Raleigh, N.C. – Every month, PPP polls Republican primary voters nationwide about their preferences for the GOP presidential nomination. Almost every month, the top four candidates have been in a statistical tie, with various candidates jockeying back and forth for slim leads. But for the first time in three months, when Mike Huckabee had a ten-point lead over Mitt Romney and Sarah Palin, PPP has found a candidate who puts serious distance between himself and the rest of the field: Donald Trump.
Trump leads with 26% over Huckabee’s 17%, Romney’s 15%, Newt Gingrich’s 11%, Palin’s 8%, Ron Paul’s 5%, and Tim Pawlenty and Michele Bachmann’s 4%.
23% of these voters say they would not be willing to vote for a candidate who stated clearly that Obama was born in the U.S. 38% say they would, and a 39% plurality are not sure. Among the hardcore birthers, Trump leads with 37%, almost three times as much support as anyone else. He comes in only third at 17% with those who are fine with a candidate that thinks the President was born in the country. Romney, who recently stated he believes Obama is a citizen, leads with 23% with that group but gets only 10% with birthers.
Take Trump out of the equation, and the field is more muddled. Huckabee leads with 22% over Romney’s 16%, Gingrich’s 15%, Palin’s 12%, Paul’s 8%, Pawlenty’s and Bachmann’s 6%, and Haley Barbour’s 3%. In this and other variations of the potential field, Palin and Huckabee are the favorites of birthers. Trump pulls the least support from Romney of any of the candidates.
“Who knows if he’s really going to end up running or not but Donald Trump is certainly getting a lot of traction with Republican primary voters,” said Dean Debnam, President of Public Policy Polling. “A lot of GOP voters have not been happy with their choice of candidates and Trump is filling that void, at least for the moment.”
PPP numbers released yesterday found Barack Obama leading six potential Republican opponents by anywhere from 5-18 points.
PPP surveyed 400 Republican primary voters nationally from April 7th to 10th. The survey’s margin of error is +/-4.9%. Other factors, such as refusal to be interviewed and weighting, may introduce additional error that is more difficult to quantify.
Topline results are below. Full results, including crosstabs, can be found here.
Q1 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Mike Huckabee?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 61%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 18%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 21%
Q2 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Sarah Palin?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 61%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 31%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 8%
Q3 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Newt Gingrich?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 50%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 33%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 17%
Q4 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Mitt Romney?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 50%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 29%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 20%
Q5 If the Republican candidates for President in
2012 were Michele Bachmann, Haley Barbour,
Newt Gingrich, Mike Huckabee, Sarah Palin,
Ron Paul, Tim Pawlenty, and Mitt Romney who
would you vote for?
Michele Bachmann ………………………………….. 6%
Haley Barbour…………………………………………. 3%
Newt Gingrich …………………………………………. 15%
Mike Huckabee ……………………………………….. 22%
Sarah Palin …………………………………………….. 12%
Ron Paul ………………………………………………… 8%
Tim Pawlenty ………………………………………….. 6%
Mitt Romney……………………………………………. 16%
Someone else/Undecided…………………………. 13%
Q6 Let’s say Mike Huckabee decides not to run
and the candidates for President next year
were Michele Bachmann, Haley Barbour, Newt
Gingrich, Sarah Palin, Ron Paul, Tim Pawlenty,
and Mitt Romney. Who would you vote for?
Michele Bachmann ………………………………….. 5%
Haley Barbour…………………………………………. 3%
Newt Gingrich …………………………………………. 20%
Sarah Palin …………………………………………….. 15%
Ron Paul ………………………………………………… 12%
Tim Pawlenty ………………………………………….. 6%
Mitt Romney……………………………………………. 22%
Someone else/Undecided…………………………. 16%
Q7 Let’s say Sarah Palin decides not to run and
the candidates for President next year were
Michele Bachmann, Haley Barbour, Mitch
Daniels, Newt Gingrich, Mike Huckabee, Ron
Paul, Tim Pawlenty, and Mitt Romney. Who
would you vote for?
Michele Bachmann ………………………………….. 7%
Haley Barbour…………………………………………. 2%
Newt Gingrich …………………………………………. 18%
Mike Huckabee ……………………………………….. 24%
Ron Paul ………………………………………………… 10%
Tim Pawlenty ………………………………………….. 6%
Mitt Romney……………………………………………. 19%
Someone else/Undecided…………………………. 15%
Q8 Let’s say neither Mike Huckabee nor Sarah
Palin runs for President and the candidates
next year were Michele Bachmann, Haley
Barbour, Newt Gingrich, Ron Paul, Tim
Pawlenty, and Mitt Romney. Who would you
vote for?
Michele Bachmann ………………………………….. 8%
Haley Barbour…………………………………………. 4%
Newt Gingrich …………………………………………. 23%
Ron Paul ………………………………………………… 13%
Tim Pawlenty ………………………………………….. 10%
Mitt Romney……………………………………………. 25%
Someone else/Undecided…………………………. 16%
Q9 Here’s one last scenario: what if Donald Trump
ran for President and the candidates were
Michele Bachmann, Newt Gingrich, Mike
Huckabee, Sarah Palin, Ron Paul, Tim
Pawlenty, Mitt Romney, and Donald Trump.
Who would you vote for?
Michele Bachmann ………………………………….. 4%
Newt Gingrich …………………………………………. 11%
Mike Huckabee ……………………………………….. 17%
Sarah Palin …………………………………………….. 8%
Ron Paul ………………………………………………… 5%
Tim Pawlenty ………………………………………….. 4%
Mitt Romney……………………………………………. 15%
Donald Trump …………………………………………. 26%
Someone else/Undecided…………………………. 10%
Q10 Would you be willing or unwilling to support a
candidate for the Republican Presidential
nomination who firmly stated they believed
Barack Obama was born in the United States?
Willing to support a candidate for the
nomination who firmly stated they believed
Barack Obama was born in the United States…38%
Would be unwilling to……………………………….. 23%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 39%
Q11 Would you describe yourself as very liberal,
somewhat liberal, moderate, somewhat
conservative, or very conservative?
Very liberal ……………………………………………… 2%
Somewhat liberal …………………………………….. 5%
Moderate………………………………………………… 17%
Somewhat conservative……………………………. 44%
Very conservative ……………………………………. 31%
Q12 If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2.
Woman ………………………………………………….. 45%
Man……………………………………………………….. 55%
Q13 If you are 18 to 29 years old, press 1. If 30 to
45, press 2. If 46 to 65, press 3. If you are
older than 65, press 4.
18 to 29………………………………………………….. 8%
30 to 45………………………………………………….. 28%
46 to 65………………………………………………….. 40%
Older than 65………………………………………….. 24%
