Raleigh, N.C. – The Tea Party movement had a string of successes deposing incumbent and establishment Republicans in primaries last year. At the moment, former Virginia Senator George Allen is in strong shape to head off serious opposition.
PPP has tested hypothetical “more conservative challengers” against a number of favorites for the GOP nomination for various offices in several states. Invariably, that generic rightwinger does quite well, even if the more establishment figure is well-liked and well ahead of named opponents. But Allen routs on this question by more than a 2:1 margin. 52% of Virginia’s GOP primary voters would still favor their former senator and governor over this unspecified spoiler, who gets the support of only 25%. The gap closes a bit with the 38% who say they are very conservative, but he still leads 45-31.
Part of the reason: 68% have a favorable view of Allen, and only 15% have a negative opinion. Similarly, 69% think his views are “about right,” as opposed to only 9% seeing him as too liberal and an equal share thinking him too conservative. Maine’s Olympia Snowe is losing to her generic “more conservative challenger” in a recent PPP poll because she is seen as too liberal and too cozy with Democrats, but Allen’s voters evidently do not have concerns about his conservative bona fides.
In a field that includes four potential primary opponents, Allen trounces. A full two-thirds want him to be their nominee to replace Jim Webb next year. 7% favor Del. Bob Marshall, 4% Tea Party leader Jamie Radtke, and 3% each county executive Corey Stewart and attorney David McCormick. Radtke and McCormick are the only announced candidates so far. McCormick’s favorability was not tested, but more than three-quarters of even these hardcore voters are not familiar with Radkte or Marshall, and both are seen slightly negatively. They have room to grow, but Allen starts out in formidable shape.
“The threat of a Tea Party challenge to George Allen has been pretty overblown,” said Dean Debnam, President of Public Policy Polling. “He’s a lot more immune to that than most establishment Republican politicians are.”
The presidential contest in the state is fairly close, with the top four in a statistical tie. Mike Huckabee leads with 20% to Mitt Romney and Sarah Palin each at 16%, and Newt Gingrich at 14%. Lagging are Ron Paul (8%), Mitch Daniels (7%), and Tim Pawlenty and Haley Barbour (each 4%).
PPP surveyed 400 usual Virginia Republican primary voters from February 24th to 27th. The survey’s margin of error is +/-4.9%. Other factors, such as refusal to be interviewed and weighting, may introduce additional error that is more difficult to quantify.
Topline results are below. Full results, including crosstabs, can be found here.
Q1 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Newt Gingrich?
Favorable ………….. 54%
Unfavorable……….. 29%
Not sure ……………. 17%
Q2 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Mike Huckabee?
Favorable ………….. 68%
Unfavorable……….. 20%
Not sure ……………. 12%
Q3 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Sarah Palin?
Favorable ………….. 63%
Unfavorable……….. 29%
Not sure ……………. 7%
Q4 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Mitt Romney?
Favorable ………….. 58%
Unfavorable……….. 23%
Not sure ……………. 19%
Q5 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of George Allen?
Favorable ………….. 68%
Unfavorable……….. 15%
Not sure ……………. 18%
Q6 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Bob Marshall?
Favorable ………….. 11%
Unfavorable……….. 14%
Not sure ……………. 74%
Q7 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Jamie Radtke?
Favorable ………….. 8%
Unfavorable……….. 13%
Not sure ……………. 78%
Q8 Between George Allen, Bob Marshall, David
McCormick, Jamie Radtke, and Corey Stewart
who would you most like to see as the
Republican candidate for Senate next year?
George Allen…………………………………………… 67%
Bob Marshall…………………………………………… 7%
David McCormick…………………………………….. 3%
Jamie Radtke………………………………………….. 4%
Corey Stewart …………………………………………. 3%
Someone else/Not sure ……………………………. 18%
Q9 Do you think George Allen is too liberal, too
conservative, or about right?
Too liberal ………………………………………………. 9%
Too conservative……………………………………… 9%
About right ……………………………………………… 69%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 12%
Q10 Generally speaking would you prefer that the
Republican nominee for Senate next year was
George Allen, or someone more conservative
than him?
George Allen…………………………………………… 52%
Someone more conservative …………………….. 25%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 23%
Q11 If the Republican candidates for President in
2012 were Haley Barbour, Mitch Daniels, Newt
Gingrich, Mike Huckabee, Sarah Palin, Ron
Paul, Tim Pawlenty, and Mitt Romney who
would you vote for?
Haley Barbour…………………………………………. 4%
Mitch Daniels ………………………………………….. 7%
Newt Gingrich …………………………………………. 14%
Mike Huckabee ……………………………………….. 20%
Sarah Palin …………………………………………….. 16%
Ron Paul ………………………………………………… 8%
Tim Pawlenty ………………………………………….. 4%
Mitt Romney……………………………………………. 16%
Someone else/Undecided…………………………. 11%
Q12 Would you describe yourself as very liberal,
somewhat liberal, moderate, somewhat
conservative, or very conservative?
Very liberal ……………………………………………… 2%
Somewhat liberal …………………………………….. 3%
Moderate………………………………………………… 18%
Somewhat conservative……………………………. 38%
Very conservative ……………………………………. 38%
Q13 If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2.
Woman ………………………………………………….. 47%
Man……………………………………………………….. 53%
Q14 If you are 18 to 29 years old, press 1. If 30 to
45, press 2. If 46 to 65, press 3. If you are
older than 65, press 4.
18 to 29………………………………………………….. 10%
30 to 45………………………………………………….. 30%
46 to 65………………………………………………….. 38%
Older than 65………………………………………….. 22%
