Raleigh, N.C. – In PPP’s previous survey of the Pennsylvania Senate race in June, Republican Pat Toomey and Democrat Joe Sestak were dead even at 41% among occasional voters. In the first survey using its likely-voter model, however, PPP now finds Toomey jumping out to a 9-point lead, 45-36, with 20% still undecided.
The likely 2010 electorate reports voting for John McCain by 1 point over Barack Obama, as opposed to Obama’s actual 10-point victory. But that does not explain the difference between this poll and the June results, which also showed a one-point McCain advantage. This electorate is simply more conservative, and there are more Republicans and fewer Democrats than in the overall registered electorate. Those Democrats who do intend to vote are less favorable toward Obama, and more of them remain undecided in the horse race than before. In an electorate with a 50-42 Democratic identification edge, Sestak maintained parity with Toomey by getting almost as much of his party’s support as Toomey pulled of his, despite a 41-21 Toomey advantage with the small set of independents. But with only a two-point Democratic advantage, Sestak gets only 64% of Democrats to Toomey’s 74% of Republicans, and Toomey’s support among unaffiliateds is now a majority, 50-23. Sestak also now has a net-negative favorability rating by 10 points, after breaking even in June, while Toomey keeps a barely positive mark.
Arlen Specter, a recently converted Democrat but longtime Republican, may not have as clear a drag on Sestak’s chances as other unpopular retiring incumbents do on their party’s nominees, and Sestak did separate himself from Specter in a nasty primary challenge. But Specter is one of the least popular senators PPP has polled on in 2010.
“This race is suddenly looking less a toss-up than previously, and while Democrats have a large registration advantage, they are simply looking less inclined to vote than are Republicans, and the state’s poor economy is surely having an effect on the incumbent party,” said Dean Debnam, President of Public Policy Polling.
PPP surveyed 585 likely Pennsylvania voters from August 14th to 16th. The survey’s margin of error is +/-4.1%. Other factors, such as refusal to be interviewed and weighting, may introduce additional error that is more difficult to quantify.
If you would like an interview regarding this release, please contact Dean Debnam at (888) 621-6988 or 919-880-4888.
Topline results are below. Full results, including crosstabs, can be found here.
Q1 Do you approve or disapprove of President
Barack Obama’s job performance?
Approve …………………………………………………. 40%
Disapprove……………………………………………… 55%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 5%
Q2 Do you support or oppose President Obama’s
health care plan, or do you not have an
opinion?
Support ………………………………………………….. 39%
Oppose ………………………………………………….. 54%
No opinion………………………………………………. 7%
Q3 Do you approve or disapprove of Senator Arlen
Specter’s job performance?
Approve …………………………………………………. 27%
Disapprove……………………………………………… 57%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 16%
Q4 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Joe Sestak?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 28%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 38%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 34%
Q5 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Pat Toomey?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 36%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 33%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 31%
Q6 The candidates for US Senate this fall are
Democrat Joe Sestak and Republican Pat
Toomey. If the election was today, who would
you vote for?
Joe Sestak……………………………………………… 36%
Pat Toomey ……………………………………………. 45%
Undecided………………………………………………. 20%
Q7 Who did you vote for President in 2008?
John McCain…………………………………………… 47%
Barack Obama………………………………………… 46%
Someone else/Don’t remember …………………. 6%
Q8 Would you describe yourself as a liberal,
moderate, or conservative?
Liberal ……………………………………………………. 16%
Moderate………………………………………………… 39%
Conservative…………………………………………… 44%
Q9 If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2.
Woman ………………………………………………….. 54%
Man……………………………………………………….. 46%
Q10 If you are a Democrat, press 1. If a Republican,
press 2. If you are an independent or identify
with another party, press 3.
Democrat ……………………………………………….. 46%
Republican……………………………………………… 44%
Independent/Other…………………………………… 9%
Q11 If you are white, press 1. If African-American,
press 2. If other, press 3.
White …………………………………………………….. 85%
African-American …………………………………….. 12%
Other……………………………………………………… 3%
Q12 If you are 18 to 29 years old, press 1 now. If
you are 30 to 45, press 2. If you are 46 to 65,
press 3. If older, press 4.
18 to 29………………………………………………….. 9%
30 to 45………………………………………………….. 22%
46 to 65………………………………………………….. 44%
Older than 65………………………………………….. 24%
