwin……………………………………….. 46%
Tommy Thompson …………………………………… 45%
Undecided………………………………………………. 9%
Q8 Who did you vote for President in 2008?
John McCain…………………………………………… 40%
Barack Obama………………………………………… 52%
Someone else/Don’t remember …………………. 8%
Q9 Would you describe yourself as very liberal,
somewhat liberal, moderate, somewhat
conservative, or very conservative?
Very liberal ……………………………………………… 10%
Somewhat liberal …………………………………….. 19%
Moderate………………………………………………… 31%
Somewhat conservative……………………………. 25%
Very conservative ……………………………………. 15%
Q10 If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2.
Woman ………………………………………………….. 54%
Man……………………………………………………….. 46%
Q11 If you are a Democrat, press 1. If a Republican,
press 2. If you are an independent or identify
with another party, press 3.
Democrat ……………………………………………….. 33%
Republican……………………………………………… 31%
Independent/Other…………………………………… 36%
Q12 If you are white, press 1. If other, press 2.
White …………………………………………………….. 90%
Other……………………………………………………… 10%
Q13 If you are 18 to 29 years old, press 1. If 30 to
45, press 2. If 46 to 65, press 3. If you are
older than 65, press 4.
18 to 29………………………………………………….. 10%
30 to 45………………………………………………….. 28%
46 to 65………………………………………………….. 42%
Older than 65………………………………………….. 20%
Q14 Are you or is anyone in your household a
member of a labor union?
Yes………………………………………………………… 29%
No …………………………………………………………. 71%
