Raleigh, N.C. – Tommy Thompson
has emerged from his hard-fought and somewhat surprising primary victory with a
five-point lead over Democratic nominee Tammy Baldwin (49-44). When PPP last polled the potential Senate match-up
in early July, the two were tied at 45%.
In the last month and a half, Baldwin’s personal numbers have gotten a bit
worse. 37% saw her favorably and 39%
unfavorably in the last poll; the spread is now 40-45. Democrats have rallied around her, but
Republicans even more against her. For
Thompson, the trend has been the opposite.
His numbers are up from 40-47 to 46-43 thanks to a huge boost from his
base.
To go along with that, Thompson now leads 93-4 with Republican voters, up
from 84-7 before the primary. Baldwin’s near-lock
on her base has not changed (88-7).
Independents have moved a hair from a 43-all tie to a 45-42 Thompson
edge.
Likely voters in this fall’s election prefer a Republican Senate majority by
a slim 45-44 mark. Unlike Elizabeth
Warren in Massachusetts, Baldwin can expect no windfall from her partisans
realizing the stakes at hand—they are already behind both her and a Democratic
majority. The game plan for Baldwin now
is convincing enough independents, who are a third or more of voters, that they
are better off if Republicans do not take control of Congress’ upper
chamber. Right now, they prefer GOP
control by the same three-point margin as they favor Thompson.
“Tommy Thompson’s received a boost after winning his primary,” said Dean
Debnam, President of Public Policy Polling. “There are no problems with
Republican unity and Tammy Baldwin has her work cut out for her.”
Scott Walker’s numbers have stabilized since surviving a recall attempt a
few months ago. 51% approve and 46%
disapprove of his job performance, the same as in July. If he were to face off against an unnamed
Democratic opponent right now, he would survive by the same spread, with
independents opting for Walker by a 48-45 margin.
PPP surveyed 1,308 likely Wisconsin voters from August
16th to 19th. The margin of error for the survey is +/-2.7%. This poll was not paid for or authorized by
any campaign or political organization. PPP surveys are conducted through automated
telephone interviews.
Topline results are below. Full results, including crosstabs, can be found here.
Q1 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Tammy Baldwin?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 40%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 45%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 14%
Q2 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Tommy Thompson?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 46%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 43%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 11%
Q3 The candidates for US Senate this fall are
Democrat Tammy Baldwin and Republican
Tommy Thompson. If the election was today,
who would you vote for?
Tammy Baldwin……………………………………….. 44%
Tommy Thompson …………………………………… 49%
Undecided………………………………………………. 7%
Q4 Do you approve or disapprove of Governor
Scott Walker’s job performance?
Approve …………………………………………………. 51%
Disapprove……………………………………………… 46%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 3%
Q5 Do you approve or disapprove of Senator Ron
Johnson’s job performance?
Approve …………………………………………………. 38%
Disapprove……………………………………………… 37%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 25%
Q6 Do you approve or disapprove of Senator Herb
Kohl’s job performance?
Approve …………………………………………………. 48%
Disapprove……………………………………………… 36%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 16%
Q7 Generally speaking, if there was an election
today, would you vote for Republican Scott
Walker or his Democratic opponent?
Scott Walker …………………………………………… 51%
Democratic opponent……………………………….. 46%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 4%
Q8 Would you rather that Democrats or
Republicans had control of the US Senate?
Democrats ……………………………………………… 44%
Republicans ……………………………………………. 45%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 11%
Q9 If there was an election for the state legislature
today, would you vote Democratic or
Republican?
Democratic……………………………………………… 44%
Republican……………………………………………… 45%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 10%
Q10 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Reince Priebus?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 19%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 21%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 60%
Q11 Would you ever support a gay candidate for
public office, or not?
Open to voting for a gay candidate …………….. 64%
Are not …………………………………………………… 23%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 13%
Q12 Would you pay 11 to 14 cents extra for a Papa
John’s pizza to ensure that the company’s
employees have health care, or not?
Would pay more………………………………………. 59%
Would not……………………………………………….. 22%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 18%
Q13 Who did you vote for President in 2008?
John McCain…………………………………………… 43%
Barack Obama………………………………………… 51%
Someone else/Don’t remember …………………. 6%
Q14 Would you describe yourself as very liberal,
somewhat liberal, moderate, somewhat
conservative, or very conservative?
Very liberal ……………………………………………… 10%
Somewhat liberal …………………………………….. 20%
Moderate………………………………………………… 29%
Somewhat conservative……………………………. 24%
Very conservative ……………………………………. 16%
Q15 If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2.
Woman ………………………………………………….. 52%
Man……………………………………………………….. 48%
Q16 If you are a Democrat, press 1. If a Republican,
press 2. If you are an independent or identify
with another party, press 3.
Democrat ……………………………………………….. 32%
Republican……………………………………………… 34%
Independent/Other…………………………………… 34%
Q17 If you are white, press 1. If other, press 2.
White …………………………………………………….. 92%
Other……………………………………………………… 8%
Q18 If you are 18 to 29 years old, press 1. If 30 to
45, press 2. If 46 to 65, press 3. If you are
older than 65, press 4.
18 to 29………………………………………………….. 12%
30 to 45………………………………………………….. 22%
46 to 65………………………………………………….. 46%
Older than 65………………………………………….. 20%
