Raleigh, N.C. – The Democratic field has largely been cleared for Rep. Tammy Baldwin in Wisconsin, but Tuesday’s release from PPP showed that presumptive Republican Senate nominee, former Gov. Tommy Thompson, has a fight on his hands on the GOP side. Regardless of which candidate Baldwin faces next year, though, the Democrats will have to battle to keep Herb Kohl’s seat blue.
Baldwin lags Thompson by two points, 46-44, a six-point improvement from when PPP last polled the state in August. Then, Thompson led 50-42. Baldwin has also upped her standing by five points against Mark Neumann, from a 44-40 Neumann lead to a 44-43 Baldwin one. Jeff Fitzgerald, tested for the first time, trails Baldwin by four points, 44-40. Minor contender Frank Lasee is down seven, 44-37.
Nearly all of Baldwin’s improvement against Neumann and Thompson is with her own party. As Democrats become familiar with their eventual standard bearer, they are consolidating around her, and since they are a slight plurality of voters, that makes a big difference. Thompson leads with independents by 13 points, Neumann by six, and Fitzgerald by one, the former two similar to their leads in August.
Representing only about an eighth of the state, it is not surprising fewer than three out of five voters have an opinion on Baldwin at this point. Fitzgerald and Neumann are even slightly less well known. Only Thompson has the statewide name recognition both nominees will have at this point next year. But voters are evenly split on him, 42% with a favorable opinion and 42% with an unfavorable one.
“The Wisconsin Senate race is shaping up as yet another toss up,” said Dean Debnam, President of Public Policy Polling. “It looks like there are going to be a lot of very close Senate races across the country next year. Tammy Baldwin’s numbers have improved as it’s become more clear that she’s likely to be the Democratic nominee.”
PPP surveyed 1,170 Wisconsin voters from October 20th to 23rd. The margin of error for the survey is +/-2.9%. This poll was not paid for or authorized by any campaign or political organization. PPP surveys are conducted through automated telephone interviews. PPP is a Democratic polling company, but polling expert Nate Silver of the New York Times found that its surveys in 2010 actually exhibited a slight bias toward Republican candidates.
Topline results are below. Full results, including crosstabs, can be found here.
Q1 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Tammy Baldwin?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 28%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 30%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 42%
Q2 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Jeff Fitzgerald?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 20%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 33%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 47%
Q3 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Frank Lasee?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 6%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 19%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 75%
Q4 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Mark Neumann?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 23%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 30%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 47%
Q5 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Tommy Thompson?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 42%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 42%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 16%
Q6 If the candidates for US Senate in 2012 were
Democrat Tammy Baldwin and Republican Jeff
Fitzgerald, who would you vote for?
Tammy Baldwin……………………………………….. 44%
Jeff Fitzgerald …………………………………………. 40%
Undecided………………………………………………. 16%
Q7 If the candidates for US Senate in 2012 were
Democrat Tammy Baldwin and Republican
Frank Lasee, who would you vote for?
Tammy Baldwin……………………………………….. 44%
Frank Lasee……………………………………………. 37%
Undecided………………………………………………. 19%
Q8 If the candidates for US Senate in 2012 were
Democrat Tammy Baldwin and Republican
Mark Neumann, who would you vote for?
Tammy Baldwin……………………………………….. 44%
Mark Neumann ……………………………………….. 43%
Undecided………………………………………………. 13%
Q9 If the candidates for US Senate in 2012 were
Democrat Tammy Baldwin and Republican
Tommy Thompson, who would you vote for?
Tammy Baldwin……………………………………….. 44%
Tommy Thompson …………………………………… 46%
Undecided………………………………………………. 10%
Q10 Would you describe yourself as very liberal,
somewhat liberal, moderate, somewhat
conservative, or very conservative?
Very liberal ……………………………………………… 10%
Somewhat liberal …………………………………….. 19%
Moderate………………………………………………… 30%
Somewhat conservative……………………………. 25%
Very conservative ……………………………………. 17%
Q11 If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2.
Woman ………………………………………………….. 52%
Man……………………………………………………….. 48%
Q12 If you are a Democrat, press 1. If a Republican,
press 2. If you are an independent or identify
with another party, press 3.
Democrat ……………………………………………….. 37%
Republican……………………………………………… 31%
Independent/Other…………………………………… 32%
Q13 If you are white, press 1. If other, press 2.
White …………………………………………………….. 89%
Other……………………………………………………… 11%
Q14 If you are 18 to 29 years old, press 1. If 30 to
45, press 2. If 46 to 65, press 3. If you are
older than 65, press 4.
18 to 29………………………………………………….. 12%
30 to 45………………………………………………….. 26%
46 to 65………………………………………………….. 39%
Older than 65………………………………………….. 23%
