Raleigh, N.C. – Unsurprisingly in a red state with 20 of 32 U.S. House seats held by Republicans, the GOP leads the generic congressional ballot in Texas, 52-39. Luckily for Democrats, only two of their 12 seats, those held by Ciro Rodriguez and Chet Edwards, are considered particularly vulnerable to a party switch. The GOP lead comes entirely from their 17-point turnout advantage, as 90% of each party’s faithful are supporting their respective candidates, and Democrats actually have a 39-37 edge with independents.
If the numbers released yesterday for Kay Bailey Hutchison among usual Republican primary voters were bad, things are worse for her with this year’s general electorate. Hutchison’s overall approval rating sits at 42-40, but the worst results for the 17-year Washington veteran come as she looks toward the next cycle. Despite indicating while she was challenging Rick Perry in this spring’s gubernatorial primary that she would resign her seat or not run again in 2012, she has since gone back on that pledge after being soundly defeated in that race. Republicans are only tepidly in favor of her running again, 47-33, but Democrats, at 67%, and independents, at 52%, are decisively opposed to her candidacy for a fourth full term in the Senate.
By a 51-41 margin, Texans think George W. Bush was the better of their favorite-son presidents between #43 and Lyndon Johnson. As in the gubernatorial and congressional contests, the divide comes from the Republicans’ registration dominance in what was a Democratic stronghold in LBJ’s day. Democrats and Republicans overwhelmingly choose their guy, and Johnson has an overwhelming 55-34 favor with unaffiliateds. In almost any other state, LBJ would be the hands-down winner with those internals.
“Texas is one state where Democrats are already so underrepresented in Congress that they can’t be in for much harm this fall, and Republicans Rick Perry and Kay Bailey Hutchison are the ones who should be worried about their futures,” said Dean Debnam, President of Public Policy Polling.
PPP surveyed 538 likely Texas voters from September 2nd to 6th. The margin of error for the survey is +/-4.2%. Other factors, such as refusal to be interviewed and weighting, may introduce additional error that is more difficult to quantify.
If you would like an interview regarding this release, please contact Dean Debnam at (888) 621-6988 or 919-880-4888.
Topline results are below. Full results, including crosstabs, can be found here.
Q1 Do you approve or disapprove of Barack
Obama’s job performance?
Approve …………………………………………………. 40%
Disapprove……………………………………………… 55%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 5%
Q2 Do you support or oppose President Obama’s
health care plan, or do you not have an
opinion?
Support ………………………………………………….. 35%
Oppose ………………………………………………….. 54%
No opinion………………………………………………. 11%
Q3 Do you approve or disapprove of Senator Kay
Bailey Hutchison’s job performance?
Approve …………………………………………………. 42%
Disapprove……………………………………………… 40%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 18%
Q4 Do you think Kay Bailey Hutchison should run
for reelection in 2012?
Yes………………………………………………………… 36%
No …………………………………………………………. 48%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 16%
Q5 Do you think that Kay Bailey Hutchison is too
liberal, too conservative, or about right?
Too liberal ………………………………………………. 24%
Too conservative……………………………………… 26%
About right ……………………………………………… 35%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 15%
Q6 Do you approve or disapprove of Senator John
Cornyn’s job performance?
Approve …………………………………………………. 37%
Disapprove……………………………………………… 33%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 30%
Q7 If there was an election for Congress today,
would you vote Democratic or Republican?
Democratic……………………………………………… 39%
Republican……………………………………………… 52%
Undecided………………………………………………. 9%
Q8 Do you think Texas should secede from the
United States?
Yes………………………………………………………… 15%
No …………………………………………………………. 72%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 13%
Q9 Who do you think was the better President
from Texas: Lyndon Johnson or George W.
Bush?
Lyndon Johnson………………………………………. 41%
George W. Bush ……………………………………… 51%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 7%
Q10 Looking back on George W. Bush’s time as
President would you rate his performance as
excellent, good, fair, or poor?
Excellent ………………………………………………… 9%
Good……………………………………………………… 36%
Fair ……………………………………………………….. 23%
Poor ………………………………………………………. 31%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 1%
Q11 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Roger Clemens?
Favorable ………….. 19%
Unfavorable……….. 27%
Not sure ……………. 54%
Q12 Do you think Roger Clemens used steroids to
prolong his career?
Yes………………………………………………………… 37%
No …………………………………………………………. 15%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 47%
Q13 Who did you vote for President in 2008?
John McCain…………………………………………… 52%
Barack Obama………………………………………… 41%
Someone else/Don’t remember …………………. 7%
Q14 If you are a liberal, press 1. If a moderate,
press 2. If a conservative, press 3.
Liberal ……………………………………………………. 15%
Moderate………………………………………………… 39%
Conservative…………………………………………… 47%
Q15 If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2.
Woman ………………………………………………….. 54%
Man……………………………………………………….. 46%
Q16 If you are a Democrat, press 1. If a Republican,
press 2. If you are an independent or identify
with another party, press 3.
Democrat ……………………………………………….. 30%
Republican……………………………………………… 47%
Independent/Other…………………………………… 23%
Q17 If you are Hispanic, press 1. If white, press 2.
If African-American, press 3. If other, press 4.
Hispanic…………………………………………………. 16%
White …………………………………………………….. 70%
African-American …………………………………….. 10%
Other……………………………………………………… 4%
Q18 If you are 18 to 29 years old, press 1 now. If
you are 30 to 45, press 2. If you are 46 to 65,
press 3. If older, press 4.
18 to 29………………………………………………….. 6%
30 to 45………………………………………………….. 30%
46 to 65………………………………………………….. 39%
Older than 65………………………………………….. 25%