Raleigh, N.C. – Perhaps the clearest indication of the weakness of the Republican field is their performance in ruby red Texas. Texas wants to be rid of President Obama with only 42% approving of his performance and a 55% majority disapproving. However, it would be a single digit race against any of Obama’s perspective Republican opponents. Obama performs weakest against Mitt Romney, trailing 42-50 (49-42 in January). Obama trails native son Ron Paul 40-45, Michele Bachmann 44-47, and Tim Pawlenty 43-44. Obama ties Herman Cain 43-43, and leads Sarah Palin 46-44 (46-47) and Texas Governor Rick Perry 47-45 (45-45).
Bachmann is the most popular Republican contender and the only one in positive territory with a 39-36 favorability rating. She is followed by Romney at 37-43, Cain at 27-33, Pawlenty at 22-37, Paul at 30-46, and Palin at 37-55. Perry is also unpopular with 43% approving and 52% disapproving of his performance. Texans are even less enthusiastic about a Perry candidacy for Presidency with only 33% saying he should run and 59% saying he shouldn’t. Republicans do want him to run though, 52-38.
Perry brought national attention upon himself two years ago by hinting about possible Texas secession. Unsurprisingly, secession isn’t popular even in Texas. Only 18% of Texans feel that Texas should secede while 71% oppose such a move. Another 11% aren’t sure. Support is stronger within the party of Lincoln where 25% back secession. There is clear divide between those who support and oppose secession in their choice for president. In the matchup between Perry and Obama, secessionists support Perry 73-19 while those who want to stay in the US support Obama 56-37.
“Rick Perry may prove to be a strong candidate for President in other places,” said Dean Debnam, President of Public Policy Polling. “But the home state voters who know him best aren’t showing a lot of support for a White House bid.”
PPP surveyed 795 Texas voters from June 25th to 27th. The margin of error for the survey is +/-3.5%. This poll was not paid for or authorized by any campaign or political organization. PPP surveys are conducted through automated telephone interviews. PPP is a Democratic polling company, but polling expert Nate Silver of the New York Times found that its surveys in 2010 actually exhibited a slight bias toward Republican candidates.
Topline results are below. Full results, including crosstabs, can be found here.
Q1 Do you approve or disapprove of President
Barack Obama’s job performance?
Approve …………………………………………………. 42%
Disapprove……………………………………………… 55%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 3%
Q2 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Michele Bachmann?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 39%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 36%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 25%
Q3 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Herman Cain?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 27%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 33%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 40%
Q4 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Sarah Palin?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 37%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 55%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 8%
Q5 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Tim Pawlenty?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 22%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 37%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 41%
Q6 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Mitt Romney?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 37%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 43%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 20%
Q7 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Ron Paul?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 30%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 46%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 24%
Q8 Do you approve or disapprove of Governor
Rick Perry’s job performance?
Approve …………………………………………………. 43%
Disapprove……………………………………………… 52%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 4%
Q9 Do you think Rick Perry should run for
president next year, or not?
He should run …………………………………………. 33%
He should not………………………………………….. 59%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 8%
Q10 If the candidates for President next year were
Democrat Barack Obama and Republican
Michele Bachmann, who would you vote for?
Barack Obama………………………………………… 44%
Michele Bachmann ………………………………….. 47%
Undecided………………………………………………. 9%
Q11 If the candidates for President next year were
Democrat Barack Obama and Republican
Herman Cain, who would you vote for?
Barack Obama………………………………………… 43%
Herman Cain…………………………………………… 43%
Undecided………………………………………………. 14%
Q12 If the candidates for President next year were
Democrat Barack Obama and Republican
Sarah Palin, who would you vote for?
Barack Obama………………………………………… 46%
Sarah Palin …………………………………………….. 44%
Undecided………………………………………………. 10%
Q13 If the candidates for President next year were
Democrat Barack Obama and Republican Tim
Pawlenty, who would you vote for?
Barack Obama………………………………………… 43%
Tim Pawlenty ………………………………………….. 44%
Undecided………………………………………………. 13%
Q14 If the candidates for President next year were
Democrat Barack Obama and Republican Mitt
Romney, who would you vote for?
Barack Obama………………………………………… 42%
Mitt Romney……………………………………………. 50%
Undecided………………………………………………. 9%
Q15 If the candidates for President next year were
Democrat Barack Obama and Republican Ron
Paul, who would you vote for?
Barack Obama………………………………………… 40%
Ron Paul ………………………………………………… 45%
Undecided………………………………………………. 15%
Q16 If the candidates for President next year were
Democrat Barack Obama and Republican Rick
Perry, who would you vote for?
Barack Obama………………………………………… 47%
Rick Perry ………………………………………………. 45%
Undecided………………………………………………. 8%
Q17 Do you think Texas should secede from the
United States, or not?
Texas should secede ……………………………….. 18%
It should not ……………………………………………. 71%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 11%
Q18 Who did you vote for President in 2008?
John McCain…………………………………………… 52%
Barack Obama………………………………………… 41%
Someone else/Don’t remember …………………. 7%
Q19 Would you describe yourself as very liberal,
somewhat liberal, moderate, somewhat
conservative, or very conservative?
Very liberal ……………………………………………… 6%
Somewhat liberal …………………………………….. 13%
Moderate………………………………………………… 29%
Somewhat conservative……………………………. 26%
Very conservative ……………………………………. 26%
Q20 If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2.
Woman ………………………………………………….. 55%
Man……………………………………………………….. 45%
Q21 If you are a Democrat, press 1. If a Republican,
press 2. If you are an independent or identify
with another party, press 3.
Democrat ……………………………………………….. 35%
Republican……………………………………………… 44%
Independent/Other…………………………………… 21%
Q22 If you are Hispanic, press 1. If white, press 2.
If African-American, press 3. If other, press 4.
Hispanic…………………………………………………. 22%
White …………………………………………………….. 64%
African-American …………………………………….. 10%
Other……………………………………………………… 4%
Q23 If you are 18 to 29 years old, press 1. If 30 to
45, press 2. If 46 to 65, press 3. If you are
older than 65, press 4.
18 to 29………………………………………………….. 14%
30 to 45………………………………………………….. 20%
46 to 65………………………………………………….. 44%
Older than 65………………………………………….. 22%
