Raleigh, N.C. – Yesterday’s release showed acting Governor Earl Ray Tomblin in good shape to be nominated for another year in that office, and Betty Ireland as a less secure but still healthy favorite to face off against Tomblin this fall. If she gets that opportunity in two and a half weeks though, Ireland will face a much tougher battle ousting Tomblin in the general election, as PPP’s latest poll shows Tomblin or any other Democrat leading every Republican in early tests of the fall contest.
Based on his party’s huge 60-29 turnout edge over Republican voters, Tomblin leads Ireland by a whopping 51-29 margin, and would top the current second-place Republican, Bill Maloney, 56-23. Three other Democrats are locked in a battle for second place against Tomblin, but if they manage to catch fire heading into the vote, any one of them would best either Ireland or Maloney in the fall, albeit much more narrowly than would Tomblin. Natalie Tennant would beat Ireland, 39-33, and Maloney, 42-29. John Perdue edges Ireland, 37-32, and Maloney, 38-26. Rick Thompson noses ahead of Ireland, 38-35, and Maloney, 38-28. These are all better numbers for the Democrats than in PPP’s January poll of the state.
One of the reasons Tomblin performs so much better than the other Democrats is that he has been able to build up his name recognition over his few months in office. In January, 39% had no opinion on Tomblin, roughly the same as Tennant. That has now dropped to 27%, with 36% still not sure on Tennant. The candidate who has most upped his exposure is Thompson. Two-thirds could not express an opinion on him in the last poll, but only half are unsure now. The problem for him is that those who do have an opinion still split evenly, unlike Tomblin, who has a strong 49-24 job approval margin. Even Republicans approve, 39-33.
“West Virginia Governor is not looking like a very strong pick up opportunity for Republicans this fall,” said Dean Debnam, President of Public Policy Polling.
PPP surveyed 850 West Virginia voters from April 21st to 24th. The margin of error for the survey is +/-3.4%. This poll was not paid for or authorized by any campaign or political organization. PPP surveys are conducted through automated telephone interviews. PPP is a Democratic polling company but polling expert Nate Silver of the New York Times found that its surveys in 2010 actually exhibited a slight bias toward Republican candidates.
Topline results are below. Full results, including crosstabs, can be found here.
Q1 Do you approve or disapprove of Governor Earl
Ray Tomblin’s job performance?
Approve…………….. 49%
Disapprove………… 24%
Not sure ……………. 27%
Q2 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Betty Ireland?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 30%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 23%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 47%
Q3 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Bill Maloney?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 12%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 19%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 69%
Q4 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of John Perdue?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 27%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 27%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 46%
Q5 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Natalie Tennant?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 36%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 29%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 36%
Q6 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Rick Thompson?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 25%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 24%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 51%
Q7 If the candidates for Governor this year were
Democrat Earl Ray Tomblin and Republican Bill
Maloney, who would you vote for?
Earl Ray Tomblin……………………………………… 56%
Bill Maloney ……………………………………………. 23%
Undecided………………………………………………. 21%
Q8 If the candidates for Governor this year were
Democrat Earl Ray Tomblin and Republican
Betty Ireland, who would you vote for?
Earl Ray Tomblin……………………………………… 51%
Betty Ireland……………………………………………. 29%
Undecided………………………………………………. 20%
Q9 If the candidates for Governor this year were
Democrat John Perdue and Republican Bill
Maloney, who would you vote for?
John Perdue …………………………………………… 38%
Bill Maloney ……………………………………………. 26%
Undecided………………………………………………. 36%
Q10 If the candidates for Governor this year were
Democrat John Perdue and Republican Betty
Ireland, who would you vote for?
John Perdue …………………………………………… 37%
Betty Ireland……………………………………………. 32%
Undecided………………………………………………. 30%
Q11 If the candidates for Governor this year were
Democrat Natalie Tennant and Republican Bill
Maloney, who would you vote for?
Natalie Tennant……………………………………….. 42%
Bill Maloney ……………………………………………. 29%
Undecided………………………………………………. 30%
Q12 If the candidates for Governor this year were
Democrat Natalie Tennant and Republican
Betty Ireland, who would you vote for?
Natalie Tennant……………………………………….. 39%
Betty Ireland……………………………………………. 33%
Undecided………………………………………………. 28%
Q13 If the candidates for Governor this year were
Democrat Rick Thompson and Republican Bill
Maloney, who would you vote for?
Rick Thompson……………………………………….. 38%
Bill Maloney ……………………………………………. 28%
Undecided………………………………………………. 34%
Q14 If the candidates for Governor this year were
Democrat Rick Thompson and Republican
Betty Ireland, who would you vote for?
Rick Thompson……………………………………….. 38%
Betty Ireland……………………………………………. 35%
Undecided………………………………………………. 28%
Q15 Who did you vote for President in 2008?
John McCain…………………………………………… 51%
Barack Obama………………………………………… 38%
Someone else/Don’t remember …………………. 12%
Q16 Would you describe yourself as very liberal,
somewhat liberal, moderate, somewhat
conservative, or very conservative?
Very liberal ……………………………………………… 10%
Somewhat liberal …………………………………….. 15%
Moderate………………………………………………… 32%
Somewhat conservative……………………………. 24%
Very conservative ……………………………………. 18%
Q17 If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2.
Woman ………………………………………………….. 54%
Man……………………………………………………….. 46%
Q18 If you are a Democrat, press 1. If a Republican,
press 2. If you are an independent or identify
with another party, press 3.
Democrat ……………………………………………….. 60%
Republican……………………………………………… 29%
Independent/Other…………………………………… 10%
Q19 If you are white, press 1. If other, press 2.
White …………………………………………………….. 96%
Other……………………………………………………… 4%
Q20 If you are 18 to 29 years old, press 1. If 30 to
45, press 2. If 46 to 65, press 3. If you are
older than 65, press 4.
18 to 29………………………………………………….. 10%
30 to 45………………………………………………….. 20%
46 to 65………………………………………………….. 44%
Older than 65………………………………………….. 26%
