Polls

Tight Four-Way Race in 2012 GOP Field

| Tom Jensen

Header-poll-resultsRaleigh, N.C.PPP has polled Newt Gingrich and Ron Paul for the first time in the potential 2012 Republican presidential race nationally, and their presence reduces support for the other candidates, particularly Mitt Romney.  What was a decent advantage for Romney in a three-way race with Sarah Palin and Mike Huckabee is now a four-way draw, with Paul in a distant fifth and Romney slipping to a close second.

Huckabee has 25 to Romney’s 23, Gingrich’s 21, Palin’s 20, and Paul’s 8, with only 3% undecided versus last month’s 17% with more limited options.

Gingrich’s entry into the field erodes Romney’s support among conservatives the most of the three candidates polled last month.  Conservatives are 72% of the primary electorate.  Romney led among that group 34 to 28 for Huckabee and 25 for Palin, but he now is tied for third with Palin at only 21, with Huckabee at 26, Gingrich 23, and Paul 7. 

Romney leads among the 25% share of voters who call themselves moderate, at 27, to 21 for Huckabee, 16 for Gingrich, 15 for Palin, and 11 for Paul. 

All of the three candidates polled in April either slightly upped their favorables or decreased their unfavorables.  Palin is at 69-21 from 66-21, Romney at 54-19 from 54-24, and Huckabee at 58-13 from 55-13.  Gingrich enters the race with a 57-21 margin.

“The Republican field for 2012 is about as muddled as it could be right now,” said Dean Debnam, President of Public Policy Polling.  “All of the leading potential candidates are earning about the same amount of support right now, and that crowded pack leaves a lot of room for other candidates to become viable contenders between now and a year from now when the campaign will start to really heat up.”

PPP surveyed 539 Republican primary voters from May 7th to 9th.  The survey’s margin of error is +/-4.2%.  Other factors, such as refusal to be interviewed and weighting, may introduce additional error that is more difficult to quantify.

If you would like an interview regarding this release, please contact Dean Debnam at (888) 621-6988 or 919-880-4888.

Topline results are below. Full results, including crosstabs, can be found here.

Q1 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Mike Huckabee?
Favorable……………. 58%
Unfavorable ………… 13%
Not Sure……………… 28%

Q2 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Sarah Palin?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 69%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 21%
Not Sure…………………………………………………. 11%

Q3 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Newt Gingrich?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 57%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 21%
Not Sure…………………………………………………. 23%

Q4 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Mitt Romney?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 54%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 19%
Not Sure…………………………………………………. 26%

Q5 If the Republican candidates for President in
2012 were Newt Gingrich, Mike Huckabee,
Sarah Palin, Ron Paul and Mitt Romney who
would you support?
Newt Gingrich …………………………………………. 21%
Mike Huckabee ……………………………………….. 25%
Sarah Palin …………………………………………….. 20%
Ron Paul ………………………………………………… 8%
Mitt Romney……………………………………………. 23%
Undecided………………………………………………. 3%

Q6 Would you describe yourself as a liberal,
moderate, or conservative?
Liberal ……………………………………………………. 2%
Moderate………………………………………………… 25%
Conservative…………………………………………… 72%

Q7 If you are a woman, press 1, if a man, press 2.
Woman ………………………………………………….. 48%
Man……………………………………………………….. 52%

Q8 If you are 18 to 29 years old, press 1 now. If
you are 30 to 45, press 2. If you are 46 to 65,
press 3. If older, press 4.
18 to 29………………………………………………….. 9%
30 to 45………………………………………………….. 30%
46 to 65………………………………………………….. 41%
Older than 65………………………………………….. 20%

Q9 If you live in the Northeast, press 1. If the
South, press 2. If the Midwest, press 3. If the
West, press 4.
Northeast ……………………………………………….. 19%
South …………………………………………………….. 36%
Midwest …………………………………………………. 29%
West ……………………………………………………… 17%

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