Polls

Tight 2011 Gov. Race: Beshear Leads Grayson, Trails Farmer

| Tom Jensen

Header-poll-resultsRaleigh, N.C.While still not overwhelmingly popular, Kentucky Governor Steve Beshear has brought his job approval margin into positive territory since PPP last polled the state in early May.  And while he then trailed a generic Republican opponent, 44-35, he now polls much closer against two possible named opponents, Secretary of State Trey Grayson and Agriculture Commissioner Richie Farmer.

Beshear tops Grayson, 41-38, but lags behind Farmer, 40-39.  The major difference is that Farmer pulls 24% of the 52%-majority Democrats, versus Grayson’s 19%.  Farmer also does much better among women, trailing Beshear only 40-38 among them, to Grayson’s 46-33 deficit.  While Republicans are more united around Grayson and Farmer than Democrats are around Beshear, the two Republicans pull only 65% and 63% of the GOP vote, respectively, compared to the 70% a generic Republican garnered in May.

Two months ago, Beshear’s job performance figure was 38% in favor and 39% opposed.  He has brought his negatives down to 35% since then because a small number of Republicans and independents have moved from the disapproval category to being undecided.

Though 47% still have no opinion of him, Farmer, a former shooting guard for the Kentucky Wildcats, is by far the most popular of the three candidates.  39% have a favorable opinion of him, to only 14% unfavorable.  Compare that to Grayson, whose 24-21 margin includes 55% unsure after a hotly contested GOP primary for Jim Bunning’s Senate seat that Rand Paul ultimately won by a landslide.

“Steve Beshear was elected by an overwhelming margin in 2007 but it looks like he’ll probably face a closer race in his bid for reelection,” said Dean Debnam, President of Public Policy Polling.  “Farmer or Grayson would both give him a good challenge and it’s likely other Republicans would as well.”

PPP surveyed 625 Kentucky voters from June 28th to 30th.  The margin of error for the survey is +/-3.9%.  Other factors, such as refusal to be interviewed and weighting, may introduce additional error that is more difficult to quantify.

If you would like an interview regarding this release, please contact Dean Debnam at (888) 621-6988 or 919-880-4888.

Topline results are below. Full results, including crosstabs, can be found here.

Q1 Do you approve or disapprove of Governor
Steve Beshear’s job performance? If you
approve, press 1. If you disapprove, press 2.
If you’re not sure, press 3.
Approve …………………………………………………. 38%
Disapprove……………………………………………… 35%
Not Sure…………………………………………………. 26%

Q2 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Trey Grayson? If favorable, press 1. If
unfavorable, press 2. If you’re not sure, press
3.
Favorable……………………………………………….. 24%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 21%
Not Sure…………………………………………………. 55%

Q3 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Richie Farmer? If favorable, press 1. If
unfavorable, press 2. If you’re not sure, press
3.
Favorable……………………………………………….. 39%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 14%
Not Sure…………………………………………………. 47%

Q4 If the candidates for Governor next year were
Democrat Steve Beshear and Republican Trey
Grayson, who would you vote for? If Steve
Beshear, press 1. If Trey Grayson, press 2. If
you’re undecided, press 3.
Beshear …………………………………………………. 41%
Grayson …………………………………………………. 38%
Undecided………………………………………………. 21%

Q5 If the candidates for Governor next year were
Democrat Steve Beshear and Republican
Richie Farmer, who would you vote for? If
Steve Beshear, press 1. If Richie Farmer,
press 2. If you’re undecided, press 3.
Beshear …………………………………………………. 39%
Farmer …………………………………………………… 40%
Undecided………………………………………………. 21%

Q6 Who did you vote for President last year? If
John McCain, press 1. If Barack Obama, press
2. If someone else or you don’t remember,
press 3.
McCain…………………………………………………… 53%
Obama…………………………………………………… 38%
Someone Else/Don’t Remember………………… 9%

Q7 Would you describe yourself as a liberal,
moderate, or conservative? If liberal, press 1. If
moderate, press 2. If conservative, press 3.
Liberal ……………………………………………………. 12%
Moderate………………………………………………… 41%
Conservative…………………………………………… 47%

Q8 If you are a woman, press 1, if a man, press 2.
Woman ………………………………………………….. 55%
Man……………………………………………………….. 45%

Q9 If you are a Democrat, press 1. If you are a
Republican, press 2. If you are an independent
or identify with another party, press 3.
Democrat ……………………………………………….. 52%
Republican……………………………………………… 37%
Independent/Other…………………………………… 11%

Q10 If you are white, press one now. If you are
African-American, press two now. If other,
press 3.
White …………………………………………………….. 89%
African-American …………………………………….. 8%
Other……………………………………………………… 3%

Q11 If you are 18 to 29 years old, press 1 now. If
you are 30 to 45, press 2. If you are 46 to 65,
press 3. If older, press 4.
18 to 29………………………………………………….. 10%
30 to 45………………………………………………….. 24%
46 to 65………………………………………………….. 42%
Older than 65………………………………………….. 24%

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