Raleigh, N.C. – It seems both parties nominated their strongest candidates to go head-to-head for West Virginia governor last Saturday, particularly the Democrats. Acting Governor Earl Ray Tomblin and Republican businessman Bill Maloney will face off in the special election this fall to complete the last year of now Senator Joe Manchin’s term. Tomblin starts off with a 45-30 lead over Maloney, slightly closer than it would have been had the GOP nominated former Secretary of State Betty Ireland, who would have trailed 30-48.
Part of Maloney’s advantage over Ireland starting out is that while he has raised his name recognition significantly in recent weeks, from 31% with an opinion on him to 47%, he still is a known entity to less than half of voters, while 58% have an opinion on Ireland and two-thirds of Tomblin. Having won the primary, Maloney does better with Republicans than Ireland, but more Democrats and independents are undecided than in the matchups with Ireland.
Voters’ views of Tomblin’s job performance have declined since PPP last polled the state less than three weeks ago. Then, 49% approved and less than half that (24%) disapproved. That margin has falled to 40-27 in the heat of the primary campaign during which Tomblin faced competition from three major Democratic candidates.
That combined with voters’ increased awareness of Maloney has shrunk Tomblin’s lead over Maloney from a lofty 56-23 in the previous poll. But Tomblin still would start off in better shape than Natalie Tennant (40-33 lead over Maloney), Rick Thompson (37-34), or John Perdue (34-34).
“Earl Ray Tomblin certainly starts out as the favorite for the fall,” said Dean Debnam, President of Public Policy Polling. “But Bill Maloney already showed the ability to come from behind once and shouldn’t be taken lightly.”
PPP surveyed 723 West Virginia voters from May 11th to 12th. The margin of error for the survey is +/-3.6%. This poll was not paid for or authorized by any campaign or political organization. PPP surveys are conducted through automated telephone interviews. PPP is a Democratic polling company, but polling expert Nate Silver of the New York Times found that its surveys in 2010 actually exhibited a slight bias toward Republican candidates.
Topline results are below. Full results, including crosstabs, can be found here.
Q1 Do you approve or disapprove of Governor Earl
Ray Tomblin’s job performance?
Approve…………….. 40%
Disapprove………… 27%
Not sure ……………. 33%
Q2 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Betty Ireland?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 28%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 31%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 42%
Q3 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Bill Maloney?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 23%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 24%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 53%
Q4 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of John Perdue?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 24%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 31%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 45%
Q5 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Natalie Tennant?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 33%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 30%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 37%
Q6 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Rick Thompson?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 29%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 29%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 43%
Q7 If the candidates for Governor this year were
Democrat Earl Ray Tomblin and Republican Bill
Maloney, who would you vote for?
Earl Ray Tomblin……………………………………… 45%
Bill Maloney ……………………………………………. 30%
Undecided………………………………………………. 25%
Q8 If the candidates for Governor this year were
Democrat Earl Ray Tomblin and Republican
Betty Ireland, who would you vote for?
Earl Ray Tomblin……………………………………… 48%
Betty Ireland……………………………………………. 30%
Undecided………………………………………………. 22%
Q9 If the candidates for Governor this year were
Democrat John Perdue and Republican Bill
Maloney, who would you vote for?
John Perdue …………………………………………… 34%
Bill Maloney ……………………………………………. 34%
Undecided………………………………………………. 31%
Q10 If the candidates for Governor this year were
Democrat John Perdue and Republican Betty
Ireland, who would you vote for?
John Perdue …………………………………………… 37%
Betty Ireland……………………………………………. 34%
Undecided………………………………………………. 29%
Q11 If the candidates for Governor this year were
Democrat Natalie Tennant and Republican Bill
Maloney, who would you vote for?
Natalie Tennant……………………………………….. 40%
Bill Maloney ……………………………………………. 33%
Undecided………………………………………………. 26%
Q12 If the candidates for Governor this year were
Democrat Natalie Tennant and Republican
Betty Ireland, who would you vote for?
Natalie Tennant……………………………………….. 42%
Betty Ireland……………………………………………. 32%
Undecided………………………………………………. 26%
Q13 If the candidates for Governor this year were
Democrat Rick Thompson and Republican Bill
Maloney, who would you vote for?
Rick Thompson……………………………………….. 37%
Bill Maloney ……………………………………………. 34%
Undecided………………………………………………. 29%
Q14 If the candidates for Governor this year were
Democrat Rick Thompson and Republican
Betty Ireland, who would you vote for?
Rick Thompson……………………………………….. 40%
Betty Ireland……………………………………………. 31%
Undecided………………………………………………. 29%
Q15 If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2.
Woman ………………………………………………….. 53%
Man……………………………………………………….. 47%
Q16 If you are 18 to 29 years old, press 1. If 30 to
45, press 2. If 46 to 65, press 3. If you are
older than 65, press 4.
18 to 29………………………………………………….. 14%
30 to 45………………………………………………….. 16%
46 to 65………………………………………………….. 40%
Older than 65………………………………………….. 30%
Q17 Would you describe yourself as very liberal,
somewhat liberal, moderate, somewhat
conservative, or very conservative?
Very liberal ……………………………………………… 9%
Somewhat liberal …………………………………….. 15%
Moderate………………………………………………… 23%
Somewhat conservative……………………………. 28%
Very conservative ……………………………………. 25%
Q18 Who did you vote for President in 2008?
John McCain…………………………………………… 48%
Barack Obama………………………………………… 36%
Someone else/Don’t remember …………………. 16%
Q19 If you are a Democrat, press 1. If a Republican,
press 2. If you are an independent or identify
with another party, press 3.
Democrat ……………………………………………….. 56%
Republican……………………………………………… 35%
Independent/Other…………………………………… 9%
Q20 If you are white, press 1. If other, press 2.
White …………………………………………………….. 94%
Other……………………………………………………… 6%