Raleigh, N.C. – PPP’s final poll of the North Carolina Republican Senate primary finds that Greg Brannon and Mark Harris are finally picking up some steam, but that it may be too little too late. Thom Tillis leads right at the 40% mark needed to avoid a runoff, followed by Brannon at 28% and Harris at 15% with the other candidates combining for a total of 8%. 11% of voters remain undecided so that should give Tillis the breathing room needed to get over 40%, but it doesn’t look as certain as it did a week ago.
The momentum has been on the anti-establishment candidates’ side as the race has come to a close. Brannon’s support has increased 8 points in the final week of the campaign and Harris’ has increased by 4 points. Their increases in support come as voters report having seen more from their campaigns- they’ve each had an 8-9 point increase in the percentage that have seen their tv ads, while Tillis was already pretty much maxed out on that front.
Negative ads against Tillis have also started to take more of a toll. His net favorability rating with Republican primary voters has declined 9 points in the last week +32 at 56/24 previously to now +23 at 52/29. 73% of voters now report having seen negative ads against Tillis and they’re having an impact- among those who’ve seen them Tillis’ favorability is only 47/38, and he leads Brannon just 36/35.
Nevertheless Tillis looks to have a pretty good chance at getting to the magic 40% mark on Tuesday. He’s in the 39-43% range with all three major ideological groups that we track- moderates, ‘somewhat conservative, and ‘very conservative’ voters. He has the lead in every section of the state.
There is a chance this is headed to a runoff though, and the numbers in a hypothetical match up between Tillis and Brannon show you why the Republican establishment is so scared of that possibility- Tillis would start out leading Brannon only 46/40, with supporters of the also rans moving their support over to Brannon by a 47/29 margin.
“Thom Tillis is still pretty well positioned to win without a runoff on Tuesday,” said Dean Debnam, President of Public Policy Polling. “But negative ads against him have taken a toll in the last week, giving Greg Brannon a chance of holding him under 40%.”
PPP surveyed 925 likely Republican primary voters through automated telephone interviews on May 3rd and 4th. The margin of error is +/-3.2%.
Topline results are below. Full results, including crosstabs, can be found here.
Q1 Do you plan to vote in the Republican or
Democratic primary for U.S. Senate?
Republican Primary………………………………….100%
Democratic Primary …………………………………. 0%
Not sure / Don’t plan to vote in a primary…….. 0%
Q2 The Republican candidates for U.S. Senate are
Thom Tillis, Jim Snyder, Edward Kryn, Mark
Harris, Heather Grant, Alex Bradshaw, Greg
Brannon, and Ted Alexander. If the election
was today, who would you vote for?
Thom Tillis ……………………………………………… 40%
Jim Snyder……………………………………………… 1%
Edward Kryn …………………………………………… 1%
Mark Harris …………………………………………….. 15%
Heather Grant …………………………………………. 4%
Alex Bradshaw………………………………………… 0%
Greg Brannon …………………………………………. 28%
Ted Alexander…………………………………………. 2%
Undecided………………………………………………. 11%
Q3 If there was a runoff election for the Republican
Senate nomination between Thom Tillis and
Greg Brannon, who would you vote for?
Thom Tillis ……………………………………………… 46%
Greg Brannon …………………………………………. 40%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 14%
Q4 If there was a runoff election for the Republican
Senate nomination between Thom Tillis and
Mark Harris, who would you vote for?
Thom Tillis ……………………………………………… 49%
Mark Harris …………………………………………….. 34%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 16%
Q5 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Thom Tillis?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 52%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 29%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 19%
Q6 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Jim Snyder?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 16%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 16%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 68%
Q7 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Edward Kryn?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 11%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 14%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 75%
Q8 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Mark Harris?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 43%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 15%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 43%
Q9 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Heather Grant?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 21%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 16%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 64%
Q10 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Alex Bradshaw?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 11%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 16%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 74%
Q11 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Greg Brannon?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 51%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 15%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 34%
Q12 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Ted Alexander?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 15%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 15%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 71%
Q13 Over the last few weeks, have you seen
television ads in support of Thom Tillis?
Yes………………………………………………………… 82%
No …………………………………………………………. 15%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 4%
Q14 Over the last few weeks, have you seen
television ads in support of Mark Harris?
Yes………………………………………………………… 35%
No …………………………………………………………. 55%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 10%
Q15 Over the last few weeks, have you seen
television ads in support of Greg Brannon?
Yes………………………………………………………… 37%
No …………………………………………………………. 53%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 10%
Q16 Given the choices of Thom Tillis, Mark Harris,
and Greg Brannon, who have you seen the
most televisions ads in support of?
Thom Tillis ……………………………………………… 71%
Mark Harris …………………………………………….. 6%
Greg Brannon …………………………………………. 6%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 16%
Q17 Over the last few weeks, have you seen
television ads in opposition to Thom Tillis?
Yes………………………………………………………… 73%
No …………………………………………………………. 17%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 11%
Q18 If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2.
Woman ………………………………………………….. 48%
Man……………………………………………………….. 52%
Q19 If you are 18 to 45 years old, press 1.If 46 to
65, press 2. If you are 65 or older, press 3.
18 to 45………………………………………………….. 26%
46 to 65………………………………………………….. 37%
Older than 65………………………………………….. 37%
Q20 Would you describe yourself as very liberal,
somewhat liberal, moderate, somewhat
conservative, or very conservative?
Very liberal ……………………………………………… 2%
Somewhat liberal …………………………………….. 3%
Moderate………………………………………………… 12%
Somewhat conservative……………………………. 31%
Very conservative ……………………………………. 45%
No Response………………………………………….. 6%
Q21 Area Code
252………………………………………………………… 10%
336………………………………………………………… 20%
704………………………………………………………… 21%
828………………………………………………………… 19%
910………………………………………………………… 15%
919………………………………………………………… 15%
