Raleigh, N.C. – As we’re finding in our polling across the country right now voters in Iowa are moving more and more in support of gay marriage to the point where they’re now almost evenly divided on the issue. 44% of voters think it should be legal, while 45% believe it should be illegal. That represents a six point shift on the margin from when we polled the state in October and found 41% of voters supportive and 48% opposed.
Gay marriage has been legal for a few years in Iowa now and 62% of voters say that it’s had no impact on their lives one way or the other. 24% claim it’s had a negative effect while 14% say it’s a positive thing. We’ve never found a very significant portion of voters in a state that has gay marriage say it’s had a bad effect on them.
71% of voters support either gay marriage or civil unions with only 27% opposed to any sort of legal recognition for same sex couples. Even Republicans support some kind of legal recognition by a 52/45 margin.
2014 is a long way off but for now it looks like the race for Governor could be a dog fight. Voters in the state are evenly divided on Terry Branstad’s job performance with 43% approving and an equal 43% disapproving of him. Branstad would find himself with small lead over 2010 opponent Chet Culver (44-42) or Congressman Bruce Braley (44-40). In a clash of the titans between Branstad and his original successor, Tom Vilsack, the Democrat would have the edge by a 46-43 margin. Vilsack has a 45/35 favorability rating six years after leaving office.
Tom Harkin’s in a little better shape than Branstad if he decides to run again. He would have a 9 point lead over Congressman Tom Latham (46-37) and an 11 point advantage over Congressman Steve King (48-37). Latham is unknown to a majority of voters in the state while King is unpopular, sporting a 25/38 favorability rating. If Branstad tried to trade up from Governor to the Senate, he would trail Harkin 46-41.
PPP surveyed 1,181 Iowa voters between May 3rd and 6th. The margin of error for the survey is +/-2.85%. This poll was not paid for or authorized by any campaign or political organization. PPP is a Democratic polling company, but polling expert Nate Silver of the New York Times found that its surveys in 2010 actually exhibited a slight bias toward Republican candidates.
Topline results are below. Full results, including crosstabs, can be found here.
Q1 Do you approve or disapprove of Governor
Terry Branstad’s job performance?
Approve …………………………………………………. 43%
Disapprove……………………………………………… 43%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 14%
Q2 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Steve King?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 25%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 38%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 37%
Q3 Do you approve or disapprove of Senator
Charles Grassley’s job performance?
Approve …………….. .50%
Disapprove…………. .33%
Not sure …………….. .16%
Q4 Do you approve or disapprove of Senator Tom
Harkin’s job performance?
Approve …………….. .45%
Disapprove…………. .39%
Not sure …………….. .16%
Q5 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Tom Latham?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 22%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 22%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 56%
Q6 If the candidates for US Senate in 2014 were
Democrat Tom Harkin and Republican Steve
King, who would you vote for?
Tom Harkin……………………………………………… 48%
Steve King ……………………………………………… 37%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 15%
Q7 If the candidates for US Senate in 2014 were
Democrat Tom Harkin and Republican Tom
Latham, who would you vote for?
Tom Harkin……………………………………………… 46%
Tom Latham……………………………………………. 37%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 17%
Q8 If the candidates for US Senate in 2014 were
Democrat Tom Harkin and Republican Terry
Branstad, who would you vote for?
Tom Harkin……………………………………………… 46%
Terry Branstad ………………………………………… 41%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 12%
Q9 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Bruce Braley?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 22%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 18%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 60%
Q10 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Chet Culver?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 36%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 41%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 23%
Q11 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Tom Vilsack?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 45%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 35%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 20%
Q12 If the candidates for Governor in 2014 were
Republican Terry Branstad and Democrat
Bruce Braley, who would you vote for?
Terry Branstad ………………………………………… 44%
Bruce Braley …………………………………………… 40%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 16%
Q13 If the candidates for Governor in 2014 were
Republican Terry Branstad and Democrat Chet
Culver, who would you vote for?
Terry Branstad ………………………………………… 44%
Chet Culver…………………………………………….. 42%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 14%
Q14 If the candidates for Governor in 2014 were
Republican Terry Branstad and Democrat Tom
Vilsack, who would you vote for?
Terry Branstad ………………………………………… 43%
Tom Vilsack…………………………………………….. 46%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 11%
Q15 If there was an election for the state legislature
today, would you vote Democratic or
Republican?
Democratic……………………………………………… 44%
Republican……………………………………………… 39%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 17%
Q16 Do you think same-sex marriage should be
legal or illegal?
Legal……………………………………………………… 44%
Illegal …………………………………………………….. 45%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 11%
Q17 Which of the following best describes your
opinion on gay marriage: gay couples should
be allowed to legally marry, or gay couples
should be allowed to form civil unions but not
legally marry, or there should be no legal
recognition of a gay couple’s relationship?
Gay couples should be allowed to legally
marry ……………………………………………………..39%
Gay couples should be allowed to form civil
unions but not marry …………………………………32%
There should be no legal recognition of a gay
couple’s relationship …………………………………27%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 3%
Q18 Has the legalization of gay marriage in Iowa
had a positive or negative impact on your life,
or has it not had any impact at all?
Positive ………………………………………………….. 14%
Negative…………………………………………………. 24%
No impact at all ……………………………………….. 62%
Q19 Who did you vote for President in 2008?
John McCain…………………………………………… 40%
Barack Obama………………………………………… 51%
Someone else/Don’t remember …………………. 9%
Q20 Would you describe yourself as very liberal,
somewhat liberal, moderate, somewhat
conservative, or very conservative?
Very liberal ……………………………………………… 10%
Somewhat liberal …………………………………….. 18%
Moderate………………………………………………… 30%
Somewhat conservative……………………………. 24%
Very conservative ……………………………………. 19%
Q21 If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2.
Woman ………………………………………………….. 51%
Man……………………………………………………….. 49%
Q22 If you are a Democrat, press 1. If a Republican,
press 2. If you are an independent or identify
with another party, press 3.
Democrat ……………………………………………….. 36%
Republican……………………………………………… 37%
Independent/Other…………………………………… 27%
Q23 If you are white, press 1. If other, press 2.
White …………………………………………………….. 91%
Other……………………………………………………… 9%
Q24 If you are 18 to 29 years old, press 1. If 30 to
45, press 2. If 46 to 65, press 3. If you are
older than 65, press 4.
18 to 29………………………………………………….. 12%
30 to 45………………………………………………….. 22%
46 to 65………………………………………………….. 41%
Older than 65………………………………………….. 25%
