PPP’s newest national poll finds a record level of support for impeaching Donald Trump. 49% of voters support impeaching him, to 41% who are opposed to doing so. This marks the 6th month in a row we’ve found a plurality of voters in favor of impeaching Trump, and it’s the closest we’ve found to a majority.
Trump’s approval rating has declined by a net 7 points in the last month. In September we found him at a -11 spread with 42% of voters approving of him to 53% who disapproved. Now he’s at -18 with 38% of voters approving of him to 56% who disapprove.
Trump claimed last week that he had accomplished more in 9 months than any President in American History, but only 25% of voters believe that claim to 66% who do not, although it’s a notable measure of the ‘Trump cult’ that 55% of those who voted for him do believe he’s the most accomplished to 32% who disagree. Voters actually put his first 9 months in a very different historical context- 49% already say they think he’s the worst President in American History, to 43% who dispute that notion. By a 54/40 margin voters wish Barack Obama was still President instead of Trump, and by a 48/42 spread they wish Hillary Clinton was in the White House rather than Trump.
Trump fares poorly on a number of metrics we tested in the poll. Only 37% of voters think he’s honest, to 56% who say he’s not. In fact a 52% majority come right out and say they think Trump is a liar, to 41% who disagree with that characterization. There are continued transparency concerns, with 60% of voters thinking he needs to release his tax returns to just 32% who don’t think it’s necessary for him to. And only 31% of voters think Trump has delivered on the core promise of his campaign to ‘Make America Great Again,’ to 60% who say he’s failed on that front.
Trump is already in a very bad position when it comes to hypothetical match ups for reelection in 2020. He trails Joe Biden by 18 at 56/38, Bernie Sanders by 15 at 53/38, Cory Booker by 11 at 49/38, Elizabeth Warren by 10 at 50/40, Kirsten Gillibrand by 10 at 48/38, Kamala Harris by 6 at 45/39, and Frederica Wilson by 3 at 42/39. While the support level for the possible Democrats fluctuates likely based on name recognition Trump polls consistently in the 38-40% range no matter who he’s pitted against. It’s also interesting that the hierarchy of Democratic performance goes white men->black man->white women->women of color.
Attempts by Trump world, Fox News, and other affiliated interests to try to turn the Russia news back onto Hillary Clinton have had some effect. A month ago we found that among Trump voters 41% thought Russia wanted Clinton to win the election last year, to 29% who thought it wanted Trump to win. Now that’s up to 56% who think Russia wanted Clinton to win and just 18% who grant that it wanted Trump to win.
That’s part of a general pattern when it comes to Trump voters and the Russia story. Only 7% believe that members of Trump’s campaign team worked in association with Russia to help him win the election, to 83% who don’t think that happened. And even if collusion is proven they don’t care- just 11% think Trump should resign if that’s the case to 79% who believe he should remain in office. 75% dismiss the entire Russia story as ‘fake news,’ to 13% who disagree with that assessment. This poll was conducted mostly after the news that indictments were coming was out, but before the actual indictments were released.
The Trump base is reflexively lining up behind him on Russia issues. The issues that are actually getting relatively tepid support from his base and causing his numbers to go into the ground are things like tax reform and health care. Just 29% of voters support the Congressional Republicans’ tax plan to 49% who are opposed to it, and even among Trump voters there’s just 61% support. 53% of voters think it will mostly help the rich to 28% who believe middle income families will be the biggest beneficiaries, and 7% who think it will be low income families.
Trump and Republicans do similarly poorly when it comes to their efforts on health care. 51% of voters now support the Affordable Care Act to just 33% who oppose it, reflecting its increased popularity this year in the wake of efforts to repeal it. Even among Trump voters there is now only 61% opposition to the ACA. Only 32% of voters think the best path forward on health care is repeal of the ACA, to 61% who think it should be kept with fixes made to it as necessary.
Another issue where Congressional Republicans could possibly run afoul of voters is the Iran deal. By a 19 point margin voters say they’d be less likely to vote for a member of Congress who voted to take action that could cause the collapse of the deal- 45% would be less likely to vote for such a person to 26% who would be more likely to.
We continue to find Democrats with a double digit lead on the generic Congressional ballot, 50-40. The unpopularity of things like the Republican tax plan are helping to drive that advantage- by a 15 point margin voters say they’re less likely to vote for a member of Congress next year who supported the plan.
Congress as a whole stands at a 9/77 approval rating with Mitch McConnell at 11/68 and Paul Ryan at 22/60 not faring a whole lot better individually. They’ve both managed to be unpopular with Trump voters (13/65 for McConnell and 34/44 for Ryan) and Clinton voters (6/76 for McConnell and 9/78 for Ryan) alike.
Other notes from our national poll:
-Trump’s position with Republicans has weakened some from a month ago as well. He leads a generic Republican for the nomination next time by 21 points at 57/36. In September it was 34 points at 61/27. He leads Mike Pence by 25 at 53/28, Ted Cruz by 30 at 57/27, and John Kasich by 42 at 66/24. On our last poll he was up 38 on Pence at 59/21, 53 on Cruz at 68/15, and 50 on Kasich at 68/18. We also tested Jeff Flake for the first time this month, but Trump has the widest lead over him by 56 points at 70/14.
-Trump has tried to make the media his new foil over the course of the year without Hillary Clinton to kick around anymore (or at least as much) but he’s not succeeding. Voters trust each of the 6 media outlets Trump has attacked the most by 15-18 points more than Trump when pitted against each other. It’s an 18 point edge for each of NBC, ABC, and CBS (54/36), 17 for the New York Times (54/37), and 15 each for CNN and the Washington Post (52/37):
|Which do you trust more:
Donald Trump or…
|New York Times||New York Times, 54/37|
|Washington Post||Washington Post, 52/37|
-89% of voters think the US government should provide hurricane relief to Puerto Rico, to only 6% who are opposed. In fact 36% think Puerto Rico should be the main focus of disaster recovery aid among the three places most hard hit by recent storms to 16% for Texas and 9% for Florida. Polling just after Hurricane Maria found that many Americans did not know that Puerto Ricans were American citizens, but now 77% consider Puerto Ricans to be American citizens to only 16% who disagree. Clinton voters consider Puerto Ricans to be American citizens 91/5, while Trump voters do so just 61/31.
-A rare thing where Trump may antagonize his base is bragging about his Ivy League education. Overall 40% of voters view Ivy League schools favorably to 32% with a negative opinion. There’s a significant political divide on them with Clinton voters viewing them favorably 52/15, while Trump voters see them negatively 28/51.
And finally we polled on some important Halloween issues:
-Americans give Candy Corn a 53/28 favorability rating. Trump voters (62/19) are more excited about it than Clinton voters (47/35).
-Americans are sort of over the Pumpkin Spice craze- Pumpkin Spice lattes get a 25/49 favorability rating with disdain for them carrying across party lines.
-48% of voters think it’s appropriate to dress up as someone from a different racial background, to 26% who think it’s inappropriate. Trump voters think it’s acceptable by a 58/18 spread, while Clinton voters are evenly divided on it (36/36).
-Finally we tested Donald Trump against a litany of Halloween related things and asked voters which they thought was scarier between Trump and the items. Voters think Trump is scarier than ghosts (49/40), vampires (48/40), mummies (also 48/40), witches (49/42), zombies (46/43), and werewolves (45/44). People aren’t messing around with the devil though- they say he is scarier than Trump by a 51/31 spread:
|Which do you think is scarier:
Donald Trump or…
|And the scarier one is…|
Full results here