Polls

Tillis expands lead in primary, NC Senate race still looks like toss up

| Tom Jensen

Header-poll-results
Raleigh, N.C. –
For the first time in our polling of the North Carolina Senate race, presumptive frontrunner Thom Tillis has opened a little bit of space between himself and the rest of his opponents in the Republican primary. Tillis now leads the field with 19% to 11% for Greg Brannon and Heather Grant, 8% for Mark Harris, and 7% for Bill Flynn. Tillis has gained 6 points from his 13% standing a month ago, while Harris has declined by 4 points from the 12% he had previously. Everyone else has more or less stayed in place.

The name recognition Tillis gained by being the first candidate to run tv ads probably helped drive his increased support this month. 46% of Republican primary voters are familiar with Tillis, compared to less than 30% for everyone else in the field. Tillis is now leading in every region of the state except the Triad, where Flynn is well known from a long radio career.

Despite Tillis’ increased support this primary would still be headed to a runoff if the election was today. If the undecided voters broke proportionately to their current candidate preferences it would only be enough to get Tillis to 34%, well short of the 40% needed in North Carolina to win the primary outright.

The general election picture has entered into a holding pattern over the last three months, with Kay Hagan trailing her potential Republican opponents by small margins as she continues to suffer from poor approval ratings. 39% of voters in the state say they approve of the job Hagan is doing to 49% who disapprove. She has 1 or 2 point deficits against each of her potential GOP foes. She’s down by 1 to Heather Grant (42/41) and Thom Tillis (43/42), and trails by 2 against the rest of the field (43/41 against Greg Brannon and Mark Harris, 44/42 against Bill Flynn.)

“The North Carolina Senate race continues to look like a toss up,” said Dean Debnam, President of Public Policy Polling. “It would help Kay Hagan if the electorate shifted its attention to something other than Obamacare.”

PPP surveyed 1,384 North Carolina voters, including 575 Republican primary voters, from January 9th-12th. The margin of error for the overall survey is +/- 2.6% and for the Republican primary part it’s +/-4.1%. 80% of interviews for the poll were conducted over the phone with 20% interviewed over the internet to reach respondents who don’t have landline telephones.

Topline results are below.  Full results, including crosstabs, can be found here.

General Election Toplines

Q1 Do you approve or disapprove of Senator Kay
Hagan’s job performance?
Approve …………………………………………………. 39%
Disapprove……………………………………………… 49%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 13%

Q2 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Greg Brannon?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 9%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 18%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 72%

Q3 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Bill Flynn?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 7%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 18%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 75%

Q4 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Heather Grant?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 9%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 16%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 76%

Q5 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Mark Harris?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 9%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 16%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 75%

Q6 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Thom Tillis?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 15%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 28%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 57%

Q7 If the candidates for Senate in 2014 were
Democrat Kay Hagan and Republican Greg
Brannon, who would you vote for?
Kay Hagan……………………………………………… 41%
Greg Brannon …………………………………………. 43%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 16%

Q8 If the candidates for Senate in 2014 were
Democrat Kay Hagan and Republican Bill
Flynn, who would you vote for?
Kay Hagan……………………………………………… 42%
Bill Flynn ………………………………………………… 44%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 15%

Q9 If the candidates for Senate in 2014 were
Democrat Kay Hagan and Republican Heather
Grant, who would you vote for?
Kay Hagan……………………………………………… 41%
Heather Grant …………………………………………. 42%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 17%

Q10 If the candidates for Senate in 2014 were
Democrat Kay Hagan and Republican Mark
Harris, who would you vote for?
Kay Hagan……………………………………………… 41%
Mark Harris …………………………………………….. 43%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 16%

Q11 If the candidates for Senate in 2014 were
Democrat Kay Hagan and Republican Thom
Tillis, who would you vote for?
Kay Hagan……………………………………………… 42%
Thom Tillis ……………………………………………… 43%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 15%

Q12 Do you approve or disapprove of the Affordable
Care Act?
Approve …………………………………………………. 38%
Disapprove……………………………………………… 48%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 13%

Q13 Do you think the implementation of the
Affordable Care Act so far has been very
successful, somewhat successful, somewhat
unsuccessful, very unsuccessful, or are you
not sure?
Very successful……………………………………….. 9%
Somewhat successful ………………………………. 23%
Somewhat unsuccessful …………………………… 17%
Very unsuccessful……………………………………. 44%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 7%

Q14 In the last presidential election, did you vote for
Barack Obama or Mitt Romney?
Barack Obama………………………………………… 47%
Mitt Romney……………………………………………. 47%
Someone else/Don’t remember …………………. 6%

Q15 Would you describe yourself as very liberal,
somewhat liberal, moderate, somewhat
conservative, or very conservative?
Very liberal ……………………………………………… 10%
Somewhat liberal …………………………………….. 16%
Moderate………………………………………………… 32%
Somewhat conservative……………………………. 25%
Very conservative ……………………………………. 17%

Q16 If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2.
Woman ………………………………………………….. 53%
Man……………………………………………………….. 47%

Q17 If you are a Democrat, press 1. If a Republican,
press 2. If you are an independent or identify
with another party, press 3.
Democrat ……………………………………………….. 43%
Republican……………………………………………… 33%
Independent/Other…………………………………… 23%

Q18 If you are white, press 1. If African-American,
press 2. If other, press 3.
White …………………………………………………….. 73%
African-American …………………………………….. 21%
Other……………………………………………………… 6%

Q19 If you are 18 to 29 years old, press 1. If 30 to
45, press 2. If 46 to 65, press 3. If you are 65
or older, press 4.
18 to 29………………………………………………….. 12%
30 to 45………………………………………………….. 26%
46 to 65………………………………………………….. 41%
Older than 65………………………………………….. 21%

Q20 Area Code
252………………………………………………………… 11%
336………………………………………………………… 18%
704………………………………………………………… 14%
828………………………………………………………… 12%
910………………………………………………………… 11%
919………………………………………………………… 15%
Internet ………………………………………………….. 20%

Q21 Mode
Phone ……………………………………………………. 80%
Internet ………………………………………………….. 20%

Republican Primary Toplines

Q1 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Greg Brannon?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 12%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 18%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 70%

Q2 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Bill Flynn?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 8%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 16%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 76%

Q3 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Heather Grant?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 6%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 17%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 76%

Q4 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Mark Harris?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 8%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 18%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 75%

Q5 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Thom Tillis?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 22%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 23%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 54%

Q6 Given the choices of Greg Brannon, Bill Flynn,
Heather Grant, Mark Harris, and Thom Tillis,
who would you most like to see as the
Republican candidate for Senate this fall?
Greg Brannon …………………………………………. 11%
Bill Flynn ………………………………………………… 7%
Heather Grant …………………………………………. 11%
Mark Harris …………………………………………….. 8%
Thom Tillis ……………………………………………… 19%
Someone else/Not sure ……………………………. 44%

Q7 Would you describe yourself as very liberal,
somewhat liberal, moderate, somewhat
conservative, or very conservative?
Very liberal ……………………………………………… 2%
Somewhat liberal …………………………………….. 4%
Moderate………………………………………………… 16%
Somewhat conservative……………………………. 40%
Very conservative ……………………………………. 38%

Q8 If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2.
Woman ………………………………………………….. 48%
Man……………………………………………………….. 52%

Q9 If you are 18 to 45 years old, press 1. If 46 to
65, press 2. If you are 65 or older, press 3.
18 to 45………………………………………………….. 32%
46 to 65………………………………………………….. 37%
Older than 65………………………………………….. 31%

Q10 Area Code
252………………………………………………………… 9%
336………………………………………………………… 20%
704………………………………………………………… 18%
828………………………………………………………… 14%
910………………………………………………………… 10%
919………………………………………………………… 14%
Internet ………………………………………………….. 14%

Q11 Mode
Phone ……………………………………………………. 86%
Internet ………………………………………………….. 14%

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