Raleigh, N.C. — PPP’s newest Republican Senate poll finds Thom Tillis breaking away from the pack and in a very strong position to avoid a runoff election: he’s at 46% to 20% for Greg Brannon, 11% for Mark Harris, 5% for Heather Grant, 3% for Jim Snyder, 2% for Edward Kryn and Ted Alexander, and 1% for Alex Bradshaw.
Tillis has a pretty thorough hold on every segment of the Republican primary electorate at this point- he polls at exactly 46% with moderates, ‘somewhat conservative,’ and ‘very conservative’ voters alike. He’s also over the critical 40% mark with men, women, voters in every age group, and voters in every region of the state. Even in the increasingly unlikely instance that the primary does head to a runoff, Tillis would start out with a pretty substantial advantage over either of his potential foes. In a hypothetical head to head he leads Brannon by 18 points at 50/32, and Harris by 26 points at 53/27.
Tillis’ overwhelming advantage on the airwaves has fueled his momentum in the stretch run of the campaign. 80% of likely primary voters report having seen his ads in the last few weeks, compared to only 28% for Brannon and 27% for Harris. When asked who they’ve seen the most ads for, 72% say Tillis to only 7% for Brannon and 6% for Harris.
Tillis is winning over a Republican primary electorate that across the board holds extremely conservative views on key issues. Only 33% of GOP primary voters believe in evolution to 58% who do not. Only 31% of GOP primary voters think Barack Obama was born in the United States to 52% who continue to fall into the Birther camp. Only 29% of GOP primary voters believe that climate change is a fact to 51% who do not. Only 27% of GOP primary voters think the US Education Department should continue to exist, compared to 60% who think it should be eliminated. Only 25% of GOP primary voters support the federal minimum wage to 57% who do not.
“Thom Tillis has taken the positions he needed to win over an extremely conservative Republican primary electorate,” said Dean Debnam, President of Public Policy Polling. “The question now is whether that will hurt him in the general election the same way it did for Mitt Romney in 2012.”
PPP surveyed 694 likely Republican primary voters from April 26th to 28th. The margin of error for the survey, which was conducted through automated telephone interviews, is +/-3.7%.
Topline results are below. Full results, including crosstabs, can be found here.
Q1 Do you plan to vote in the Republican or
Democratic primary for U.S. Senate?
Republican Primary………………………………….100%
Democratic Primary …………………………………. 0%
Not sure / Don’t plan to vote in a primary…….. 0%
Q2 The Republican candidates for U.S. Senate are
Thom Tillis, Jim Snyder, Edward Kryn, Mark
Harris, Heather Grant, Alex Bradshaw, Greg
Brannon, and Ted Alexander. If the election
was today, who would you vote for?
Thom Tillis ……………………………………………… 46%
Jim Snyder……………………………………………… 3%
Edward Kryn …………………………………………… 2%
Mark Harris …………………………………………….. 11%
Heather Grant …………………………………………. 5%
Alex Bradshaw………………………………………… 1%
Greg Brannon …………………………………………. 20%
Ted Alexander…………………………………………. 2%
Undecided………………………………………………. 12%
Q3 If there was a runoff election for the Republican
Senate nomination between Thom Tillis and
Greg Brannon, who would you vote for?
Thom Tillis ……………………………………………… 50%
Greg Brannon …………………………………………. 32%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 18%
Q4 If there was a runoff election for the Republican
Senate nomination between Thom Tillis and
Mark Harris, who would you vote for?
Thom Tillis ……………………………………………… 53%
Mark Harris …………………………………………….. 27%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 20%
Q5 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Thom Tillis?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 56%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 24%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 20%
Q6 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Jim Snyder?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 19%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 18%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 63%
Q7 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Edward Kryn?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 16%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 17%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 68%
Q8 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Mark Harris?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 41%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 15%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 44%
Q9 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Heather Grant?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 25%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 17%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 58%
Q10 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Alex Bradshaw?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 17%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 16%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 67%
Q11 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Greg Brannon?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 47%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 15%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 38%
Q12 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Ted Alexander?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 17%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 15%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 67%
Q13 Over the last few weeks, have you seen
television ads in support of Thom Tillis?
Yes………………………………………………………… 80%
No …………………………………………………………. 15%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 4%
Q14 Over the last few weeks, have you seen
television ads in support of Mark Harris?
Yes………………………………………………………… 27%
No …………………………………………………………. 58%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 14%
Q15 Over the last few weeks, have you seen
television ads in support of Greg Brannon?
Yes………………………………………………………… 28%
No …………………………………………………………. 58%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 14%
Q16 Given the choices of Thom Tillis, Mark Harris,
and Greg Brannon, who have you seen the
most televisions ads in support of?
Thom Tillis ……………………………………………… 72%
Mark Harris …………………………………………….. 6%
Greg Brannon …………………………………………. 7%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 16%
Q17 Over the last few weeks, have you seen
television ads in opposition to Thom Tillis?
Yes………………………………………………………… 65%
No …………………………………………………………. 22%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 12%
Q18 Do you believe that climate change is a fact?
Yes………………………………………………………… 29%
No …………………………………………………………. 51%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 20%
Q19 Do you support or oppose the federal minimum
wage?
Support ………………………………………………….. 25%
Oppose ………………………………………………….. 57%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 18%
Q20 Do you think the U.S. Education Department
should be eliminated, or not?
Think it should be…………………………………….. 60%
Think it should not be……………………………….. 27%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 13%
Q21 Do you believe in evolution, or not?
Do …………………………………………………………. 33%
Do not ……………………………………………………. 58%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 9%
Q22 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Nevada rancher Cliven Bundy?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 36%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 28%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 36%
Q23 Do you agree or disagree with Cliven Bundy’s
comments regarding slavery?
Agree …………………………………………………….. 11%
Disagree ………………………………………………… 49%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 40%
Q24 Given the choices of Cliven Bundy, Jeb Bush,
Chris Christie, Ted Cruz, Mike Huckabee,
Bobby Jindal, Rand Paul, Marco Rubio, and
Paul Ryan, who would you most like to see as
the GOP candidate for President in 2016?
Cliven Bundy…………………………………………… 3%
Jeb Bush………………………………………………… 15%
Chris Christie ………………………………………….. 9%
Ted Cruz ………………………………………………… 17%
Mike Huckabee ……………………………………….. 19%
Bobby Jindal …………………………………………… 4%
Rand Paul ………………………………………………. 15%
Marco Rubio …………………………………………… 5%
Paul Ryan ………………………………………………. 6%
Someone else / Not sure ………………………….. 9%
Q25 Do you think Barack Obama was born in the
United States?
Yes………………………………………………………… 31%
No …………………………………………………………. 52%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 16%
Q26 If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2.
Woman ………………………………………………….. 46%
Man……………………………………………………….. 54%
Q27 If you are 18 to 45 years old, press 1.If 46 to
65, press 2. If you are 65 or older, press 3.
18 to 45………………………………………………….. 28%
46 to 65………………………………………………….. 38%
Older than 65………………………………………….. 34%
Q28 Would you describe yourself as very liberal,
somewhat liberal, moderate, somewhat
conservative, or very conservative?
Very liberal ……………………………………………… 4%
Somewhat liberal …………………………………….. 4%
Moderate………………………………………………… 13%
Somewhat conservative……………………………. 35%
Very conservative ……………………………………. 45%
Q29 Area Code
252………………………………………………………… 9%
336………………………………………………………… 21%
704………………………………………………………… 23%
828………………………………………………………… 16%
910………………………………………………………… 12%
919………………………………………………………… 19%
