Raleigh, N.C. – For the first time in four polls of the race, Denny Rehberg does not have the advantage in his bid to topple freshman Montana Sen. Jon Tester. In each of the previous three polls, conducted between November 2010 and November 2011, Rehberg had led Tester by exactly two points. Now Tester leads Rehberg by five points, 48-43.
Most of the movement comes with independents, who favored Tester by five points last time but 12 points now. Independents make up a 37% plurality of the electorate. He is also consolding his intraparty support; 90% of Democrats are now behind Tester, versus 86% five months ago. Democrats are a 30% minority, so Tester needs to maintain that advantage with nonpartisans to win. Rehberg has an 85-8 edge with the GOP, roughly the same as in November. The race should tighten once undecided Republicans come off the fence.
Tester’s job performance numbers are essentially unchanged from last November. 46% approved in both polls. 42% disapproved then, and 43% now. Rehberg’s approval figures are just slightly down from 41-47 to 39-49 in that timeframe.
“Momentum is on Jon Tester’s side in the Montana Senate race,” said Dean Debnam, President of Public Policy Polling. “But the bottom line remains that this will one of the most closely contested Senate races in the country.”
The good news for Republicans is that they have a slight edge in the so-far low-profile race to succeed Rehberg in Congress. Steve Daines leads Democratic frontrunner Kim Gillan by six points (33-27) and Franke Wilmer by 11 (36-25). 73% to 79% of voters have no opinion about any of the three personally, so about 40% are still undecided in either matchup. With Democratic primary voters, Gillan has 21% to Diane Smith’s 13%, Wilmer’s 11%, Dave Strohmaier’s 9%, with three others in the low single digits and 41% undecided. The primary is on June 5th.
PPP surveyed 934 Montana voters, including 332 usual Democratic primary voters, from April 26th to 29th. The margin of error for the overall survey is +/-3.2%, and +/-5.4% for the primary portion. This poll was not paid for or authorized by any campaign or political organization. PPP surveys are conducted through automated telephone interviews. PPP is a Democratic polling company, but polling expert Nate Silver of the New York Times found that its surveys in 2010 actually exhibited a slight bias toward Republican candidates.
Topline results are below. Full results, including crosstabs, can be found here.
Q1 Do you approve or disapprove of Senator Jon
Tester’s job performance?
Approve …………….. .46%
Disapprove…………. .43%
Not sure …………….. .11%
Q2 Do you approve or disapprove of
Congressman Denny Rehberg’s job
performance?
Approve …………….. .39%
Disapprove…………. .49%
Not sure …………….. .12%
Q3 If the candidates for Senate this fall were
Democrat Jon Tester and Republican Denny
Rehberg, who would you vote for?
Jon Tester ………….. .48%
Denny Rehberg…… .43%
Undecided………….. . 9%
Q4 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Steve Daines?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 9%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 17%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 73%
Q5 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Kim Gillan?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 9%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 13%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 77%
Q6 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Franke Wilmer?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 10%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 11%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 79%
Q7 If the candidates for Congress this fall were
Republican Steve Daines and Democrat Kim
Gillan, who would you vote for?
Steve Daines ………………………………………….. 33%
Kim Gillan ………………………………………………. 27%
Undecided………………………………………………. 40%
Q8 If the candidates for Congress this fall were
Republican Steve Daines and Democrat
Franke Wilmer, who would you vote for?
Steve Daines ………………………………………….. 36%
Franke Wilmer ………………………………………… 25%
Undecided………………………………………………. 39%
Q9 The Democratic candidates for Congress are
Kim Gillan, Sam Rankin, Diane Smith, Dave
Strohmaier, Rob Stutz, Jason Ward, and
Franke Wilmer. If the election was today, who
would you vote for? (Asked of 332 Democratic
primary voters)
Kim Gillan ………………………………………………. 21%
Sam Rankin ……………………………………………. 4%
Diane Smith ……………………………………………. 13%
Dave Strohmaier……………………………………… 9%
Rob Stutz……………………………………………….. 1%
Jason Ward…………………………………………….. 0%
Franke Wilmer ………………………………………… 11%
Undecided………………………………………………. 41%
Q10 Who did you vote for President in 2008?
John McCain…………………………………………… 45%
Barack Obama………………………………………… 42%
Someone else/Don’t remember …………………. 13%
Q11 Would you describe yourself as very liberal,
somewhat liberal, moderate, somewhat
conservative, or very conservative?
Very liberal ……………………………………………… 8%
Somewhat liberal …………………………………….. 16%
Moderate………………………………………………… 32%
Somewhat conservative……………………………. 26%
Very conservative ……………………………………. 18%
Q12 If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2.
Woman ………………………………………………….. 53%
Man……………………………………………………….. 47%
Q13 If you are a Democrat, press 1. If a Republican,
press 2. If you are an independent or identify
with another party, press 3.
Democrat ……………………………………………….. 30%
Republican……………………………………………… 33%
Independent/Other…………………………………… 37%
Q14 If you are white, press 1. If other, press 2.
White …………………………………………………….. 89%
Other……………………………………………………… 11%
Q15 If you are 18 to 29 years old, press 1. If 30 to
45, press 2. If 46 to 65, press 3. If you are
older than 65, press 4.
18 to 29………………………………………………….. 13%
30 to 45………………………………………………….. 31%
46 to 65………………………………………………….. 36%
Older than 65………………………………………….. 20%