Raleigh, N.C. – With four Democratic-held seats and one GOP seat in play in Illinois, Republicans have pulled to a tie with Democrats in the generic congressional ballot among likely voters, with 44% preferring each party. Democrats led in August, 46-40. Republicans have become more unified—now at 94-1 versus 88-6 in August—and Democrats less so—now at 83-8 versus 90-3—but Democrats’ saving grace is that, as in the gubernatorial race, undecided independents have moved toward the Democratic candidates. Republicans still lead among unaffiliateds, at 41-32, but that is down from a 40-25 edge last time.
Former Governor Rod Blagojevich is almost unanimously reviled, with an 8-83 mark, now taking his place as the most hated person PPP has ever polled in his home state from Levi Johnston and, previously, John Edwards.
Poised to resign as White House Chief of Staff today and announce a bid for mayor of Chicago, former Illinois congressman Rahm Emanuel is far less liked than his current boss, with a 29-50 favorability rating to Obama’s 44-49 job approval grade.
Congressman Jesse Jackson, Jr., who had considered a mayoral bid until a personal scandal cropped up, is almost as disliked as Blago, at 10-73.
When asked which race they are most excited to turn out and vote for, Prairie Staters narrowly choose the gubernatorial contest, 29-26, over the Senate race. But that is simply on the backs of Republicans, who seem much more enthused about Bill Brady than Mark Kirk, choosing the race to beat Pat Quinn by a 38-26 margin. Democrats, at 27-26, and independents, at 26-22, narrowly favor the Senate race. Independents are most likely to be excited about the congressional races, 12% of them choosing those contests, versus 8% of Republicans and 6% of Democrats. 11% of Democrats are most amped-up about local races, with only 5% of independents and 4% of Republicans saying the same. This fits the general picture of this election—Republicans nationalizing the midterms, and Democrats trying to keep it local.
PPP surveyed 470 likely Illinois voters from September 23rd to 26th. The survey’s margin of error is +/-4.5%. Other factors, such as refusal to be interviewed and weighting, may introduce additional error that is more difficult to quantify.
Topline results are below. Full results, including crosstabs, can be found here.
Q1 If the election for Congress was today, would
you vote for a Democrat or a Republican?
Democrat ……………………………………………….. 44%
Republican……………………………………………… 44%
Undecided………………………………………………. 13%
Q2 Between the Senate race, the Governor’s race,
the US House of Representatives race, the
legislative races, or some local race which one
are you most excited about voting for this year?
Senate race ……………………………………………. 26%
Governor’s race ………………………………………. 29%
U.S. House race ……………………………………… 8%
Legislative races ……………………………………… 2%
Some local race ………………………………………. 7%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 28%
Q3 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Rahm Emanuel?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 29%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 50%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 22%
Q4 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Rod Blagojevich?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 8%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 83%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 9%
Q5 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Jesse Jackson, Jr.?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 10%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 73%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 17%
Q6 Who did you vote for President in 2008?
John McCain…………………………………………… 39%
Barack Obama………………………………………… 54%
Someone else/Don’t remember …………………. 7%
Q7 Would you describe yourself as a liberal,
moderate, or conservative?
Liberal ……………………………………………………. 23%
Moderate………………………………………………… 40%
Conservative…………………………………………… 37%
Q8 If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2.
Woman ………………………………………………….. 55%
Man……………………………………………………….. 45%
Q9 If you are a Democrat, press 1. If a Republican,
press 2. If you are an independent or identify
with another party, press 3.
Democrat ……………………………………………….. 42%
Republican……………………………………………… 32%
Independent/Other…………………………………… 26%
Q10 If you are Hispanic, press 1. If white, press 2.
If African-American, press 3. If other, press 4.
Hispanic…………………………………………………. 6%
White …………………………………………………….. 78%
African-American …………………………………….. 12%
Other……………………………………………………… 4%
Q11 If you are 18 to 29 years old, press 1. If 30 to
45, press 2. If 46 to 65, press 3. If you are
older than 65, press 4.
18 to 29………………………………………………….. 8%
30 to 45………………………………………………….. 27%
46 to 65………………………………………………….. 43%
Older than 65………………………………………….. 22%
Q12
Chicago………………………………………………….. 17%
Rest of State…………………………………………… 83%
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