Raleigh, N.C. – Yesterday’s release showed Tommy Thompson as potentially very vulnerable to a challenge from his right by Mark Neumann for the Republican Senate nomination in Wisconsin. But despite Thompson’s electability claims, even Neumann is in decent shape against any possible Democratic nominee but Russ Feingold, as the race has taken a definite turn toward the GOP since PPP last polled the state in May.
Now Neumann tops Ron Kind, 43-40; Tammy Baldwin, 44-40; and Steve Kagen, 45-38, while trailing Feingold, 51-44. Three months ago, Neumann lagged Kagen by one point, Kind by four, Baldwin by five, and Feingold by 12, a shift of five to nine points on the margin.
Thompson is still the stronger candidate, but he only outperforms Neumann by one to six points—not so much, particularly when taking into consideration the 34-point disparity between the two men’s name recognition. Thompson lags Feingold only 48-47, a closure of nine points in three months. But he leads Kind, 48-41 (up seven); Baldwin, 50-42 (up seven); and Kagen, 49-41 (up five).
Feingold is still the best-known and best-liked of the candidates, 49% having a favorable impression of him and 43% a negative one. That bests Thompson’s 44-42, Baldwin’s 26-28, Neumann’s 25-27, Kind’s 18-26, and Kagen’s 12-23. Because of the Democrats’ anonymity, more Democrats than Republicans are undecided except in the Feingold matchups, so the races will likely close. But the Republicans lead with independents except against Feingold, and all of the Democrats are losing more of their own party than they are gaining GOP support.
“Republicans have a genuine pick up opportunity here,” said Dean Debnam, President of Public Policy Polling. “As the recall elections showed this is a very closely divided state right now.”
PPP surveyed 830 Wisconsin voters from August 12th to 14th. The margin of error for the survey is +/- 3.4%. This poll was not paid for or authorized by any campaign or political organization. PPP surveys are conducted through automated telephone interviews. PPP is a Democratic polling company, but polling expert Nate Silver of the New York Times found that its surveys in 2010 actually exhibited a slight bias toward Republican candidates.
Topline results are below. Full results, including crosstabs, can be found here.
Q1 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Russ Feingold?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 49%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 43%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 8%
Q2 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Ron Kind?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 18%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 26%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 56%
Q3 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Tammy Baldwin?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 26%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 28%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 46%
Q4 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Steve Kagen?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 12%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 23%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 64%
Q5 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Mark Neumann?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 25%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 27%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 48%
Q6 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Tommy Thompson?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 44%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 42%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 14%
Q7 If the candidates for US Senate in 2012 were
Democrat Tammy Baldwin and Republican
Mark Neumann, who would you vote for?
Tammy Baldwin……………………………………….. 40%
Mark Neumann ……………………………………….. 44%
Undecided………………………………………………. 15%
Q8 If the candidates for US Senate in 2012 were
Democrat Tammy Baldwin and Republican
Tommy Thompson, who would you vote for?
Tammy Baldwin……………………………………….. 42%
Tommy Thompson …………………………………… 50%
Undecided………………………………………………. 8%
Q9 If the candidates for US Senate in 2012 were
Democrat Russ Feingold and Republican Mark
Neumann, who would you vote for?
Russ Feingold…………………………………………. 51%
Mark Neumann ……………………………………….. 44%
Undecided………………………………………………. 5%
Q10 If the candidates for US Senate in 2012 were
Democrat Russ Feingold and Republican
Tommy Thompson, who would you vote for?
Russ Feingold…………………………………………. 48%
Tommy Thompson …………………………………… 47%
Undecided………………………………………………. 5%
Q11 If the candidates for US Senate in 2012 were
Democrat Ron Kind and Republican Mark
Neumann, who would you vote for?
Ron Kind………………………………………………… 40%
Mark Neumann ……………………………………….. 43%
Undecided………………………………………………. 17%
Q12 If the candidates for US Senate in 2012 were
Democrat Ron Kind and Republican Tommy
Thompson, who would you vote for?
Ron Kind………………………………………………… 41%
Tommy Thompson …………………………………… 48%
Undecided………………………………………………. 11%
Q13 If the candidates for US Senate in 2012 were
Democrat Steve Kagen and Republican Mark
Neumann, who would you vote for?
Steve Kagen …………………………………………… 38%
Mark Neumann ……………………………………….. 45%
Undecided………………………………………………. 17%
Q14 If the candidates for US Senate in 2012 were
Democrat Steve Kagen and Republican
Tommy Thompson, who would you vote for?
Steve Kagen …………………………………………… 41%
Tommy Thompson …………………………………… 49%
Undecided………………………………………………. 10%
Q15 Who did you vote for President in 2008?
John McCain…………………………………………… 41%
Barack Obama………………………………………… 51%
Someone else/Don’t remember …………………. 8%
Q16 Would you describe yourself as very liberal,
somewhat liberal, moderate, somewhat
conservative, or very conservative?
Very liberal ……………………………………………… 11%
Somewhat liberal …………………………………….. 22%
Moderate………………………………………………… 29%
Somewhat conservative……………………………. 21%
Very conservative ……………………………………. 17%
Q17 If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2.
Woman ………………………………………………….. 55%
Man……………………………………………………….. 45%
Q18 If you are a Democrat, press 1. If a Republican,
press 2. If you are an independent or identify
with another party, press 3.
Democrat ……………………………………………….. 37%
Republican……………………………………………… 34%
Independent/Other…………………………………… 29%
Q19 If you are white, press 1. If other, press 2.
White …………………………………………………….. 89%
Other……………………………………………………… 11%
Q20 If you are 18 to 29 years old, press 1. If 30 to
45, press 2. If 46 to 65, press 3. If you are
older than 65, press 4.
18 to 29………………………………………………….. 12%
30 to 45………………………………………………….. 26%
46 to 65………………………………………………….. 42%
Older than 65………………………………………….. 20%
