Raleigh, N.C. – While the Republican race for Governor of West Virginia has changed drastically over the last three weeks the Democratic contest has barely moved at all: Earl Ray Tomblin is headed for an easy nomination victory in his quest to remain as Governor. Tomblin’s polling at 33% to 20% for Rick Thompson, 17% for Natalie Tennant, 11% for John Perdue, 4% for Jeff Kessler, and 1% for Arne Moltis. 1% of voters remain undecided.
Tomblin’s likely to win because he has strong appeal to the diverse ideological factions of the state’s Democratic primary electorate. He’s strongest with the more conservative voters- a 24 point advantage over Thompson with ‘somewhat conservative’ voters and a 15 point lead over him with ‘very conservative’ voters. But he’s also winning the left, with a 15 point edge on Tennant with ‘somewhat liberal’ voters and a 7 point lead on Thompson with ‘very liberal’ voters.
While Tomblin’s likely to win the race, Thompson might be able to take credit for winning the campaign. When we first polled this race in January he was at only 6%. The 14 point gain in support he’s seen over the course of the last three months is the greatest of any candidate. Tomblin’s seen an 8 point increase in his support while Tennant and Perdue have actually lost voters over the course of the campaign, down 7 points and 5 points respectively from the first poll.
“Earl Ray Tomblin’s not going to get an overwhelming percentage of the vote on Saturday but he should still win comfortably,” said Dean Debnam, President of Public Policy Polling. “The opposition to him never united around a single opponent and his appeal to the different factions of the party has him in good shape not just to win the primary but also to win in the fall. Democrats will be nominating their strongest candidate this weekend.”
PPP surveyed 742 likely Democratic primary voters on May 11th and 12th. The margin of error for the survey is +/-3.6%. This poll was not paid for or authorized by any campaign or political organization. PPP surveys are conducted through automated telephone interviews. PPP is a Democratic polling company, but polling expert Nate Silver of the New York Times found that its surveys in 2010 actually exhibited a slight bias toward Republican candidates.
Topline results are below. Full results, including crosstabs, can be found here.
The Democratic candidates for Governor are
Jeff Kessler, Arne Moltis, John Perdue, Natalie
Tennant, Rick Thompson, and Earl Ray
Tomblin. If the primary was today, who would
you vote for?
Jeff Kessler …………………………………………….. 4%
Arne Moltis……………………………………………… 1%
John Perdue …………………………………………… 11%
Natalie Tennant……………………………………….. 17%
Rick Thompson……………………………………….. 20%
Earl Ray Tomblin……………………………………… 33%
Undecided………………………………………………. 12%
Q2 Do you approve or disapprove of Governor Earl
Ray Tomblin’s job performance?
Approve…………….. 49%
Disapprove………… 21%
Not sure ……………. 30%
Q3 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of John Perdue?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 27%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 33%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 40%
Q4 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Natalie Tennant?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 45%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 26%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 29%
Q5 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Rick Thompson?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 37%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 28%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 36%
Q6 If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2.
Woman ………………………………………………….. 56%
Man……………………………………………………….. 44%
Q7 If you are 18 to 29 years old, press 1. If 30 to
45, press 2. If 46 to 65, press 3. If you are
older than 65, press 4.
18 to 29………………………………………………….. 14%
30 to 45………………………………………………….. 16%
46 to 65………………………………………………….. 39%
Older than 65………………………………………….. 31%
Q8 Would you describe yourself as very liberal,
somewhat liberal, moderate, somewhat
conservative, or very conservative?
Very liberal ……………………………………………… 13%
Somewhat liberal …………………………………….. 21%
Moderate………………………………………………… 31%
Somewhat conservative……………………………. 23%
Very conservative ……………………………………. 13%
