Raleigh, N.C. – Rep. Tammy Baldwin is still Democrats’ favorite to replace the retiring Sen. Herb Kohl if Russ Feingold declines a bid. She earns 37% support to former Rep. Steve Kagen’s 22% and Rep. Ron Kind’s 15%, and routs Kagen 48-19 if Kind is not a candidate. With Baldwin the best-known and by far the most popular, this is somewhat a function of name recognition. PPP did not test Feingold because in May, his 70% support in an eight-candidate slate showed field-clearing power.
On the Republican side, former Governor Tommy Thompson has a slim 47-39 lead over the more conservative but considerably less-known and less-liked former Rep. Mark Neumann. While Thompson rakes with the small band of moderates, 57-21, and does well with the center-right, 48-33, Neumann cleans up with the furthest right plurality, 54-38. Indeed, when voters are exposed to potential lines of attack against Thompson from the Neumann camp, Neumann vaults into an overall 59-26 lead, winning 71-16 with the most conservative voters and 58-27 with the somewhat conservative, with Thompson holding onto only a 44-40 edge with centrists.
The same conservative inclination is really starting to hurt Mitt Romney in the presidential contest. Having just entered the race, Rick Perry already ties Tea Party darling Michele Bachmann for the lead in Wisconsin, each with 20%. Romney has 13%, Sarah Palin 11%, Herman Cain 7%, and Newt Gingrich and Ron Paul 6%. Without Palin, Bachmann jumps to 24% with Perry still at 20%, Romney at 17%, Gingrich at 10%, and the others jogging in place. When PPP last took a look at the race in May, Romney had a slim lead, with almost everyone muddled in double digits.
“Tommy Thompson is going to have a very hard time holding up to the attacks that will come his way in a Republican primary,” said Dean Debnam, President of Public Policy Polling. “An increasingly Tea Party dominated GOP may have passed him by.”
PPP surveyed 387 usual Wisconsin Democratic primary voters, with a +/- 5.0% margin of error, and 362 usual Republican primary voters, with a +/- 5.2% margin of error, from August 12th to 14th. This poll was not paid for or authorized by any campaign or political organization. PPP surveys are conducted through automated telephone interviews. PPP is a Democratic polling company, but polling expert Nate Silver of the New York Times found that its surveys in 2010 actually exhibited a slight bias toward Republican candidates.
Topline results are below. Full results, including crosstabs, can be found here.
Republican Primary Toplines
Q1 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Michele Bachmann?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 57%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 22%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 22%
Q2 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Herman Cain?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 37%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 19%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 44%
Q3 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Sarah Palin?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 66%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 23%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 10%
Q4 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Rick Perry?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 49%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 13%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 38%
Q5 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Mitt Romney?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 53%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 28%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 19%
Q6 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Mark Neumann?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 43%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 14%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 43%
Q7 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Tommy Thompson?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 74%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 17%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 9%
Q8 If the candidates for President next year were
Michele Bachmann, Herman Cain, Newt
Gingrich, Jon Huntsman, Sarah Palin, Ron
Paul, Tim Pawlenty, Rick Perry, and Mitt
Romney, who would you vote for?
Michele Bachmann ………………………………….. 20%
Herman Cain…………………………………………… 7%
Newt Gingrich …………………………………………. 6%
Jon Huntsman…………………………………………. 1%
Sarah Palin …………………………………………….. 11%
Ron Paul ………………………………………………… 6%
Tim Pawlenty ………………………………………….. 3%
Rick Perry ………………………………………………. 20%
Mitt Romney……………………………………………. 13%
Someone else/Undecided…………………………. 12%
Q9 If Sarah Palin didn’t end up running for
President, and the candidates were Michele
Bachmann, Herman Cain, Newt Gingrich, Jon
Huntsman, Ron Paul, Tim Pawlenty, Rick
Perry, and Mitt Romney, who would you vote
for?
Michele Bachmann ………………………………….. 24%
Herman Cain…………………………………………… 7%
Newt Gingrich …………………………………………. 10%
Jon Huntsman…………………………………………. 1%
Ron Paul ………………………………………………… 6%
Tim Pawlenty ………………………………………….. 4%
Rick Perry ………………………………………………. 20%
Mitt Romney……………………………………………. 17%
Someone else/Undecided…………………………. 11%
Q10 If the candidates for Senate next year were
Mark Neumann and Tommy Thompson, who
would you vote for?
Mark Neumann ……………………………………….. 39%
Tommy Thompson …………………………………… 47%
Undecided………………………………………………. 13%
Q11 While Tommy Thompson was Governor, he
more than doubled state spending and
increased government bureaucracy. Then he
endorsed Obamacare, President Obama’s $1-
trillion-dollar government takeover of health
care. Given this information, would you vote
for Mark Neumann or Tommy Thompson if the
primary for Senate was today?
Mark Neumann ……………………………………….. 59%
Tommy Thompson …………………………………… 26%
Undecided………………………………………………. 15%
Q12 Would you describe yourself as very liberal,
somewhat liberal, moderate, somewhat
conservative, or very conservative?
Very liberal ……………………………………………… 2%
Somewhat liberal …………………………………….. 7%
Moderate………………………………………………… 14%
Somewhat conservative……………………………. 38%
Very conservative ……………………………………. 39%
Q13 If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2.
Woman ………………………………………………….. 47%
Man……………………………………………………….. 53%
Q14 If you are 18 to 29 years old, press 1. If 30 to
45, press 2. If 46 to 65, press 3. If you are
older than 65, press 4.
18 to 29………………………………………………….. 6%
30 to 45………………………………………………….. 29%
46 to 65………………………………………………….. 40%
Older than 65………………………………………….. 25%
Democratic Primary Toplines
Q1 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Ron Kind?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 23%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 25%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 52%
Q2 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Tammy Baldwin?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 43%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 13%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 44%
Q3 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Steve Kagen?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 19%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 15%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 66%
Q4 Given the choices of Tammy Baldwin, Steve
Kagen, and Ron Kind, who would you most like
the Democratic candidate for Senate to be next
year?
Tammy Baldwin……………………………………….. 37%
Steve Kagen …………………………………………… 15%
Ron Kind………………………………………………… 21%
Undecided………………………………………………. 27%
Q5 If the candidates for Senate next year were just
Tammy Baldwin and Steve Kagen, who would
you vote for?
Tammy Baldwin……………………………………….. 48%
Steve Kagen …………………………………………… 19%
Undecided………………………………………………. 33%
Q6 Would you describe yourself as very liberal,
somewhat liberal, moderate, somewhat
conservative, or very conservative?
Very liberal ……………………………………………… 18%
Somewhat liberal …………………………………….. 39%
Moderate………………………………………………… 36%
Somewhat conservative……………………………. 5%
Very conservative ……………………………………. 2%
Q7 If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2.
Woman ………………………………………………….. 62%
Man……………………………………………………….. 38%
Q8 If you are 18 to 29 years old, press 1. If 30 to
45, press 2. If 46 to 65, press 3. If you are
older than 65, press 4.
18 to 29………………………………………………….. 15%
30 to 45………………………………………………….. 23%
46 to 65………………………………………………….. 44%
Older than 65………………………………………….. 18%
