Raleigh, N.C. –Though Kay Bailey Hutchison’s retirement created an open seat, in January it seemed as though Republicans would have no problem winning the race. However, the race has tightened considerably since then. Though the Republicans still have the advantage, if the Democrats run a strong candidate or draw a weak opponent, Texas could once again send a Democrat to the Senate.
Republican Lieutenant Governor David Dewhurst runs strongest. He leads actor Tommy Lee Jones 43-39, former general Ricardo Sanchez 45-37, and former Comptroller of Public Accounts John Sharp 43-37 (49-31 in January). Former Dallas Mayor Tom Leppert has a narrower lead, topping Jones 38-37, Sanchez 38-35, and Sharp 39-38 (42-30). Former Solicitor General Ted Cruz trails Jones 37-38, leads Sanchez 41-32, and leads Sharp 40-36. Though independents favor the Democrats in every matchup, neither party receives much crossover support, thus giving the Republicans the edge in a state where they have a 44-35 advantage.
None of the candidates are well known; Dewhurst is the only candidate a majority of voters are willing to give an opinion of. Among the voters who are willing to give an opinion, all politicians are in negative territory. Dewhurst is best liked among the Republicans with a favorability spread of only 27-28, followed by Leppert at 11-21, and Cruz at 6-19. Unlike the politicians, Jones is quite popular among those who will venture an opinion with a 28-14 spread. He is followed by Sharp at 19-20, and Sanchez at 15-18. Interestingly, Jones is just as popular among Republicans 25-12, as he is among Democrats 27-16. While Jones is popular across both parties before running for office, if he takes the plunge this crossover appeal might not last.
“Democrats would need a lot of things to break their way to pick up this seat but it’s not completely outside the realm of possibility,” said Dean Debnam, President of Public Policy Polling. “Certainly their prospects look better than they did earlier in the year.”
PPP surveyed 795 Texas voters from June 25th to 27th. The margin of error for the survey is +/-3.5%. This poll was not paid for or authorized by any campaign or political organization. PPP surveys are conducted through automated telephone interviews. PPP is a Democratic polling company, but polling expert Nate Silver of the New York Times found that its surveys in 2010 actually exhibited a slight bias toward Republican candidates.
Topline results are below. Full results, including crosstabs, can be found here.
Q1 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Ted Cruz?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 6%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 19%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 75%
Q2 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of David Dewhurst?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 27%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 28%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 45%
Q3 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Tommy Lee Jones?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 28%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 14%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 59%
Q4 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Tom Leppert?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 11%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 21%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 68%
Q5 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Ricardo Sanchez?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 15%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 18%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 67%
Q6 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of John Sharp?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 19%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 20%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 61%
Q7 If the candidates for US Senate next year were
Republican Ted Cruz and Democrat Tommy
Lee Jones, who would you vote for?
Ted Cruz ………………………………………………… 37%
Tommy Lee Jones……………………………………. 38%
Undecided………………………………………………. 25%
Q8 If the candidates for US Senate next year were
Republican Ted Cruz and Democrat Ricardo
Sanchez, who would you vote for?
Ted Cruz ………………………………………………… 41%
Ricardo Sanchez……………………………………… 32%
Undecided………………………………………………. 27%
Q9 If the candidates for US Senate next year were
Republican Ted Cruz and Democrat John
Sharp, who would you vote for?
Ted Cruz ………………………………………………… 40%
John Sharp …………………………………………….. 36%
Undecided………………………………………………. 25%
Q10 If the candidates for US Senate next year were
Republican David Dewhurst and Democrat
Tommy Lee Jones, who would you vote for?
David Dewhurst ………………………………………. 43%
Tommy Lee Jones……………………………………. 39%
Undecided………………………………………………. 18%
Q11 If the candidates for US Senate next year were
Republican David Dewhurst and Democrat
Ricardo Sanchez, who would you vote for?
David Dewhurst ………………………………………. 45%
Ricardo Sanchez……………………………………… 37%
Undecided………………………………………………. 18%
Q12 If the candidates for US Senate next year were
Republican David Dewhurst and Democrat
John Sharp, who would you vote for?
David Dewhurst ………………………………………. 43%
John Sharp …………………………………………….. 37%
Undecided………………………………………………. 19%
Q13 If the candidates for US Senate next year were
Republican Tom Leppert and Democrat Tommy
Lee Jones, who would you vote for?
Tom Leppert……………………………………………. 38%
Tommy Lee Jones……………………………………. 37%
Undecided………………………………………………. 26%
Q14 If the candidates for US Senate next year were
Republican Tom Leppert and Democrat
Ricardo Sanchez, who would you vote for?
Tom Leppert……………………………………………. 38%
Ricardo Sanchez……………………………………… 35%
Undecided………………………………………………. 27%
Q15 If the candidates for US Senate next year were
Republican Tom Leppert and Democrat John
Sharp, who would you vote for?
Tom Leppert……………………………………………. 39%
John Sharp …………………………………………….. 38%
Undecided………………………………………………. 23%
Q16 Who did you vote for President in 2008?
John McCain…………………………………………… 52%
Barack Obama………………………………………… 41%
Someone else/Don’t remember …………………. 7%
Q17 Would you describe yourself as very liberal,
somewhat liberal, moderate, somewhat
conservative, or very conservative?
Very liberal ……………………………………………… 6%
Somewhat liberal …………………………………….. 13%
Moderate………………………………………………… 29%
Somewhat conservative……………………………. 26%
Very conservative ……………………………………. 26%
Q18 If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2.
Woman ………………………………………………….. 55%
Man……………………………………………………….. 45%
Q19 If you are a Democrat, press 1. If a Republican,
press 2. If you are an independent or identify
with another party, press 3.
Democrat ……………………………………………….. 35%
Republican……………………………………………… 44%
Independent/Other…………………………………… 21%
Q20 If you are Hispanic, press 1. If white, press 2.
If African-American, press 3. If other, press 4.
Hispanic…………………………………………………. 22%
White …………………………………………………….. 64%
African-American …………………………………….. 10%
Other……………………………………………………… 4%
Q21 If you are 18 to 29 years old, press 1. If 30 to
45, press 2. If 46 to 65, press 3. If you are
older than 65, press 4.
18 to 29………………………………………………….. 14%
30 to 45………………………………………………….. 20%
46 to 65………………………………………………….. 44%
Older than 65………………………………………….. 22%
