Raleigh, N.C. – Former West Virginia Secretary of State Betty Ireland and acting Governor Earl Ray Tomblin have healthy, almost 2:1 leads in their respective primaries to face off for governor this fall.
In the Republican contest, Ireland has 31% support over businessman Bill Maloney’s 17%, with everyone else in single digits: State Sen. Clark Barnes and State Del. Mitch Carmichael at 8%, district attorney Mark Sorsaia at 4%, former State Del. Larry Faircloth and professor Ralph William Clark at 2%, and former Westover mayor Cliff Ellis at 1%.
The acting incumbent has an advantage in a crowded Democratic field. Tomblin leads with 32%, about the same as the next two candidates combined. Three candidates—State Treasurer John Perdue (17%), Secretary of State Natalie Tennant (16%), and State House Speaker Rick Thompson (15%)—are in a statistical tie for second. State Sen. Jeff Kessler (5%) and activist Arne Moltis (1%) bring up the rear. 14% are still undecided, with the primary less than three weeks away. Twice that many are undecided in the GOP race, more than enough to make a difference if they end up voting.
In the GOP presidential race, Donald Trump has catapulted to a tie for the lead with Mike Huckabee, each at 24%, with Sarah Palin at 13%, Mitt Romney at 11%, Newt Gingrich at 9%, Tim Pawlenty at 4%, and Ron Paul and Michele Bachmann at 3%. When PPP last polled the race in January, Huckabee led Palin, Gingrich, and Romney, 28-23-17-10, so Trump’s emergence has taken the greatest toll on Palin and Gingrich. Trump is the least liked of the candidates, and the main reason he is getting so much support is birtherism. Among the 53% who do not believe President Obama was born in the U.S., Trump tops Huckabee and Palin, 30-22-17, but among the 22% who do not buy into that theory, Huckabee leads 23-16-15 over Romney and Trump, with Palin in seventh at only 6%.
PPP surveyed 590 likely West Virginia Democratic primary voters, with a +/-4.0% margin of error, and 274 likely Republican primary voters, with a +/-5.9% margin of error, from April 21st to 24th. This poll was not paid for or authorized by any campaign or political organization. PPP surveys are conducted through automated telephone interviews. PPP is a Democratic polling company but polling expert Nate Silver of the New York Times found that its surveys in 2010 actually exhibited a slight bias toward Republican candidates.
Topline results are below. Full results, including crosstabs, can be found here.
Democratic primary results
Q1 The Democratic candidates for Governor are
Jeff Kessler, Arne Moltis, John Perdue, Natalie
Tennant, Rick Thompson, and Earl Ray
Tomblin. If the primary was today, who would
you vote for?
Jeff Kessler …………………………………………….. 5%
Arne Moltis……………………………………………… 1%
John Perdue …………………………………………… 17%
Natalie Tennant……………………………………….. 16%
Rick Thompson……………………………………….. 15%
Earl Ray Tomblin……………………………………… 32%
Undecided………………………………………………. 14%
Q2 Do you approve or disapprove of Governor Earl
Ray Tomblin’s job performance?
Approve…………….. 58%
Disapprove………… 19%
Not sure ……………. 24%
Q3 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of John Perdue?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 32%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 26%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 42%
Q4 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Natalie Tennant?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 43%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 26%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 31%
Q5 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Rick Thompson?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 32%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 23%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 46%
Q6 Do you approve or disapprove of Barack
Obama’s job performance?
Approve…………….. 42%
Disapprove………… 46%
Not sure ……………. 12%
Q7 Who did you vote for President in 2008?
John McCain…………………………………………… 34%
Barack Obama………………………………………… 54%
Someone else/Don’t remember …………………. 12%
Q8 Would you describe yourself as very liberal,
somewhat liberal, moderate, somewhat
conservative, or very conservative?
Very liberal ……………………………………………… 15%
Somewhat liberal …………………………………….. 19%
Moderate………………………………………………… 37%
Somewhat conservative……………………………. 19%
Very conservative ……………………………………. 10%
Q9 If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2.
Woman ………………………………………………….. 58%
Man……………………………………………………….. 42%
Q10 If you are white, press 1. If other, press 2.
White …………………………………………………….. 95%
Other……………………………………………………… 5%
Q11 If you are 18 to 29 years old, press 1. If 30 to
45, press 2. If 46 to 65, press 3. If you are
older than 65, press 4.
18 to 29………………………………………………….. 14%
30 to 45………………………………………………….. 20%
46 to 65………………………………………………….. 40%
Older than 65………………………………………….. 26%
Republican primary results
Q1 The Republican candidates for Governor are
Clark Barnes, Mitch Carmichael, Ralph William
Clark, Cliff Ellis, Larry Faircloth, Betty Ireland,
Bill Maloney, and Mark Sorsaia. If the primary
was today, who would you vote for?
Clark Barnes …………………………………………… 8%
Mitch Carmichael …………………………………….. 8%
Ralph William Clark………………………………….. 2%
Cliff Ellis…………………………………………………. 1%
Larry Faircloth…………………………………………. 2%
Betty Ireland……………………………………………. 31%
Bill Maloney ……………………………………………. 17%
Mark Sorsaia…………………………………………… 4%
Undecided………………………………………………. 28%
Q2 If the Republican candidates for President in
2012 were Michele Bachmann, Newt Gingrich,
Mike Huckabee, Sarah Palin, Ron Paul, Tim
Pawlenty, Mitt Romney, and Donald Trump
who would you vote for?
Michele Bachmann ………………………………….. 3%
Newt Gingrich …………………………………………. 9%
Mike Huckabee ……………………………………….. 24%
Sarah Palin …………………………………………….. 13%
Ron Paul ………………………………………………… 3%
Tim Pawlenty ………………………………………….. 4%
Mitt Romney……………………………………………. 11%
Donald Trump …………………………………………. 24%
Someone else/Undecided…………………………. 9%
Q3 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Betty Ireland?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 47%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 15%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 38%
Q4 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Bill Maloney?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 27%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 11%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 62%
Q5 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Newt Gingrich?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 57%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 20%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 23%
Q6 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Mike Huckabee?
Favorable…………… .73%
Unfavorable ……….. .10%
Not sure …………….. .17%
Q7 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Sarah Palin?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 67%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 18%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 15%
Q8 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Mitt Romney?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 51%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 23%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 26%
Q9 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Donald Trump?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 47%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 33%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 20%
Q10 Do you think Barack Obama was born in the
United States?
Yes………………………………………………………… 22%
No …………………………………………………………. 53%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 26%
Q11 Would you describe yourself as very liberal,
somewhat liberal, moderate, somewhat
conservative, or very conservative?
Very liberal ……………………………………………… 2%
Somewhat liberal …………………………………….. 6%
Moderate………………………………………………… 18%
Somewhat conservative……………………………. 34%
Very conservative ……………………………………. 41%
Q12 If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2.
Woman ………………………………………………….. 51%
Man……………………………………………………….. 49%
Q13 If you are 18 to 29 years old, press 1. If 30 to
45, press 2. If 46 to 65, press 3. If you are
older than 65, press 4.
18 to 29………………………………………………….. 6%
30 to 45………………………………………………….. 24%
46 to 65………………………………………………….. 45%
Older than 65………………………………………….. 25%
