Raleigh, N.C.– In 2008 North Carolina was the second
closest state in the Presidential race. It looks more and more like it could be
the closest this year. PPP’s newest poll finds Barack Obama and Mitt Romney
dead even at 48%. In 3 September PPP polls of the state we found a tie twice
and a one point Obama lead the third time. Taking a bigger picture look, in 26
Obama/Romney polls dating back to November of 2010 we have only found the
candidates separated by more than 3 points one time. It would be hard for the
race in North Carolina to be much tighter.
North Carolinians narrowly disapprove of Obama, with 48% giving him good
marks to 49% who are unhappy with his performance. They also have a narrowly
unfavorable opinion of Romney with 46% of voters rating him positively to 49%
with a negative opinion. The candidates are incredibly close on other measures
as well. Romney leads Obama 49/47 in terms of who voters trust more on the economy,
but Obama reverses those numbers for the 49/47 lead on who voters trust more on
foreign policy.
57% of voters say they’ve been personally contacted by the Obama campaign,
and 55% say they’ve been personally contacted by the Romney campaign. That
those numbers are so close is an indication of the race in North Carolina being
much different than 2008- the McCain campaign was sort of caught by surprise
here and significantly lagged Obama’s field operation.
Democrats in North Carolina are feeling more excitement about the campaign
at this point than Republicans are. 69% say they’re ‘very excited’ about voting
this fall compared to 58% of GOP voters. Beyond that 80% of African Americans
and 75% of voters under 30 said they were ‘very excited’ about voting. Those
are the groups that fueled Obama’s surprise North Carolina victory in 2008 so
their continued excitement bodes very well for his ability to do it again.
“The race in North Carolina couldn’t be much closer,” said Dean Debnam,
President of Public Policy Polling. “Someone will probably end up winning it by
less than a point. It’s likely to be a late election night.”
PPP surveyed 981
likely North Carolina voters from September 27th to 30th.
The margin of error for the survey is +/-3.1%. This poll was not paid for or
authorized by any campaign or political organization.
Topline results are below. Full results, including crosstabs, can be found here.
Q1 Do you approve or disapprove of President
Barack Obama’s job performance?
Approve …………………………………………………. 48%
Disapprove……………………………………………… 49%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 2%
Q2 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Mitt Romney?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 46%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 49%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 6%
Q3 The candidates for President are Democrat
Barack Obama and Republican Mitt Romney. If
the election was today, who would you vote
for?
Barack Obama………………………………………… 48%
Mitt Romney……………………………………………. 48%
Undecided………………………………………………. 4%
Q4 Do you trust Barack Obama or Mitt Romney
more on the issue of the economy?
Barack Obama………………………………………… 47%
Mitt Romney……………………………………………. 49%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 4%
Q5 Do you trust Barack Obama or Mitt Romney
more on the issue of foreign policy?
Barack Obama………………………………………… 49%
Mitt Romney……………………………………………. 47%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 4%
Q6 Are you very excited, somewhat excited, or not
at all excited about voting in the 2012
elections?
Very excited ……………………………………………. 63%
Somewhat excited …………………………………… 23%
Not at all excited ……………………………………… 14%
Q7 Have you been personally contacted by the
Obama campaign, Romney campaign, both
campaigns, or neither campaign about voting
for them this fall?
Obama campaign…………………………………….. 18%
Romney campaign…………………………………… 16%
Both campaigns ………………………………………. 39%
Neither campaign…………………………………….. 24%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 3%
Q8 Which candidate for President do you think
better understands the struggles you and your
family are going through?
Barack Obama………………………………………… 48%
Mitt Romney……………………………………………. 42%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 10%
Q9 Are you familiar with comments Mitt Romney
has made about the ‘47%’, or not?
Familiar with Romney’s comments …………….. 91%
Not familiar……………………………………………… 9%
Q10 Mitt Romney recently said, “There are 47
percent of the people who will vote for the
president no matter what. All right? There are
47 percent who are with him, who are
dependent upon government, who believe that
they are victims, who believe the government
has a responsibility to care for them, who
believe that they are entitled to health care, to
food, to housing, to you-name-it, that that’s an
entitlement. And the government should give it
to them. And they will vote for this president no
matter what…. These are people who pay no
income tax.” Do you think Romney’s comments
were appropriate or inappropriate?
Appropriate …………………………………………….. 44%
Inappropriate…………………………………………… 50%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 6%
Q11 Do these comments make you more or less
likely to vote for Mitt Romney, or do they not
make a difference?
More likely………………………………………………. 28%
Less likely ………………………………………………. 38%
Don’t make a difference ……………………………. 32%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 2%
Q12 Do you think Mitt Romney should release his
tax returns for the last 12 years, or not?
He should……………………………………………….. 50%
He should not………………………………………….. 41%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 8%
Q13 Do you think pollsters are intentionally skewing
their polls this year to help Barack Obama, or
not?
They are intentionally skewing their polls…….. 46%
They are not……………………………………………. 38%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 17%
Q14 Were you born in North Carolina or in another
state?
Born in NC……………………………………………… 58%
Born in another state ……………………………….. 42%
Q15 How long have you lived in North Carolina: 10
years or less, 11 to 20 years, 21 to 30 years,
31 to 40 years, or more than 40 years?
10 years or less ………………………………………. 14%
11 to 20 years …………………………………………. 17%
21 to 30 years …………………………………………. 15%
31 to 40 years …………………………………………. 13%
More than 40 years………………………………….. 41%
Q16 Would you describe yourself as very liberal,
somewhat liberal, moderate, somewhat
conservative, or very conservative?
Very liberal ……………………………………………… 13%
Somewhat liberal …………………………………….. 14%
Moderate………………………………………………… 30%
Somewhat conservative……………………………. 24%
Very conservative ……………………………………. 19%
Q17 If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2.
Woman ………………………………………………….. 56%
Man……………………………………………………….. 44%
Q18 If you are a Democrat, press 1. If a Republican,
press 2. If you are an independent or identify
with another party, press 3.
Democrat ……………………………………………….. 48%
Republican……………………………………………… 34%
Independent/Other…………………………………… 19%
Q19 If you are white, press 1. If African-American,
press 2. If other, press 3.
White …………………………………………………….. 72%
African-American …………………………………….. 22%
Other……………………………………………………… 6%
Q20 If you are 18 to 29 years old, press 1. If 30 to
45, press 2. If 46 to 65, press 3. If you are
older than 65, press 4.
18 to 29………………………………………………….. 15%
30 to 45………………………………………………….. 22%
46 to 65………………………………………………….. 43%
Older than 65………………………………………….. 20%
